Transcript Presentation - The Vulcan Project

High resolution fossil\industrial CO2:
Historical Context
Kevin Gurney
Purdue University
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science
Purdue Climate Change Research Center
A52B: Frost & Petron presiding
……..In place of talk by Blasing and
colleagues
Posters and talks
9 excellent posters yesterday (A41C-0042 to 0049)
6 talks this morning
 Global
 Regional: Asia, Europe
 Urban: Salt Lake
 Methodological: Radon/14C, air quality, energy
sales/consumption
This session and the work in recent years heralds a
renewed interest in the topic and a broadening of
motivations and methods
History: evolution of estimates
Motivation:
 Explain observed CO2 rise
 Support climate change projections
Work in the 1980s:
 Keeling: (1978)
 Rotty: global national inventory
 Marland:
 Global 0-D UN production for years 1950-1982
 UN “consumption” @ 5º x 5º for average year
Evolution of estimates continued
Marland and Rotty, 1984 using consumption
5º x 5º with population  and industrial concentration
Adding more space & time
Rotty: seasonal global and regional (captured ~87% of globe)
Found ptp of 24% of the annual mean.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Andres et al., 1996: moved to 1º x 1º with decadel res time
series
EDGAR in the late 1990s - more sectoral/fuel detail
Other disciplines
Atm chemistry campaigns: Trace-P

Modeling efforts

NOx, CO, VOCs
IPCC: integrated assessment - combining
socioeconomics and energy systems analysis
(we’ll come back to this)
We thought we were done!
By the 00’s, the carbon cycle community considered
the fossil CO2 problem “solved” at least to the
extent that was needed.
Focus on “missing sink”, terrestrial net uptake
What have we been using?
1 degree resolution
Sales, consumption at
national level with pop for
proxy spatial
Why is this no longer adequate?
1. Inversions moving to smaller scales driven, in
1. Inversion moving to smaller scales driven, in part, by
part,
by planned satellite CO measurements
planned satellite CO2 measurements 2(OCO)
(OCO)
2.
There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
•
California electricity
NACP
Implementation Strategy (Denning, editor),
• Science
Interstates
2005
•
Diurnal, seasonal cycles
Fossil emissions are the dominant net source of CO2 in North
3. “local”
climate policy has emerged in many places:
America….
significant need for spatiotemporal information
State- or county-level inventories of fossil fuel emissions must
4. inadequate
for dynamic,
process
understanding
be downscaled
using emission
models
driven by statistics of
power and industrial plant usage, locations, pop , weather,
vehicular traffic, and other data…..
The goal is to provide daily or subdiurnal gridded emissions
estimates commensurate with the <10 km flux analyses
Why is this no longer adequate?
1.
Inversions moving to smaller scales driven, in part, by
planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
There isislikely
biasbias
lurking
(pop not(pop
best proxy)
2.2. There
likely
lurking
not best proxy)
•
California electricity
• • California
electricity
Interstates
• • Interstates
Diurnal, seasonal cycles
3.
climateseasonal
policy has emerged
• “local”
Diurnal,
cycles in many places:
4.
inadequate for dynamic, process understanding
significant need for spatiotemporal information
Why is this no longer adequate?
1.
Inversion moving to smaller scales driven, in part, by
planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
2.
There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
3.
3.
4.
•
California electricity
•
Interstates
•
Diurnal, seasonal cycles
“local” climate policy has emerged in many places:
significant
need forpolicy
spatiotemporal
information
“local”
climate
has emerged
in many
inadequate
for dynamic,need
process
understanding
places:
significant
for
spatiotemporal
information
New approaches?
Our Options:
 Downscale further?
 Better proxies?
 Scale with other pollutants?
 Energy modeling?
trains, planes & automobiles
Powerplants, factories
Home heat, gas stations
what sources burn when, where and why?????
The latest wave
There is now a growing community of
researchers tackling various aspects of high
resolution CO2 emissions
• Petron, Frost and colleagues: CEM and mobile
emissions
• Gurney, Fischer and colleagues: 10s km and hourly
• Andres, Gregg: state level and monthly
• Hirsch: 14C/Radon
• Pataki: urban
• Blasing, Broniak & Marland: state level/monthly
• Ackerman & Sundquist: point comparisons
1st HRFF meeting
Meeting at Purdue: Spring ‘07
 Prioritize
 Strategize
 Plan proposals, collaborative work
 This work can contribute to more than C science
Hestia
Build a global high resolution fossil/industrial
CO2 model-data fusion system that is fully
process-driven:
Google Earth Emissions
Thank you