Transcript IPCC Good Practice Guidance

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
IPCC Good Practice Guidance
Simon Eggleston
Technical Support Unit
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme
IPCC
National Systems
 Should be designed and operated to enable
Parties included in Annex 1 to consistently
estimate anthropogenic emission by all sources
and removals by all sinks of all GHGs, as covered
by the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and IPCC
good practice guidance, in accordance with
relevant decisions of the COP and/or COP/MOP
– FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add13, Decision 20.CP.7 Annex 1 Art 9
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
What are the IPCC Guidelines?
 Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (3
Volumes)
 Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty
Management in National greenhouse Gas
Inventories (2000)
 Good Practice Guidance for Land Use,
Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003)
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
What is Good Practice?
 Assists countries in producing inventories
that are accurate in the sense of being
neither over nor underestimates so far as
can be judged, and in which uncertainties
are reduced as far as possible
 Gives a way to manage uncertainties
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Good Practice…
 Supports the development of inventories that
are:
 Transparent
 Documented
 Consistent over time
 Complete
 Comparable
 Assessed for uncertainties
 Subject to quality control and assurance
 Efficient in the use of resources available to inventory
agencies
 In which uncertainties are gradually reduced as better
information becomes available
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
Key Source Analysis &
Methodological Choice
What is it and why is it
important?
Key Source Analysis
 Identifies sources with significant impact on
total emissions or trend
 The largest accounting for 95% of emissions are
“KEY SOURCES”
 Not include LULUCF
 Additional qualitative criteria as well
 Assessment of trend as well
 Can also include uncertainty information
 Suggested aggregation of sectors in guidance
 Expect this to identify 10-20 sources
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Key Source Analysis
 Outcomes
 Higher tier methodologies should be used for Key
Sectors
 Additional attention to QA/QC of key sources
 Resources are focused on sources with significant
impact on total emission estimate
 Best use of available resources
 Reduce uncertainties as much as practical
 Key Category analysis for LULUCF
 Similar to Key Sector including LULUCF
 Do as well as Key Source
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Methodological Choice
START
 Guided by Key source
analysis
 Decision trees in GPG
2000 and 2003
 Tier 1 are simple methods
with default values
 Tier 2 are similar but
with country specific
emission factors and
other data
 Tier 3 are more complex
approaches, possibly
models. However should
be compatible with lower
tiers.
Box 1: Tier 3
Country
Specific1 Data
Available
Yes
No
Fuel Statistics
by Locmotive
type?
Calculate
Emission using
detailled model
and factors
Box 2: Tier 2
Yes
Calculate
Emission using Eq
3.4.2
Yes
Estimate Fuel
Cousumption by
Locomotive type
No
Is this a Key
Source?
No
Calcultate
Emission using Eq
3.4.1
Box 1: Tier 1
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Data Needs
 Again GPG 2000 and 2003 give guidance
on
 activity data needed for different tiers
 QA/QC of data
 Checking
 Documentation requirements
 Aim should be data that is
representative, reliable and consistent
over time
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
Uncertainty Evaluations
Causes of uncertainty and how
to deal with it
Uncertainty Evaluation
 An essential part of an inventory
 Helps prioritise efforts to improve accuracy
 Guide decisions on methodological choice
 Most inventories and sources are reasonably reliable
 HOWEVER some sources may be order of magnitude
estimates
 Difficult or impossible to quantify and completely
characterise all inventory uncertainties
 Pragmatic approach - Use best available data and
expert judgement
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Probability Density
1.5
1
CDF
PDF
1.0
95% Probability
Range
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
0
0
1
2
Example Emission Rate
3
 Need uncertainties in all parameters used,
preferably need pdf as well (activity data AND
emission factors)
 Use 95% confidence interval
 These need to be documented, reviewed and used to
estimate total inventory uncertainty
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Cumulative Probability`
Uncertainties
Sources of Uncertainty Estimates
 Measurement errors
 Uncertainties in factors
 Use of Statistics
 Application of emission factors
 Representivity (or lack of it!)
 Expert Judgement – expert elicitation
 Models – applicability
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
Recalculations
What to do if consistent time
series methodology not possible
Recalculations
 Why?
 Available data changed
 Previous method not good practice
 A source category has become key
 Cannot transparently reflect mitigation
 Inventory capacity increased
 New methods become available
 New sources identified
 Errors corrected
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Recalculations
 Good practice to use same method and
consistent data for all years
 If not possible:
 Try new methods to get data
 Splicing
 Overlap (best)
 Surrogate
 Interpolation
 Trend Extrapolation
 Documentation!
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
QA/QC
What, Why and How?
Quality Control
 is a system of routine technical activities, to
measure and control the quality of the inventory
as it is being developed. The QC system is
designed to:
 Provide routine and consistent checks to ensure data
integrity, correctness, and completeness;
 Identify and address errors and omissions;
 Document and archive inventory material and record all
QC activities.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Assurance
 Quality Assurance (QA) activities include a
planned system of review procedures conducted
by personnel not directly involved in the
inventory compilation/ development process.
 Reviews, preferably by independent third
parties, should be performed upon a finalised
inventory following the implementation of QC
procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
QA/QC – Major Elements
 An inventory agency responsible for coordinating
QA/QC activities;
 A QA/QC plan;
 General QC procedures (Tier 1);
 Source category-specific QC procedures (Tier
2);
 QA review procedures;
 Reporting, documentation, and archiving
procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Control (Tier 1)
 Check assumptions and selection of data are documented
 Check for transcription errors and references
 Check units and conversion factors
 Check integrity of database files
 Check data consistency between sources
 Check movement of data between steps correct
 Check uncertainties are estimated correctly
 Undertake review of documentation
 Check recalculations
 Make completeness checks
 Compare estimates to previous ones
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Control (Tier 2)
 Focus on key sources
 Where used check if IPCC defaults appropriate
 QA/QC of country specific factors
 QA/QC of direct emissions
 Emission comparisons
 Order of magnitude checks
 Reference calculations
 QA/QC of national data from secondary sources
 QC of uncertainty estimates
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
Review and Documentation
Critical Steps
Review (not UNFCCC!)
 Expert peer review
 By relevant technical experts
 Not and Audit
 Can be supplemented by stakeholder review and
public review mechanisms
 Document review and inventory response
 Audits
 Check compliance with minimum QC specifications and
QC plan
 Check both Inventory QC and source specific QC
 Can occur at various stages in inventory development
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Documentation
 Assumptions and criteria for selection of activity data and emission
factors;
 Emission factors used, including references;
 Activity data or sufficient information to it to be traced to the
referenced source;
 Information on the uncertainty associated with activity data and emission
factors;
 Rationale for choice of methods;
 Methods used, including those used to estimate uncertainty;
 Changes in data inputs or methods from previous years;
 Individuals providing expert judgement for uncertainty estimates;
 Databases or software used and any information required for their use;
 Worksheets and interim calculations for source category estimates and
aggregated estimates and any recalculations of previous estimates;
 Final inventory report and any analysis of trends from previous years;
 QA/QC plans and outcomes of QA/QC procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Conclusions
IPCC Good Practice Guidance
Key Source analysis and Methodological
Choice
Uncertainty evaluations
Recalculations
Quality Control and Assurance
Review
Documentation
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC