Transcript Future Sea Level Rise Sources

Future Sea Level Rise Sources
A compilation of data/predicted sea level rise
Group 2, Mission 2010
Purpose
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This is so that the rest of you can see the
current data out there on sea level rise
predictions
Source #1-#3 *Can
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Climatic Research Unit (2000)
Author: Sarah Raper
In meters 1.8 to 2.1
Uncertainties:
 Future greenhouse gases & aerosol emissions
 Greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere
 Effect of changed concentrations on the radiative forcing of the
atmosphere
 Effect of this force on temperature and snowfall
 Rate of heat transfer to the ocean
 Regional climate change over the glaciers, ice caps, and icesheets
 Response of the glaciers, ice-caps, and ice-sheets to this climate
changes
Source #1
Source #2
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Supports 1st Source
Graph source is Wikipedia
In centimeters
1880-2000
Source #2
Source #3
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001)
In meters1.990-2.100
Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilised, sea level will
continue to rise for hundreds of years. After 500 years, sea level rise
from the thermal expansion of oceans may have reached only half
its eventual level, glacier retreat will continue and ice sheets will
continue to react to climate change.
Thermal expansion and land ice changes were calculated using a
simple climate model calibrated separately for each of seven
air/ocean global climate models (AOGCMs). Light shading shows
range of all model
Source #3
Source #4-#8 *YeSeul
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1. Coast to Coast 2002 National Conference
Main writer: Kevin Walsh, University of
Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences
2. Predicted sea level rise: .03 to .3 m by
2040; .09-.88m by 2010
3. Uncertainties: due to future greenhouse
gas concentrations. Used GIS
Source 4
Source #5
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EPA (Saving Louisiana’s Coastal Wetlands
Report)
.7 m rise by 2080
Incorporate Uncertainties: future emissions
on “greenhouse gases,” resulting impact on
climate, oceanic heat absorption and
response of glaciers to warming
http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BURPP/$File/louisiana.pdf
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Source #5
Source #6
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IPCC
.48 m
Source #6
Source #7
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Hart, David A., Burkett, Virginia A., Ziloski,
David A. Sea Level Rise and Subsidence:
Implications of Flooding in New Orleans,
Louisiana. United States Geological Survey.
.48m
Source #8
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USGS
Source #9-#13 *Erika
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CSCOR, Division of NOAA
http://www.cop.noaa.gov/stressors/climatec
hange/current/sea_level_rise.html
Uncertainty: Process for determining
projected sea level rise was not stated.
3. .040m – 1.029m by 2095
Source #10
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1. Australian Academy of Science
http://www.science.org.au/nova/082/082key.h
tm
Uncertainty: Greenhouse gas concentrations,
climate sensitivity, ocean heat exchange, and
response of Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets to years of warmer temperatures
3. .09m - .88m, with a “best guess” of .50m
Source #11
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1. National Center for Atmospheric Research
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/30
7/5716/1769
Uncertainty: Greenhouse gas concentrations
3. With a global temp rise of between 1.9°
and 2.6°C: .18m - .2m with a global temp rise
of between 2.2° and 3.5°C: .19m - .30m
Source #13
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1. Climate and sea level change(1993). In Warrick
R. A., Barrow E. M. and Wigley, T. M. L. (Eds.).
Great Britain: Cambridge University Press.
2. Actual temperature rise due to greenhouse gas
emissions
3. Business as usual (no change in rate of
greenhouse gas emissions): 1.09m
Scenario B (“reasonably realistic policies are
implemented to reduce future greenhouse gas
emissions”): .47m
Scenario C (“assumes somewhat stronger
policies”): .18m
Source #14-18 *Katie
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1. AGI (American Geological Institute)
2. Uncertain how much of the sea level rise
data pertaining to 130,000 years
ago was due to Antarctic ice sheet melting
3. 6 meters or more over the next 140 years
(due to melting of ice sheets)
Source #14
Source #15
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1. CRU (Climatic Research Unit)
2. Lists factors contributing to uncertainty:
1. the assumed future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions,
2. the resulting greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere,
which depends on the various sources and sinks of the various gases,
3. the effect of the changed concentrations on the radiative
forcing of the atmosphere,
4. the effect of this forcing on the climate, in particular on
temperature and snowfall,
5. the rate of heat penetration into the ocean, which will affect
the rate of thermal expansion of the ocean,
6. the regional climate change over the glaciers, ice caps and
ice-sheets (both temperature and snowfall),
7. the response of the glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets to this
climate change.
3. Based on looking at the chart, about 40 cm by 2100, using the "Reference
Best Guess" line 4.
Source #15
Source #16
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1. David Gates...some smart guy who wrote
some book about this stuff,
published by Sinauer Associates
2. Very uncertain, gives a broad general
range of estimates
3. 33 cm by 2050, anywhere from 1.5 - 2.5 m
by 2100
Source #17
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1. Iowa State University
2. There is no evidence for any acceleration
in the rate of sea level rise
for the 20th century
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3. Best estimate - .66 m by 2100
To see graphs:
http://www.iitap.iastate.edu/gcp/sealevel/seal
evel_lecture.html
Source #18
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1. Modelle & Daten - World Data Center for
Climate, Hamburg
2. Sea level rise varies depending on model
3. Various estimates based on different
models
Source #18
Source #18
Source #18
Source #18
Source #18
Other things to consider
Conclusion
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Reasonable data ranges anywhere from .021.5 m
Extreme low: .02m
Extreme high: 6 m
Average: .944 m (Calculated from taking
average of ranges/# of data sources without
the extreme high or low outliers)
Average values of SLR ranges
1.95
1.94
2.045
.485
.7
.48
.48
.5345
.5
.575
.47
.4
2
.66
6 extreme
.2 extreme