Transcript Wilderness, Water, and Climate Change

Wilderness, Water and
Climate Change
Randy Bramer
USDA Office of the General Counsel
Golden, CO
June 12, 2008
Issues



What are the potential
effects of climate
change on water?
How will these
changes affect
wilderness?
What can you do?
Water Is A Scarce Resource
Water Is A Scarce Resource In High
Demand
“Today, in some areas of
the West, existing water
supplies are, or will be,
inadequate to meet the
water demands of people,
cities, farms, and the
environment even under
normal water supply
conditions.”
U.S. Department of the Interior, “Water
2025: Preventing Crisis and Conflict in the
West” (2003)
While the U.S. is relatively water rich, the western part of the nation -where most National Forests are located -- is water poor.
Demand For Water Will Increase
Population of the West has increased 50% in the last 20 years
and is expected to increase another 300% by 2040.
What are the Potential Impacts of
Climate Change on Water?
Climate Change
Overall temperatures in the Rockies — and around the world —
are rising dramatically. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change reports that global mean surface temperature increased
by 0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) over the 20th
century. In the Western Hemisphere, the warming was greater
than in any other century for the last 1,000 years, and the 1990s
were the warmest decade of the entire millennium. The IPCC,
which issued its most recent assessment report in 2001, now
predicts that global mean temperatures will rise anywhere from
1.5 to 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit)
between 1990 and 2100 — a rate of warming very likely without
precedent in the last 10,000 years.
Climate Change and Water
“What do you really need to tell people
about climate change and water? It’s getting
hotter. We’ll get less snow. The snow will
melt earlier. That’s all you need to say.”
Climate Change - Effects on Southwest Water Resources,
Southwest Hydrology , January/ February 2007
Climate Change & Water - The Global Picture
Climate change means that
creeping deserts may
eventually drive 135 million
people off their land, the
United Nations estimates.
Most of them are in the
developing world. But
Southern Europe is
experiencing the problem
now, its climate drying to the
point that it is becoming more
like Africa’s, scientists say.

In Spain, Water Is a New Battleground,
NY Times, June 3, 2008
Water Is Likely to Get Scarcer Due to Climate
Change – North America

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
concludes that climate change will strain many of North
America’s water resources, increasing the competition
for water.




A warmer climate will affect the seasonable availability of
water by increasing evaporation and reducing snowpacks.
The Columbia River and other heavily used water systems of
western North America are expected to be particularly
vulnerable.
Groundwater-based systems in the Southwest are also likely
to be stressed by climate change.
Heavier precipitation will very likely increase waterborne
diseases and affect water quality, and higher variability of
precipitation will make water management more difficult.
Possible Water Resources Impacts in North America, Climate Change – Health and
Environmental Effects, EPA, December 20, 2007
Impacts of Climate Change on Water
in the West








More heat
Smaller snowpacks
Earlier snowmelt
More evaporation and dryness
More flood-control releases
Less groundwater
More legal restrictions
More droughts
Less Snow, Less Water: Climate Disruption in the West, September 2005, Stephen Saunders
and Maureen Maxwell, The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization.
West and Southwest





Likely reduction in snowpacks and seasonal shifts
in runoff patterns
Possible declines in groundwater recharge reduced water supplies
Increased water temperatures - further stress on
aquatic species
Increased frequency of intense precipitation events
- increased risk of flash floods
Possible summer salinity increase in San Francisco
Bay and Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001, 2007
Portage Glacier

Alaska
1914
Photos: NOAA Photo Collection and Gary Braasch – WorldViewOfGlobalWarming.org
2004


The entire Jackson-Blackfoot Glacier Basin in Glacier National
Park was covered in a single glacier as recently as 1920.
Scientists predict both will be gone by 2030.
“Climate change has been linked to declining snowpacks,
retreating glaciers, and changing patterns of precipitation
and runoff. The evidence shows that we are entering a
period of water scarcity not seen in our history. The
national forests were created in part for ‘securing favorable
conditions of water flows,’ the importance of which has
grown as populations have grown. We can make a
difference by managing national forests and grasslands to
restore ecological processes and functions that support
clean and healthy streams, lakes, and aquifers.”
—Forest Service Chief Gail Kimbell
The New War?
The battles of yesterday were fought over
land…. Those of the present center
on oil. But those of the future — a future
made hotter and drier by climate change in much
of the world — seem likely to focus on water….
In Spain, Water Is a New Battleground, NY
Times, June 3, 2008
How Might Climate Change Affect
Wilderness?




The change that is having the biggest and most
obvious biological impact is the early arrival of
spring. This could cause entire ecosystems to
become unbalanced if species respond to the
warmer weather at different rates.
Worldwide, effects were also apparent in the
ecosystems of oceans, lakes and rivers. Changes to
the migration patterns of fish have led to them
invading waters that were once too cold.
Other important impacts include an increase in the
extent of forest fires each year in Canada.
Nature 453, 353-357 (15 May 2008 )
“By
mid-century, the main pulse of the spring snowmelt
runoff in the Upper Colorado River Basin is expected to
come approximately two weeks earlier than at the present.
By the end of the century, snowmelt runoff is expected four
weeks earlier in virtually all of the six southwestern states.
Run off is also expected to decrease, in part due to higher
evaporation rates that come with higher temperatures.”
Climate Change - Effects on Southwest Water Resources, Southwest Hydrology , January/ February
2007
Impacts on High Alpine Vegetation


Climate change could make major changes in the
character of our mountains and in the abundance
and variety of life they support.
The Rocky Mountains' famous wildflowers,
meadows, and expanses of mountain-top tundra
could all be greatly reduced, or perhaps almost
vanish, as a result of climate change. So could
many alpine species of animals and plants.
“We're projecting, from
these experiments, there's
going to be a tremendous
decline in the abundance
of the flowers. You think of
meadows strewn with
gorgeous flowers. Many of
those flowering plants are
going to be decimated.'‘
Dr. John Harte, Professor of
Environmental Science
“Some ecosystems that are
already constrained by
climate, such as alpine
meadows in the Rocky
Mountains, are likely to face
extreme stress, and disappear
entirely in some places.”
Climate Change Impacts on the United
States (2000)
Impacts on Trees

Under most climatechange scenarios, forest
types are predicted to
shift uphill, implying
that the forest that
regenerates after a
modern-day beetle kill
may look very different
from the one that came
before it.
For a forest, climate change means two things -- bigger fires,
and lots more of them.
“High-elevation forests will have a tough time coming back if
they burn,” Cronn says. “The conditions necessary for
seedling survival just aren’t there.” That means unless
something unforeseen happens, the entire high-country
ecosystem in the West is going to undergo radical change,
including the dislocation of thousands of wildlife species for
whom these forests are home. If and when the island forests of
Conifers are lost to fire, they’re not going to reseed.
Grasslands will quickly move up in elevation and take over.
Devanter, P., High Country News, September 24, 2007
The White Bark Pine



Whitebark pines form the
roofbeam of our mountain
landscapes.
In the past it was too cold
for mountain pine beetles
to survive at higher
elevations.
When temperatures are
increased by as little as
two degree Celsius the
beetles have been found to
race thorugh a one year life
cycle at higher elevations.
Impacts on Animals – The
Amphibians




Researchers looked at amphibian survey records from
about 50 different sites in Central and South America,
charting the timing of extinction for about 70 different
species of harlequin frogs. They found that these
disappearances occurred in lockstep with warming global
temperatures.
"Disease is the bullet killing frogs, but climate change is
pulling the trigger," ecologist Alan Pounds
Biologists have long argued that amphibians, with their
delicate, porous skins, are the proverbial canaries in the
coal mine, the species most sensitive to global
environmental change.
Climate Change is Pulling the Trigger, High Country News, January 23,
2006
Impacts on Animals

Pika, a coolweather-loving
mountain
rodent, is
vanishing from
the Sierra
Nevada
Natural Preservation and Global
Warming

“In the age of global warming, public-land
managers face a stark choice: They can let
national parks and other wildlands lose their
most cherished wildlife. Or they can become
gardeners and zookeepers.”

Unnatural Preservation, High Country News, February 4,
2008
The Choices?


Do we rush to rescue climate-imperiled
species before it's too late? or
Do we let nature take its course, quietly
watching the disappearance of species that
we have spent decades restoring and
protecting?
Unnatural Preservation, High Country News, February 4, 2008
“So professional preservationists, and the environmental
movement as a whole, are left with unnatural choices: They
can intervene aggressively to maintain habitat threatened by
planetary warming installing sprinkler systems around
California's giant sequoias, to name one suggestion floated by
scientists. In the process they would become something akin
to farmers and pet fanciers. They can intervene aggressively to
provide huge migration paths northward for heat-threatened
plants and animals. Because this would require them to help
dramatically change existing ecosystems, it would turn the
current conservation ethic on its head. Or they can decide to
continue to use the traditional hands-off approach - and
thereby allow millennia old ecosystems to die off and be
replaced in ways that would never have happened naturally, if
not for global warming.”
Unnatural Preservation, High Country News, February 4, 2008
How Will Climate Change Affect Water Uses
In Wilderness?
Impacts


Climate change is likely to decrease water
quantity due to decreased snowpacks and
seasonal shifts in runoff patterns and possible
declines in groundwater recharge resulting in
reduced water supplies.
Climate change will also impact water quality
through increased water temperatures and
increased rainfall.
Impacts on Water Allocation



Competition for the use of limited and declining
water resources in the West continues to
increase. This competition will likely increase as
climate change continues.
With this increased competition and a
corresponding increase in administrative
enforcement by States, there is likely to be more
pressure for water removal from federal lands
on or near wilderness
Decreased water availability and changes in the
seasonal availability of water will directly affect
how these water rights are defined and
subsequently administered.
Impacts on Uses of Water in or Near
Wilderness
Ski Areas

There will likely be an
increase in requests for
snowmaking on NFS
land. Water for these uses
may come from NFS land
adjacent to wildernesses.
Recreation
Potential increases in
camping, hiking, and fishing
would draw different outdoor
recreation enthusiasts to the
area and those activities
might be available for a
longer period of time during
the year.
US National Assessment of the Potential Consequences
of Climate Variability and Change Educational Resources
Regional Paper: Rocky Mountain /Great Basin Region,
US Climate Change Science Program / US Global
Change Research Program
Impacts on Grazing
Changes in
availability of water
and timing of runoff
caused by climate
change may change
the locations of
allotments as well as
the season of use.
Impacts on Water Storage Facilities
“The snow pack is our
major reservoir, and we
don’t have artificial
reservoirs sufficient in
size to manage it in a
way that nature
manages it for us”
Kathleen Miller, National Center for
Atmospheric Research and author of
the book “Climate Change and Water
Resources: A primer for Municipal
Water Providers”.
Impacts on Water Storage Facilities
Overall, temperature increases are expected
to decrease the ability of our mountain
“water towers” to reliably deliver water in
the quantities we have come to expect and
when we need it most.
Climate Change - Effects on Southwest Water Resources,
Southwest Hydrology , January/ February 2007
Water Storage
Likely to be
increased pressure
to store and divert
more water in
existing facilities.
Case Study: Emerald Lake
Colorado Wilderness
Emerald Lake



Second largest
natural lake in
Colorado.
Over 10, 000 feet in
elevation.
Completely within
the Weminuche
Wilderness.
Emerald Lake


An irrigation
district is
proposing to build
a dam and reservoir
on Emerald Lake.
Must show:



authorization to
occupy NFS land
right of access
water right
The Wilderness Act and Reservoirs
(4) Water resources, reservoirs, and other facilities;
grazing. Within wilderness areas in the national
forests designated by this chapter, (1) the President
may, within a specific area and in accordance with such
regulations as he may deem desirable, authorize
prospecting for water resources, the establishment
and maintenance of reservoirs, water-conservation
works, power projects, transmission lines, and other
facilities needed in the public interest, including the
road construction and maintenance essential to
development and use thereof, upon his determination
that such use or uses in the specific area will better
serve the interests of the United States and the people
thereof than will its denial... 16 USC 1133 (4)(a).
Emerald Lake



Small dam constructed in
1895-96 & maintained until
1930’s.
Dam fell into disrepair &
abandoned .
If authorization were
found to be valid under the
1891 Act, FS may have to
provide access as “the
Secretary deems adequate
to secure to the owner the
reasonable use and
enjoyment” of its right of
way.
What are the Scientists Doing in
Wilderness Areas?
What are the Scientists Doing in
Wilderness Areas?





Looking at long term changes in wilderness lake
chemistry
Monitor ozone at high elevation in Colorado near
wildernesses.
Examining spatial variability in wilderness lake
chemistry
Water chemistry of high elevation Colorado
wilderness lakes
Robert C. Musselman* and William L. Slauson, Biogeochemistry 71: 387–414, 2004.
What Can Wilderness Staff Do?
The Need for Field Data

Although there are reams of conclusive science on
the “whether” of global warming—it is definitely
occurring—there’s very little precise information
on when, and where, and what will happen
next….Such science is scarce…And though there’s
been vast observational research on the effects of
global warming, there’s not much experimentderived knowledge about what a warmer planet
will do to particular habitats

Unnatural Preservation, Missoula Independent , May 15 2008
Importance of Field Data


Field observations are most valuable from
wilderness rangers that have made these
observations for many years, or perhaps they
can talk to old-timers on the trails who might
have observations on these points.
Take notes and photographs.
Monitor Flows


Some mountain
streams stop flowing
mid-late summer when
snowmelt ceases, and
how early in the season
this happens is
important.
Write down and
photograph any
observations on
changes in baseline
flow (lowest flow of the
year, usually Sept).
Monitor Snowmelt


Researchers believe
that snowmelt is
beginning sooner
and happening
more quickly.
Field observations
on when snowmelt
begins and ends
would be useful.
Monitor Snowfields


Researchers believe that
some snowfields that
have not been melted
out completely for
decades may now be
melting.
Look for minimum size
of permanent
snowfields and keep
records including
photographs from year
to year.
Monitor Lake Ice-Out and
Freeze Up


Identification and
documentation of the
date of ice-out and
freeze up of
wilderness lakes is
also important.
A 15-20 year record of
these dates is
extremely valuable.
Help the Researchers in the Field


Collect water samples
of selected wilderness
lakes for long term
monitoring of water
chemistry of these
lakes.
Monitor ozone at high
elevation in Colorado
near wildernesses.
Conclusion


Climate change is ongoing and is likely to affect
water in wilderness.
Given the likelihood of decreased water availability
as time progresses wilderness staff needs to:
 Monitor changes in ecological conditions
through field visits.
 Assist in researchers conducting studies
concerning effects of climate change.