Transcript Overseas Development Institute

Towards a framework for
assessing climate change
interventions through impact
evaluation
Martin Prowse, ODI
Key messages
1. The applicability of impact evaluation to assessing
climate change interventions has not been widely
considered
2. However, some mitigation and adaptation measures
show potential in the short term
•
•
Mitigation: Biofuel production, forest protection initiatives,
and environmental labelling
Adaptation: Community-based adaptation
3. Other measures show potential in the longer term
(for example, projects within NAPAs)
Overview I
1. To what extent has impact evaluation been applied
to climate change interventions?
2. How can we assess if IE could be applied to climate
change interventions?
3. What are the generic shortcomings of impact
evaluation?
Overview II
4. Four mitigation measures (green growth
strategies, environmental labelling initiatives,
biofuel production, forest protection)
5. Four adaptation measures (communitybased adaptation, disaster risk screening,
GEF LDCF, GEF SCCF)
6. Conclusions
1. To what extent has impact
evaluation been applied to climate
change interventions?
‘In the context of impact evaluations of
GEF projects, it is clear that the rigorous
impact evaluation model is neither
appropriate nor affordable’
Mixed experience from using IE-type
approaches
GEF’s alternative: Bamberger’s
‘Shoestring Methodologies’ and a
‘Theory of Change’ approach
2. How can we assess if IE
could be applied to climate
change interventions?
• Costly and time consuming
• Suited to small-scale
interventions, not large-scale
policy reforms
• Direct budget supports limits
scope for ex ante IE
• How does IE intersect with
country ownership?
3. What are the shortcomings
of impact evaluation?
• Institutional inertia
• Moral and ethical
concerns
• Technical capacity
and institutional
compliance
4. Four mitigation measures
• Green growth strategies (carbon credits from offset
projects in non-Annex I countries)
• Environmental labelling initiatives (which illustrate the
‘carbon footprint’ of products)
• Biofuel production (of second-generation biofuels such
as jatropha)
• Forest protection schemes (such as Reduced Emissions
from Deforestation and Degradation – REDD)
4. Four mitigation measures
5. Four adaptation measures
• Community-level adaptation (an autonomous, bottom- up approach)
• ORCHID (disaster risk screening tool)
• GEF Least Developed Country Fund (provides adaptation finance to the poorest
countries, especially through National Adaptation Plans)
• GEF’s Special Climate Change Fund (again has a primary focus on adaptation)
5. Four adaptation measures
4. Community-based adaptation
• Autonomous bottom-up
approach to adaptation
• Builds on local technical
knowledge and coping strategies
• Incongruence with IE? (i.e.
participatory standpoint vs. ultrapositivism)
• But ‘with and without’
comparisons of CBA are possible
ORCHID
• Mainstreaming climate risk management
through appraising projects and programmes
• Probably not desirable to randomise
organisations or programmes
• Might be possible to use quasi-experimental
methods
6. GEF’s Least Developed
Country Fund
• Provides finance to the poorest
countries, mainly for adaptation
• Supported completion of NAPAs
• Common priorities: water
resources; food security;
agriculture; infrastructure.
• NAPAs: variable quality, with
focus on conventional
development projects
• IE can assess such projects
7. GEF’s Special Climate Change
Fund
• SCCF has a primary focus
on adaptation
• Again, a focus on water
resources, agriculture,
infrastructure
• Plans a reminiscent of
conventional development
projects
Conclusions
1. The applicability of impact evaluation to assessing
climate change interventions has not been widely
considered
2. However, some mitigation and adaptation measures
show potential in the short term
•
•
Mitigation: Biofuel production, forest protection initiatives,
and environmental labelling
Adaptation: Community-based adaptation
3. Other measures show potential in the longer term
(for example, projects within NAPAs)