Transcript noah 2

Climate Change and Operation
Noah
Ruth Jarman
CEL Trustee & Operation Noah Management Group Member
21 July 2015
Climate change is happening already
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150,000 people have died since 1970 because of
climate change1
For wildlife, because of inability of ecosystems to
adapt, green house gas levels are already too high1.
Seabirds on NE coast of Britain suffered large scale
breeding failure due to lack of sandeels - most likely
due to climate change2
Antarctica is melting faster than expected3 - Giant
Awakened?
21 July 2015
The Greenhouse Effect allows life on Earth
700
CO2 in 2100
(with business as usual)
600
Double pre-industrial CO2
500
Lowest possible CO2
stabilisation level by 2100
400
CO2 now
300
200
160
120
80
40
Time (thousands of years)
Now
100
CO2 concentration (ppm)
The last 160,000 years
(from ice cores) and the
next 100 years
700
CO2 in 2100
(with business as usual)
600
Double pre-industrial CO2
500
Lowest possible CO2
stabilisation level by 2100
400
CO2 now
300
10
Temperature
difference
200
0
from now °C
–10
160
120
80
40
Now
Time (thousands of years)
100
CO2 concentration (ppm)
The last 160,000 years
(from ice cores) and the
next 100 years
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The Lord loves righteousness and justice; Ps 33:5
Christian Aid
21 July 2015
He makes grass
grow for the
cattle,
and plants for
man to cultivate
–
bringing forth
food from the
earth:
•2.5o warming in
Ps 104:14
average Earth
temp. puts 45-55
million extra
people at risk of
hunger by 2080
•3o - 65-75 million
(or 3.3-5.5 billion),
• 3-4o – 80-125
million3
Christian Aid
How many are your works, O Lord!
In wisdom you made them all;
The earth is full of your creatures.
Ps 104:24
•15-37% of species committed to extinction by 2050 (mid-range warming)5
21 July 2015
WWF
Polar ice sheet
thickness down
by 40% in 20
years.6 Polar
bear birth rate
already
declining.
These all look to you
to give them their food
at the proper time.
Ps 104:27
WWF
The trees of the Lord are well watered,
The cedars of Lebanon that he planted.
There the birds make their nests;
The stork has its home in the pine trees.
Ps 104:16-17
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WWF
A 2°C increase
in water
temperature
will kill a coral
reef
There is the sea, vast and spacious,
teeming with creatures beyond number –
Living things both large and small.
Ps 104:25
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Jim Cox
And it could get a lot worse
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6
IPCC 2001 predicted the likely range of temperature rise of between
1.4 to 5.8 degrees by 2100
Oxford study found 11 degree rise a possible outcome
1.5 degree global warming may trigger melting of Greenland icecap
– 7 m sea level rise
o
Greater than 3 rise in temperature allows a serious risk of large
scale, irreversible disruptions e.g.
– Amazon forest
die-off before 2100 – not included in IPCC
o7
models - + 3
– 2 in 3 chance of Thermo-Haline Circulation collapse in next 200
years under BAU
– Destabilisation of Antarctic ice sheets
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C&C Utopian?
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“C&C appears utopian only if we refuse to contemplate the alternatives
honestly” Dr. Rowan Williams, The Archbishop of Canterbury
“Achieving the goal of the climate treaty, inevitably requires contraction
and convergence” UN Climate Change Convention Secretariat
“A fair distribution, establishing the concept of per capita emission
rights for all countries, as proposed in the Contraction and
Convergence scheme” David Hallman, World Council of Churches
The commission might have added that contraction and convergence
is comprehensive, scientifically based and equitable, unlike the Kyoto
Protocol, and that contraction and convergence meets every single
objection raised by the United States to Kyoto” Lord Bishop of
Hereford
The Government should press for a future global climate agreement
based on the “Contraction and Convergence” approach, combined
with international trading in emission permits. These offer the best
long-term prospect of securing equity, economy and international
consensus.” Sir Tom Blundell, Chairman, RCEP
21 July 2015
Who cares about what happens to our planet in 50 years ?
Not me, four years is
my horizon. Market
forces will take care
of it ....
Not me, that’s the
governments problem,
anyway, Big Brother’s
on in a minute…
Not me, half my current
shareholders will be dead
by then, and I only sell
what people want to
buy…
What can we do?
Operation Noah
1. Sign and post the Climate Covenant
2. Take action yourself
3. Spread the word
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1. The Climate Covenant
“ World leaders must act to avert dangerous
climate change, and give everyone fair
access to energy in a sustainable world
economy.
We ask the UK government to lead
negotiations.
We will take action personally to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions”
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2. Take action yourself – clean energy
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Make the switch to green electricity
One phone call
Get estimate of costs from uswitch.com
If you go for Good Energy (formerly unit[e]) or Green Energy,
Operation Noah will get £7 commission to help us finance the
campaign
Do try and switch to one of the 4 greenest suppliers
(www.foe.co.uk/campaigns/climate/press_for_change/choose_
green_energy) – Good Energy, Green Energy, Ecotricity or Eco
Energy
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2. Take action yourself – other
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Drive as little as possible, buy a smaller car
Don’t fly
Buy local produce
Fit energy-saving light bulbs; turn off lights.
Set hot water cylinder thermostat at 40-50 degrees C; insulate.
Switch off TVs, computers etc. rather than leaving them on stand-by.
Choose the right size pan for cooking food, keep lids on; don’t
overfill kettles; use full loads in washing machines.
Close curtains at dusk to stop heat escaping.
Cut down on draughts but keep enough ventilation.
Wear an extra jumper and you will want to turn the heating down!
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2. Take action yourself – churches
NEW!!! The Cool Church Toolkit
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Count the carbon
Cut the carbon
Keep an eye
www.christian-ecology.org.uk/noah
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.. But what
can one
person do
?
.. But what
can one
person do
?
.. But what
can one
person do
?
.. But what
can one
person do
?
21 July 2015
.. But what
can one
person do
?
.. But what
can one
person do
?
.. But what
can one
person do
?
.. But what
can one
person do
?
3. Spread the word – Operation Noah
has everything you need
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Talks and power point presentation
Drama sketch
Sample services
Plan and report to church council on
switching to green electricity
Leaflets – please take some today
www.christian-ecology.org.uk/noah
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References
1
Table 2a. 'Impacts on human systems due to Temperature rise, precipitation
change and increases in extreme events', page 1;
www.stabilisation2005.com/impacts/impacts_human.pdf
2 Ecosystem Loss and its Implications for Greenhouse Gas Concentration
Stabilisation, John Lanchbery
3 Antarctic ice sheets and sea level rise, Chris Rapley, British Antartic Survey.
4 Relationship between increases in global mean temperature and impacts on
ecosystems, food production, water and socio-economic systems, Bill Hare,
5 Responses of Species to Changes in Climate Determine Climate Protection
Targets (Rick Leemans)
6 Steering committee report
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Feb 1-3, 2005 Met Office, Exeter
7
Hadley Centre Nov 2000 update
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“I have set my rainbow in the clouds, and it
will be the sign of the covenant between
me and the earth.”
Gen 9:13
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Carbon Quiz
How do you get to work? Where do you holiday?
Walk
0
The UK
0
Bus/train
5
Europe
5
Car
10
Outside Europe
20
Is your residence….
Is your electricity….
Detached, hot? 20
Renewable?
0
Small warm?
10
Standard, & conserve energy? 7
Cool flat?
0
Standard, do not conserve?
10
Do you eat…
Fresh, locally grown produce?
0
A mix of local and convenience foods? 2
Mostly convenience foods?
4
Do you produce….
Minimal waste and recycle?
0
An average quantity of waste and recycle?
3
Above average amount and do not recycle?
10
Carbon Quiz
<5
Well done! If everyone in the world lived like you we
would be living within the means of our planet.
5-25 If everyone lived like you we would need 2 planets to
sustain the amount of carbon dioxide that we
produce.
25-45 …………………………………………
3 planets
45-65 …………………………………………
4 planets
>65 …………………………………………
5 planets
Based on carbon calculator from Best Foot Forward
21 July 2015