Transcript Climate change, Food price increases, and Global recession

Sustainable Food Security Under
Land and Water Stresses
Nnyaladzi Batisani
Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation
Gaborone, Botswana
African European Residential School
4 August 2014
University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana
Africa's food security challenges unmanageable
without addressing climate change, land tenure
(Braimoh Ademola, 2012)
• Africa's need to increase productivity for about 750 million people in
Africa by 2050
• the lack of resilience in the agricultural sector to cope with climate
change
• impact is likely to decrease crop yields to as low as 20-30 per cent.
• Africa deal with green house gas emissions
Climate Smart Agriculture
Resource depletion and land degradation
• Land tenure a big factor decimating food production in Africa
– how farmers can be assured that if they plant crops this year, the next year they
will not be driven away from the same plot of land
• Governments, through partnerships with institutions such as the
World Bank, ensure that there is access to farming land both for
men and women
• Agriculture is a risky business
governments and partners have failed to address the risks involved
Local Dimensions of Global Change
• All global change is local
• Causes occur in local places
• Effects occur in local places
• Responses implemented in local places
Location of weather stations used in the analysis
Drought dynamics and severity
a
b
3-month SPI
6 month SPI
c
9 month SPI
d
12 month SPI
Spatial distribution of severe drought in Botswana
For (a) 3-month SPI, (b) 6-month SPI, (c) 9-month SPI, and (d) 12-month SPI
Percentage drought occurrence at
corresponding drought categories and
drought duration
Climate variability and change
Rainfall spatial stability
Stations
Annual Rainfall Trend
p-value
Francistown
-2.36
0.02a
Gantsi
-2.24
0.03a
Kasane
0.21
0.83
Lobatse
-2.16
0.03a
Maun
-1.17
0.02a
Molepolole
-1.51
0.01a
Serowe
-0.10
0.09b
Tsabong
-1.72
0.09b
a Significant at p<0.05
b Significant at p<0.10
Trends of monthly rainfall
Station
Jan
Francistown NE
-0.36
Gantsi W
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July Aug
-0.65
0.70
-1.35
-1.27
1.41b
-0.17
-1.52
0.13
-0.18
-0.63
-0.69
1.59
Kasane N
-0.58
-0.13
-1.04
0.79
-0.69
Lobatse SE
-2.45b
-0.02
-1.25
-0.80
Maun N
-0.71
-0.91
-1.17
Molepolole
SE
-2.27a
-0.06
Serowe E
-0.47a
Tsabong S
-0.94
a Significant at p<0.05
b Significant at p<0.10
Feb
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-2.49b
-1.92a
-1.96b
0.37
0.52
0.38
-1.13
-1.69
-1.80
0.37
-1.23
1.14
0.00
1.35
1.03
-1.1
0.42
-1.07
-0.10
-0.68
-1.81
-2.66b
-2.01a
-0.28
-1.01
1.33
-0.02
-0.97
0.28
0.38
-0.85
-1.44
-1.54
-0.06
0.91
-1.38
-0.15
0.69
0.57
-0.81
-2.48b
-2.52b
-0.37
0.59
0.97
-0.73
-0.81
-0.48
0.31
2.04
-0.60a
-1.21
-2.07a
-0.41
0.66
0.11
-1.90a
-1.01
-0.15
0.90
-0.77
-1.47
-2.19a
-1.18
-0.13
-0.84
0.91
decline
sign. decline
increase
sign. increase
Stations
Mean
number
of rainy
days/year
Trend
rainy
days/year
Sign. level
trends
p-value
Rainy
days/year
vs Annual
Rainfall R2
Gantsi
33
-1.04
0.03*
0.10
Maun
37
-1.43
0.15
0.85
Mochudi
24
-1.04
0.30
0.26
Serowe
22
-1.04
0.30
0.41
Shakawe
35
-1.14
0.26
0.69
Tsabong
24
-2.18
0.02*
0.06
* Significant at p<0.05
Linking rainfall variability
and dry land crop yield
(a) Rainfall stability with
yield stability of (b) maize and (c) sorghum
(a)
(b)
(c)
Holistic Approach to Climate Change
Adaptation
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
food inflation
10.0
5.0
The global food price in 2007–08
(von Braun, 2008)
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0.0
Food price inflation dynamics in Botswana
(CSO, 2009)
quaterly balance of payments
(million BW P)
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-2000
quaters
Botswana quarterly real GDP growth Botswana quarterly balance of payments
( CSO, 2009)
(BoB, 2009)
Adaptation toolbox
Development of Decision
support systems
Determination of on set of the planting season
Yield gap analysis
Real-time rainfall measurement
Cell phone towers
Achieving food security in the midst of climate
change and socioeconomic perturbations
• Mainstreaming climate change in the broader economic agenda,
rather than taking a narrow agricultural perspective
• Climate smart agriculture:
– crop and livestock insurance,
– social safety nets,
– research on and dissemination of heat, and drought-resistant crops,
– conservation of traditional plant varieties with those characteristics.
– new irrigation schemes combined with and better market access for high-value
products
– design of new irrigation schemes and the retrofitting of existing ones to cater
for the expected increase in rainfall variability and stream flows
– better climate information such as provision of long-term weather forecast
THANK YOU