Transcript Document

Assessing confidence and
communicating meaning:
The experience of the LWEC Climate
Change Impact Report Cards
Mike Morecroft
LWEC Climate Change Impacts
Report Card for Biodiversity and
ecosystems
•
•
•
•
Accessible high level summary
Underpinned by peer reviewed reviews
Consensus of research community
One of a series of climate change impacts
report cards covering different sectors
http://www.lwec.org.uk/resources/reportcards/biodiversity
LWEC Climate Change Impacts
Report Card for Biodiversity
paper
Review
Report
card
paper
Review
paper
Review
Peer review:
Independent group
Peer review:
Working group
paper
report
report
book
Peer review:
Review authors
Evidence on climate change
impacts
•
•
•
•
Monitoring and survey
Experiment
Theory
Modelling
indicators
agreement
Assessing confidence
H
H
M
M
L
L
L
M
Amount of
evidence
H
Overall
confidence
Over the last century the directions of change in
range margins of many animal species are
consistent with recorded increases in
temperature. H
Lessons for indicators
•
•
•
•
Consensus of scientific community
Peer review
Traceability to primary research / monitoring
Assessment of confidence / uncertainty
•
•
Indicators are part of a larger evidence base
Qualitative assessments can be valuable as
well as quantitative
Text can be powerful
Communication matters
•
•
There is strong evidence that climate
change is already affecting UK biodiversity.
Impacts are expected to increase as the
magnitude of climate change increases.