Transcript Document

Adviser & Head
Climate Change Programme,
Department of Science & Technology
Email: [email protected]
Presentation Outline
Observed Trend in the frequency of
extreme weather events over the
globe and India
Extreme Weather Events and their
linkage with CC- Are freak events
linked to CC?
How can we reduce the impact of
Extreme Weather Events in the
Changing Climate?
Summary
Observed Global Trend in the
frequency of Extreme Weather
events and Sea Level Rise
Annual Frequency of
Natural Disasters
1950 – 2005
16
Flood
Storm
Earthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption
14
Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Recent Increasing Trends in
Frequency of Natural Hazards
350
350
250
250
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
0
1996
50
1994
100
1992
350
1990
150
1988
200
1986
250
1984
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
Drought
Extreme Heat Events
300
1982
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
1980
200
Floods
300
Windstorms
300
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
Changes in Sea Level since 1850 and Projection
(IPCC 4thAR, WGI, Paris, 5.2.2007)
Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of
1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr
Bangladesh is projected to lose about 16% of its land area
with a sea level rise of 1.5 m
Sea-Water Inundation
Example: Maldives
Area: 115 square miles
Population: 143,000
Highest point: 20 ft above sea level
Climate Change induced Sea
Level Rise may inundate
some of the islands of
Maldives
Observed Trend in the
frequency of Extreme Weather
events and Sea Level Rise over
India
Changes in the Frequency of
Extreme Rainfall
Low & Moderate events
Heavy events (>10cm)
V. Heavy events (>15cm)
Goswami et al., Science, Dec., 2006
Number of Flash Flood Events in
India (1980-2006)
Increasing
Trend in
Flash Flood
Events
during past
25 years
Total Number of Flood Events
in India (1980-2006)
Decreasing
Trend in
Total Flood
Events
during past
25 years
Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of
Cyclonic Storms over India during 1891-2006
12
y = -0.0183x + 6.3291
R2 = 0.1031
10
6
4
2
YE A R S
2006
2001
1996
1991
1986
1981
1976
1971
1966
1961
1956
1951
1946
1941
1936
1931
1926
1921
1916
1911
1906
1901
1896
0
1891
FREQUENCY
8
Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of Cyclonic
Disturbances over India during past 120 years (18912009)
Increasing Frequency of Total Number of
Low
Pressure Areas over India during past 123 years (18882009)
Sea Level RiseObservations
•
•
Sea-levels
increase by ~
1.3 mm/year
Recent ~3.1
mm/year
Climate Projections
Av. Surface temperature: increase by 2 - 4°C during 2050s
Monsoon Rainfall: Marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)
: Large changes during non-monsoon months
No. of rainy days: set to decrease by more than 15 days
Intensity of rains : to increase by 1-4 mm/day
Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is
projected
Extreme Events and their
linkage with Climate Change
Climate Change and
Extreme Weather Events
• Climate Change could impact frequency and
severity of events on long term and not year
to year
• No clear long term trend is observed in this
regard but a number of regions have reported
increase in variability.
• Events which are directly connected to
temperature change have shown positive
trends
Extreme Events which are directly
and indirectly linked to CC
• Those extreme events which are directly
linked to the warming are likely to
increase- Heat waves, droughts, extreme
rainfall (floods), etc.
• Those indirectly related are still doubtful
to have been impacted by climate changeIncrease in number/intensity of cyclones,
tornadoes, local severe storms, etc.
Are Freak Extreme Events
linked to Climate Change?
Cyclone Phailin: Observed Track
Microwave Imagery of Cyclone Phailin
EYE
EYE WALL
Cloud Bands
Doppler Radar Imagery of Cyclone Phailin
Main Causes of Uttarakhand
(Kedarnath) Deluge June 2013
An unconfirmed cloudburst event,
Glacier and moraine outbursts,
Steep slopes associated with the terrain,
Sudden gushing of water and debris into the
valley regions,
Flooding of rivers on account of incessant rain,
Exceeding of carrying capacity of rivers,
Major landslides,
Panic reactions of people
High Resolution Satellite Imagery of Uttarakhand Disaster
Flow from Glacier
(2) overtopping of the moraine
barrier- resulting in release of
impounded water
(1) Blocked basin
created by Moraine-a
pool of water was built up
(4) Main Channel
of Flow
(5) Kedarnath Town struck
by flow from 2 channels
Kedarnath
(3) Trifurcation of Flow
Uttarakhand Disaster vs
Cyclone Phailin
Uttarakhand Phailin
Wx System
Size
Prediction
Accuracy
Prediction time
Lead time for
Disaster
management
Cloud Burst
50 km
Poor
Cyclone
1000km
Very Good
6-12 hrs in
advance
3-4 hrs
5-6 days in
advance
3-4 days
Key Factors for High Impact of
Extreme Events in Developing
Countries
Development
/Globalization
Population
Increase
Increase in
Extreme Events
Viewing world through population density
India is one among few countries having very high density of population
Impact of Climate Change on
Developing Countries like India
• Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought
prone and a large share of the economy is in climate
sensitive sectors
• Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of
financial, institutional and technological capacity and
access to knowledge
• Climate
change
is
likely
to
impact
disproportionately upon the poorest countries and
the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating
inequities in health status and access to adequate
food, clean water and other resources.
How can we reduce the impact of
Extreme Weather Events in the
Changing Climate?
VULNERABILITY MAPPING of areas with
present and projected scenarios of climate
change in relation to extreme events
DEVELOPING CAPACITIES TO ADAPT climate
change in highly vulnerable regions
INCREASING CAPABILITY TO DETECT AND
PREDICT extreme events with greater accuracy
and longer lead time.
Deploying a MULTI-HAZARD INTEGRATED
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
PUBLIC AWARENESS about possible impact of
climate change and ways & means to cope up
Multi-layered Data Base Management
and Modeling
Data level
Country
State
Model to
analyze and
predict impact
of events to
desired level
District
Taluk
Block
Village
Multiple
Scenario
based on
data level &
event
Integrated Disaster Management Concept
Disaster
Advanced & Dense
Observational Network
Observation &
Monitoring
Prediction
Prediction
models
High resolution
Data assimilation
High speed computer
Impact Assessment
Decision Support System
Dissemination of
Early Warnings
Feedback
Location specific
administrative
Actions
State Gov
Village level data bank
Decision type
Sociological
Geo-political
Economical
Administrative
Security
Law & Order
Data type
Geographic
Demographic
Geo-technical
Geological
Topographical
Meteorological
Seismological
Communication system
Wide Area network-upto village level
Disaster proof-satellite based-2 way
Steps Towards Enhancing Capability
to Detect and Predict Extreme Events
and Dissemination of Warnings
• Met. Modernization Plan -Seamless
system of Weather Observations and
Prediction
• Multi-Hazard Integrated
Decision Support System
• Sub-District level agro-advisory
system
• Outreach- a 24x7 Dedicated
Weather Channel
…thank you