Transcript Climate Access Roundtable Friday, April 11, 2014

Communicating about
the National Climate
Assessment:
Background and
Talking Points
Climate Access Roundtable
Friday, April 11, 2014
Kathy Jacobs
Center for Climate Adaptation Science
and Solutions
University of Arizona
What is the NCA?
• The NCA is an ongoing effort to rigorously evaluate and integrate
scientific knowledge about climate variability and change,
including impacts, vulnerabilities and opportunities, within
sectors and regions across the US.
• It informs the nation about already observed changes, the
current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the
future.
• Under the Global Change Research Act of 1990, the federal
government is required to prepare a report to the President and
Congress at least every four years that synthesizes, analyzes and
evaluates scientific information to help the nation understand
climate related changes and what the expected future impacts
are across the U.S.
How is the NCA Used?
Reports and other products from
the NCA provide a highly
credible, peer reviewed set of
findings that can be used by the
government as well as U.S.
citizens, communities and
businesses as they create more
sustainable and environmentally
sound plans for the nation’s
future.
What is the US Global Change
Research Program (USGCRP)?
• USGCRP’s 13 federal agencies have
worked for the past 23 years to
coordinate their science and research
investments (including satellite systems,
on-the-ground measurements, modeling,
and data management) and to
understand, predict, assess and respond
to changes in global trends, particularly
those associated with climate variability
and change.
• For more information about USGCRP, see
www.globalchange.gov.
What is new about the Third NCA?
• It is a sustained scientific process, rather than a one-time periodic
report-writing activity;
• The NCA includes climate impacts and projections, but also assesses
progress in response activities such as adaptation (preparedness)
and mitigation (managing emissions of heat-trapping gases);
• Partnerships inside and outside of the government support this
effort, including organizations and individuals in both the public and
the private sectors;
• National indicators of change within regions and sectors are being
developed, along with consistent and ongoing methods for
evaluation of progress in limiting risk;
• Unlike previous NCA reports, this report will be entirely web-based;
this allows easier access to the data for citizens, decision-makers
and scientists and a transparent “line of sight” between data and
conclusions;
• This NCA is designed to support decision making processes within
and across regions and sectors of the U.S. in a “risk-based”
framework
What are the Objectives of the NCA?
• The NCA is an inclusive, nationwide process with many key
objectives, including:
– Evaluating, integrating and assessing relevant climate science
and information from multiple sources both inside and outside
the federal government;
– Summarizing and synthesizing the findings of the USGCRP;
– Increasing understanding of what is known and not known
about climate change;
– Informing climate science research priorities;
– Building climate assessment capacity, including vulnerability
assessment and documentation of impacts in regions and
sectors;
– Supporting climate-literacy and skilled use of NCA findings.
– Incorporating on-the-ground knowledge of resource managers,
academics, and citizens
What topics are covered in the
NCA3 Report?
The NCA3 report documents how climate change impacts different regions
and sectors across the United States, including:
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Climate Science (“Our Changing Climate”)
Human Health | Land Use and Land Cover Change
Agriculture | Forestry | Ecosystems and Biodiversity
Water Resources | Energy Supply and Use | Transportation
Urban Infrastructure and Vulnerability | Rural Communities
Biogeochemical Cycles | Oceans and Marine Resources
Tribal, Indigenous, and Native Lands and Resources
Coastal Zone | Adaptation, Mitigation and Decision Support
Research Needs | Sustained Assessment
*Many of these topics are treated as integrated assessments across multiple
regions or sectors. There is also a section on Commonly Asked Questions
section that appears as an Appendix to the Climate Science chapter.
Why is the NCA Important?
Decision-makers from a broad array of sectors,
regions, and businesses will depend on the NCA for
information that is easily accessible and highly
credible. This NCA is the largest and most carefullyvetted national climate assessment ever
undertaken. It involved 30 chapter author teams, a
total of 300 authors, and over 800 direct
contributors. It was reviewed by the public,
government agencies and a panel of the National
Academies over a period of more than a year.
The authors were
selected by a 60 person
federal advisory
committee representing
a wide array of expertise
and experience. They
selected a wide range of
authors, including
authors from the private
sector, NGO’s, academia,
and state and federal
government as well
as experts in helping
manage resources and
make decisions.
Who are
the Authors?
Usefulness for “the Public”
Private citizens will find that this
NCA uses highly accessible
language and includes a lot of
graphics that help "tell the
story" of climate variability and
change, and how we can tell the
difference between "normal"
variability and long-term
trends. Examples in the report
tie the findings to the kinds of
changes that are observable
within states and regions and in
people's back yards.
Transparency and Access
The NCA is the first major government report to be
submitted electronically as an interactive
website. The website is designed to maximize
transparency and utility to decision-makers because
all of the graphics and key findings in the NCA are
electronically linked to background data, literature,
and other resources. Over time, more tools and
search capacity will be added to maximize easy
access to the information in the NCA.
Frequently Asked Questions
A particularly useful
place to find answers
to the most difficult
and often-repeated
questions about
climate can be found
in the Frequently
Asked Questions
appendix.
NCA Regions
NCA products
• The full 1300 plus pages of report, references and
"traceable accounts" that explain the author's
conclusions and thought processes will be included
in the interactive web version at globalchange.gov
• The printed products include:
– A 100 plus page "highlights" document that has a lot of
graphics.
– There are also two page handouts for each region, and
– A number of handouts pulled from the "highlights" that
illustrate the 12 major report findings
– A four page summary of the report Key Findings
What is IPCC?
• The United Nations Environmental Programme and the
World Meteorological Organization established The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988.
The IPCC is a global organization that collects and assesses
the scientific literature related to climate change and its
environmental and socioeconomic impacts.
• It has released four reports, the most recent in 2007.
• The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is being released in
three parts. Working Group I (WGI-physical science report)
was released in September 2013, and Working Group II
(adaptation and vulnerabilities) and III (options for
mitigation and our long-term future) are appearing in
March and April 2014, respectively.
NCA/IPCC Comparison
• Both reports assess existing science and involve extensive
input from the scientific community, as well as input from
NGOs and leaders in business and industry. Similarities in
findings (based on the 2013 Draft NCA) include:
– Climate change is occurring now, and it is occurring everywhere.
– Climate change is primarily caused by human activities,
especially greenhouse gases emitted by burning fossil fuels and
deforestation.
– Climate change is already affecting many types of extreme
weather and will continue to do so.
– The economic costs of climate change will increase substantially
if emissions are not controlled.
– Climate change threatens human health, food security,
infrastructure, and many other aspects of our well being.
– Climate change mitigation efforts will create many shorter-term
co-benefits (for example, benefits to human health).
Differences between IPCC and NCA
• The NCA discusses impacts to eight distinct regions of the
United States, seven sectors, and six cross-sectoral topics
as well as existing and potential U.S. adaptation and
mitigation actions.
• The IPCC discusses North America as a whole (as one
region) without systematically breaking it into smaller
regions or going into the same level of detail.
• The IPCC process to develop the Summary for
Policymakers involves negotiations across 122 countries –
the NCA contents are solely those of the authors and the
members of the federal advisory committee, after
multiple rounds of review.
• The NCA is focused on community building and a
sustained assessment process, rather than on a literature
review