Transcript Climate Decision Maker Survey: Wave 1

Climate Decision
Maker Survey
WAVE 1 Report of Findings
Embargoed Until: 2 July 2008
1
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Table of Contents
Introduction
4
Description of Experts Surveyed
5
Executive Summary
8
Detailed Report
3
14
Climate Change: In Context
15
Actors
24
Policy
32
Technology
36
Biodiversity and Land-Use
41
Outlook
46
Introduction
•
The Climate Decision Makers Survey is unique. It tracks the views of
professionals that are in positions to make or influence large decisions regarding
climate change in their organizations and society. It provides an essential
ground-up view of the barriers and opportunities facing global society’s response
to climate change.
•
GlobeScan, in partnership with the World Bank, IUCN, IDRC, the World Energy
Council, WBCSD, The Centre, ICLEI, and the COM+ Alliance will be conducting
regular surveys with climate change decision makers. The results of these
studies will be broadly publicized to help guide climate change decision making
in all sectors.
•
This report analyzes the findings from the inaugural survey conducted from
November 2007 to March 2008.
Notes to Readers
4
•
Unless otherwise noted, all figures in charts are percentages.
•
Totals percentages may not add to 100 because of rounding.
•
In the case of bar charts, white space typically represents the portion of experts who either
answered “do not know” or did not answer at all (i.e., DK/NA).
Description of Decision Makers Surveyed
5
•
The extensive networks of partner organizations and individuals hand-picked for their
relevant positions were invited to participate in this first survey on climate change solutions.
•
In total, 1,351 qualified climate change experts completed the survey by the closing date of
March 1, 2008.
•
The findings represent the views of senior officials in government, business leaders,
scientists/academics, and civil society leaders, spread across more than 120 countries. The
accompanying tables illustrate the composition of respondents by sector and geographical
location and also by geographical scope of work.
•
In addition to having global and sectoral representation, 64 percent of respondents have
been working in a field related to climate change solutions or sustainable development for at
least six years.
•
Forty-three percent indicate they are in a senior role in their organization, with a further 25
percent holding middle level positions. In terms of self-identified role in climate solutions, 45
percent indicate they are solution influencers, 22 percent are planners/developers, 13
percent are decision implementers, and 10 percent identify as key decision makers.
•
Extra efforts will be taken before the second survey to increase the percentage of
professionals in positions to make key climate-impacting decisions who have not yet
become involved in this initiative, in order to better reflect the full array of climate decision
makers.
Survey Respondents
By Sector and Geographical Location (Percentage of n=1,351)
6
Survey Respondents
By Sector and Geographical Scope of Work* (Percentage of n=1,351)
- Illustrating the broad scope of the panel
7
*Multiple mentions allowed
Executive Summary
Climate Change: In Context
•
Climate change is a major factor affecting the professional lives of a large majority of
experts who participated in the survey, especially in high-GDP per capita countries.
•
Experts agree that progress on both mitigation and adaptation to date has been poor.
•
Respondents believe that there is currently little consensus on solutions to climate change.
This ongoing research initiative is intended to help advance worldwide consensus on
responses to climate change by providing a quantitative input to decision making processes
in all sectors.
•
Overall, there are five principal themes that emerge from the WAVE 1 survey:
1. A broad, holistic approach to climate decision making is required, within the context of
sustainable development.
2. The performance of key actors––particularly national governments––has been
inadequate to date.
3. Decision makers are most in need of political support, policy development, and
regulatory clarity. Governments must take the lead.
4. After policy, technology development has a key role, particularly in seizing the many
opportunities that experts see in the areas of demand management and energy
efficiency and conservation.
5. The protection of biodiversity is seen as a crucial element, not least for its carbon
capturing capacity.
8
Executive Summary
Holistic Approach
9
•
Given the complexity and scope of climate change issues, sustainable development is considered
the most important framework in which climate decisions should be taken.
•
Strong majorities of respondents also emphasize the need to invest in ecosystems and
biodiversity protection as the top priority for advancing appropriate climate change solutions.
•
Fewer experts believe that more narrowly defined principles, such as atmospheric CO2 caps,
energy security, and especially cost-effectiveness should govern decision making that pertains to
climate change.
Executive Summary
Actors
10
•
Decision makers and influencers give the governments of the United States, China, and
India the worst ratings for climate change performance. The lack of leadership and action by
the United States is considered the greatest failure.
•
Conversely, the science community and the IPCC are lauded for their good work.
Environmental NGOs and the European Union also receive positive performance ratings.
•
Leadership at the national government level is considered by far the most important
requirement for progress towards climate solutions.
•
Among all resources required to address climate change, garnering political support is the
most essential.
•
Respondents point to leadership and support as the most important things that their
organizations require in order to put mitigation solutions in place.
Executive Summary
Policy
11
•
Removing subsidies that promote high-carbon activities and urgent public policy development at
all levels are seen as the top priorities for advancing climate solutions.
•
The use of voluntary approaches receives much less support, perhaps due to observed
shortcomings of existing voluntary frameworks.
•
Decision makers and influencers also make clear that pricing carbon and setting regulatory
targets are essential for advancing climate solutions.
•
Overall, the research sends a clear message that governments must assume leadership on
climate change so that other sectors can implement appropriate climate strategies and solutions.
Executive Summary
Technology
12
•
Overall, technology development and transfer rank as very high priorities, up with the reform
or removal of subsidies and urgent public policy initiatives in developing climate solutions.
•
Mitigation technology efforts will focus on demand management and efficiency, followed by
the application of renewables. Decision makers believe that demand management and
efficiency will deliver fully 47 percent of the carbon savings needed by their organization
over the next decade.
•
Respondents predict that significant resources will be directed toward carbon capture
technologies, but demand management and low-carbon energy sources are seen as far
greater organizational priorities.
•
Over the longer term, majorities of respondents foresee solar (photovoltaic and passive) and
wind technologies yielding the greatest benefits for lowering atmospheric carbon levels over
the next 25 years.
•
First generation bio-fuels from food crops are rated lowest of 18 technologies in terms of
their potential to reduce carbon emissions without unacceptable side effects; and second
generation fuels from field waste and forest biomass are also given only modest ratings.
•
Decision makers, even those working in electrical utilities, have little enthusiasm for
currently available nuclear generation technology to reduce atmospheric carbon levels, and
the same goes for clean coal and hydrogen technologies.
Executive Summary
Outlook
13
•
Decision makers and influencers expect a slight reallocation of resources over the short
term from mitigation to adaptation as society struggles to achieve consensus on addressing
climate change.
•
Respondents are almost unanimous in calling for an effective international post-2012
agreement that includes all major emitting countries, and has rich countries transferring aid
and technology to developing country signatories, as well as legally binding country targets.
They are not confident this will be in place by 2009.
•
The research suggests that key challenges remain to build adequate political support for
effective climate leadership to emerge.
Detailed Report
14
Climate Change: In Context
•
Public opinion polls show unprecedented engagement by the general public on climate
change. In a recent 21-country GlobeScan poll on energy and climate change,* two-thirds of
people (65%) think that it is necessary to take major steps very soon to reduce the human
impact on climate change, with a further one-quarter admitting that modest steps in the
coming years is necessary (25%). These findings underscore the importance of the Climate
Decision Makers Survey.
•
When it comes to defining the best solutions to climate change, however, participating
decision makers and influencers see little consensus globally. Only one-quarter (25%)
believe consensus exists, whereas nearly four in ten each are neutral or think that little
consensus exists on climate solutions. Consequently, progress to date on climate solutions
is widely seen by respondents as poor.
•
When asked unaided what area is in the most urgent need of consensus today in order to
advance climate solutions, reducing CO2 emissions through tax, caps, and targets is
mentioned most frequently (25%) by experts. Panelists also believe that energy
sustainability and conservation must be addressed (18%).
•
Given a list of possible contexts and frameworks within which climate decisions and actions
need to be taken, respondents put high emphasis on sustainable development (88%). There
is also strong support for protection of biodiversity (78%), agreed maximum CO2
concentrations (77%), burden-sharing (76%), and energy security (75%). Respondents put
relatively low emphasis on moving toward a zero carbon economy (62%) and costeffectiveness (52%).
15 *See GlobeScan’s 2007 Climate Change Monitor, available by subscription.
Climate Change: In Context
16
•
Decision makers were asked to rate different things their organizations require in order to
implement climate adaptation solutions. Political support and funding far outweigh reliable
forecasts and projections. Three-quarters (75%) say that more political support is needed,
followed by two-thirds (65%) saying more financial resources and public/consumer support
in order to implement climate adaptation solutions.
•
Less than one-half of respondents (46%) think that more reliable forecasts and projections
are needed. For many, it appears that current projections have evolved beyond a key
threshold of certainty.
•
Not entirely discounting the need for forecasts and projections, one in ten respondents freely
point out that accurate forecasts and models are still required to significantly improve
society’s ability to adapt to the impacts of climate change, after increasing awareness (22%)
and improving energy efficiency (13%).
•
Increasing awareness and education (29%), followed by improving energy efficiency (15%),
are also mentioned as the highest-yielding actions their organization can undertake to
improve society’s ability to adapt to climate change.
Climate Change: In Context
17
•
Compared with other factors that influence experts’ professional activities, climate change ranks
among the top three factors for two-thirds of respondents (68%). Respondents in developed
countries report a higher level of climate change impact on their organization and professional
activities.
•
On average, two-thirds of the resources their organizations currently allocate to climate change are
directed toward mitigation (e.g., reducing emissions) and one-third (34%) focus on adapting to the
effects of climate change. In five years’ time, they expect the focus on adaptation to increase
slightly, changing the ratio to 59:41.
•
In reducing their own organization’s carbon emissions over the next ten years, respondents expect
half of the reductions (47%) to come from energy demand management and efficiency
improvements, one-third (35%) from lower-carbon energy sources, and 18 percent from carbon
capture. Clearly, experts believe much work remains to be done in terms of conservation and
efficiency, with many more gains still available.
•
Echoing this, respondents cite reducing energy consumption and improving efficiency as the
highest-yielding action their sector or organization can undertake to reduce levels of climate
changing gases in the atmosphere. Respondents cite financial support, political leadership and
support, and various other frameworks and targets as necessary in order for them to put climate
mitigation solutions into place.
Subjects Requiring Urgent Consensus to
Advance Climate Change Solutions
Unprompted
18
Progress on Global Society’s Response to
Climate Change
Mitigation Progress vs Adaptation Progress
19 The white space in this chart represents “DK/NA.”
Importance of Selected Frameworks for
Climate Decisions and Actions
20 The white space in this chart represents “DK/NA.”
Degree of Influence Climate Change Has on
Professional Activities/Organizations
21
Allocation of Climate Change Resources
within Organization
Mean Percentages, Today vs Five Years from Now
*
**
*Of the 1,243 respondents who answered the question, 20 percent (n=249) said “No
resources at all directed at climate change.” Mean percentage is based on n=994.
**Of the 1,256 respondents who answered the question, 7 percent (n=88) said “No resources
22 at all directed at climate change.” Mean percentage is based on n=1,168.
Predicted Distribution of Effort across
Climate Change Mitigation Approaches
Mean Percentages, over Next Ten Years
23
Actors
24
•
Leadership and support is a common underlying theme throughout the research. There is
overall agreement that actions need to be taken to address climate change, yet in order to
take the necessary steps forward, it is evident that enhanced leadership and governance is
required.
•
Support from political actors, consumers, businesses, and financial institutions are rated as
important by more respondents than are technology and reliable forecasts. Sixteen percent
of respondents also name leadership and support as the tool their organization requires
most to put mitigation solutions into place.
•
Further, large majorities of experts think that support and leadership from various levels of
government, especially national governments, is vital to their organization and sector’s
ability to implement climate solutions.
•
Yet, when rating the performance of 20 various actors over the past year, only a handful are
viewed positively overall. Topping the list of poor performers, the US government is seen as
performing poorly by nearly nine in ten respondents (88%). The lack of leadership from the
United States on the climate agenda is also mentioned most often as the most negative
thing that has happened in the past year related to climate change (by one-quarter of
respondents or 24%). Generally, the need for US government involvement in climate
solutions is echoed throughout the results.
Actors
25
•
The national governments of India and China are also largely implicated as performing
poorly on climate change, followed closely by industry associations and capital markets.
Moderate majorities also assign poor ratings to supranational bodies, global companies,
consumers, the G8 countries, and local, provincial/state, and national governments.
•
Despite largely unsatisfactory performance ratings for a majority of the actors, a clear leader
stands out–-the UN’s IPCC. The organization outperformed all other actors on climate
change over the past year (79% “good”). Environmental NGOs, the European Union, policy
institutes, and the United Nations also receive positive ratings for past year performance, as
do respondents’ own organization and the media. However, ratings are more muted in
comparison.
•
In addition to being rated highly, the IPCC’s joint Nobel Prize win with Al Gore is seen as the
second-most positive thing, after increased global awareness and interest, that happened
for climate change over the past year.
Actors
•
In addition to political support, action at the individual level is also considered by experts to
be important. Increasing awareness and consensus at various levels of society, especially
the consumer level, is commonly mentioned as a required tool or action that is essential for
progress on climate solutions. Eight in ten respondents agree that promoting low-carbon
lifestyles (80%) and unlocking appropriate consumer behavior (78%) should be given high
priority over the next two years.
•
In GlobeScan’s 2007 public opinion survey on climate change in 20+ countries,* eight in ten
people and majorities in all countries believed that significant lifestyle changes will be
necessary to address climate change. Three-quarters of people and majorities or pluralities
in all countries indicate that they are personally ready to make such changes. While actual
readiness to change is likely significantly less, this research suggests that consumers do
see themselves as very much part of the solution.
26 *See GlobeScan’s 2007 Climate Change Monitor, available by subscription.
Resources Required to Implement Climate
Adaptation Strategies
“More Required (4+5)”
27
Efforts in Addressing Climate Change
“Good Performance (4+5)” vs “Poor Performance(1+2),” over Past Year
*“Good performance (4+5)” minus “Poor performance (1+2)”
28 The white space in this chart represents “average performance (3)” and “DK/NA.”
Prioritizing Factors Contributing to Climate
Change Solutions
“High Priority (4+5)” over Next Two Years
29
Most Positive Thing for Climate Change
over Past Year
Unprompted
30
Most Negative Thing for Climate Change
over Past Year
Unprompted
31
Policy
32
•
Policy initiatives such a removing subsidies that promote high-carbon activities and public
policy development in general are seen by decision makers and influencers as the most
important priorities related to climate solutions.
•
Especially in North America and Europe, respondents nearly unanimously believe that
subsidies that promote high-carbon activities should be removed in order to advance climate
solutions overall (86% “high priority”).
•
A similar proportion of experts (85%) think that public policy development at all levels should
be given high priority over the next two years in order to advance appropriate climate
solutions. In comparison, only one-half of respondents (52%) emphasize the need for
voluntary approaches over the next two years, perhaps reflecting the poor results of some
voluntary initiatives in the recent past.
•
Experts widely look to national governments (92%) ahead of global institutions (77%) and
local level governments (70%) for the public policies and leadership that their organizations
need in order to implement climate solutions. While majorities of at least seven in ten think
leadership and policy from local, state, supranational, and global level institutions is
essential, the onus appears to be on national governments to take the lead and stimulate
movement at the various other levels.
Policy
33
•
When asked unaided what major area is in the most urgent need of consensus today in
order to advance climate solutions generally, policy development is an underlying theme.
One in ten (8%) think consensus on regulatory targets, policies, and common goals is
needed, with an additional 3 percent specifically mentioning the need for post-2012
agreements and policies. Further to this, one-quarter of respondents spontaneously mention
reducing carbon emissions through some sort of taxation, target, or cap-and-trade system.
•
Similarly, the need for public policy on climate solutions for their specific organization and
sector is also evident. Along with regulatory targets and policies specifically (3%), carbon
taxes (12%), a post-2012 action plan (2%), and increased government involvement (3%) are
spontaneously mentioned as priorities for climate action within their organization.
•
In order to effectively implement climate adaptation solutions (including policies, plans, and
investments), respondents largely agree that more political support, over any other
resource, is required (75%).
•
Leadership and support (16%) and frameworks, plans, and targets (14%) are also identified
as requirements that are specifically needed in order to implement climate mitigation
solutions.
Prioritizing Factors Contributing to Climate
Change Solutions
“High Priority (4+5)” over Next Two Years
34
Importance of Leadership, Policy,
Targets/Standards and Planning for
Progress within Sector
“Important (4+5),” by Societal Level
35
Technology
36
•
The role of technology development in climate solutions is emphasized throughout the findings. Eight
in ten respondents, each, emphasize the need for advancing research and development of new
technology (83%) and promoting technology transfer between developed and developing countries
(82%) over the next two years in order to advance appropriate climate solutions. Applying currently
available technology is also deemed as a significant priority (78%).
•
Unprompted, two in ten respondents mention energy sustainability or technology development as
topic areas that are in the most urgent need of consensus. In a separate question, three-quarters
emphasize the need for climate decisions and actions within the framework of energy security.
•
Addressing energy efficiency is among the top priorities for climate action within respondents’
organizations and sectors and it is specifically mentioned among the highest-yielding actions that
organizations and global society can undertake in order to adapt to the impacts of climate change
(13%).
•
Some respondents report that their organization will devote a significant amount of effort toward
carbon capture over the next ten years. However, on average, less than 20 percent of mitigation
results are predicted to come from carbon capture. Lower-carbon sources of energy are expected to
deliver 35 percent of carbon reductions, while nearly half will come from demand management and
efficiency (46%).
•
The role for energy efficiency and alternatives is underscored by the number of respondents who
specify it as the highest-yielding action their organization or sector could take to physically reduce the
amount of climate changing gases entering the atmosphere (29%). A further 8 percent point to
investing in new technology and innovation specifically.
Technology
37
•
When rating the potential role of 18 specific technologies in reducing atmospheric carbon
over the next 25 years without unacceptable side effects, respondents rate both solar
electric (i.e., photovoltaic cells) and solar hot water and passive solar as having the greatest
potential (74% “high potential”). Furthermore, some respondents volunteer that solar thermal
energy and solar concentrators or furnaces offer important potential to lower atmospheric
carbon levels over the next 25 years.
•
Wind energy, both off-shore and land-based, receive second tier ratings with two-thirds of
respondents seeing promise in this form of energy production (65% and 62%, respectively).
•
A slight majority (54%) rate co-generation (combined heat and electricity) as having great
potential over the next 25 years, likely because of promising efficiency gains from its use.
Technology
38
•
Respondents are the most skeptical about the future of bio-fuels. First generation bio-fuels
produced from food crops are rated as having the least potential for reducing carbon
emissions over the next 25 years (52% “low potential”). They are less pessimistic about
second generation bio-fuels from field waste and biomass from forests. This outlook on biofuels may have implications for recent policy commitments toward expanding its production,
especially in light of increasing food prices and deforestation.
•
Overall, respondents are divided on key electricity generation methods in terms of potential
to lower carbon levels in the atmosphere over the next 25 years. They are especially divided
on the potential of nuclear power (both next-generation and currently-available), clean coal
technology (both new build and retrofit), and hydrogen.
•
In addition to solar thermal energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), improved
efficiencies, and especially geothermal energy (3%) are mentioned as other technologies
that have the potential to reduce atmospheric carbon over the next 25 years.
Prioritizing Factors Contributing to Climate
Change Solutions
“High Priority (4+5)” over Next Two Years
39
Rating Energy Technologies’ Potential to Lower
Atmospheric Carbon Levels
“High Potential (4+5)” vs “Low Potential (1+2),” over Next 25 Years
*“High potential (4+5)” minus “Low potential (1+2)”
40 The white space in this chart represents “Average potential (3)” and “DK/NA.”
Biodiversity and Land-Use
41
•
Respondents believe that a whole-system approach to climate change solutions such as the
framework of sustainable development is preferable over one that is guided by simply
numerical targets. Similarly, strong emphasis is placed on the importance of the protection
of biodiversity in guiding climate actions, along with agreeing on a maximum CO2
concentration for the atmosphere, appropriate burden-sharing, and energy security. Lesser
emphasis is put on a zero carbon economy and cost-effectiveness. Nine in ten (88%)
respondents think it is important for climate decision and actions to be taken in the frame of
sustainable development, while eight in ten respondents (78%) think it is important that
climate decisions and actions are made within the framework of biodiversity protection.
•
Underscoring the importance of biodiversity protection, respondents largely agree that in
order to advance climate solutions overall, increasing investment in ecosystems and
biodiversity should be given high priority over the next two years (81%). The need for
investing in biodiversity is especially emphasized by respondents in Asia, Africa, and Latin
America, where it is viewed as the top priority.
Biodiversity and Land-Use
42
•
Habitat protection is spontaneously mentioned as the greatest priority overall for climate
action within respondents’ own sectors and organizations (17%). Respondents working in
NGOs, academia or research institutions, and governments are more inclined to prioritize
climate action in the framework of conservation and biodiversity protection, as are experts in
low-GDP per capita countries.
•
Furthermore, protecting and conserving biodiversity and ecosystems is recognized as one of
the highest-yielding actions that experts’ own organizations (11%), as well as society in
general (6%), can take to significantly improve society’s ability to adapt to the impacts of
climate change and significantly reduce levels of climate changing gases in the atmosphere
at the same time.
Importance of Selected Frameworks for
Climate Decisions and Actions
43 The white space in this chart represents “DK/NA.”
Prioritizing Factors Contributing to Climate
Change Solutions
“High Priority (4+5)” over Next Two Years, by Region
44
Prioritizing Factors Contributing to
Climate Change Solutions:
Investment in Natural Ecosystems/Biodiversity
“High Priority (4+5)” over Next Two Years, by Region
45
Outlook
46
•
Going forward, decision makers and influencers emphasize the importance of a post-Kyoto
settlement in the short term. Eighty percent of respondents think that international diplomacy
on a post-Kyoto agreement should be given high priority over the next two years in order to
advance appropriate climate solutions.
•
However, respondents are divided on whether a post-2012 global agreement will be
concluded by the UN target date of December 2009. Thirty-six percent hold a neutral
position, three in ten (30%) think it is likely that international negotiations will finalize an
agreement by 2009, and one-third think it is unlikely (33%).
•
It is interesting that respondents who completed the survey after the Bali Climate
Conference in December 2007 are more optimistic about reaching an agreement than those
who completed the survey before the conference (36% vs 28%).
Outlook
47
•
Asked to rate the importance of various possible components of an adequate post-2012
global agreement, strong majorities give high ratings to inclusion of all major carbon-emitting
countries (92%) and commitment by wealthy countries to provide aid/technology transfer to
developing countries (86%). Different types of commitments based on stages of
development (77%) and legally binding targets for each country (75%) receive second-tier
but still strong ratings.
•
Decision makers place less emphasis on the inclusion of various carbon pricing and taxation
systems in an international agreement, despite pointing to reducing CO2 emissions through
various taxes, caps, and targets as the topic that is in most urgent need of agreement today.
While still viewed as important, only six in ten experts think that a global carbon pricing and
international carbon trading system is an essential part of an agreement, while just over
one-half think per capita targets for CO2 emissions for all countries and taxing carbon
emissions consistently across all countries are important components of a post-2012
agreement (54% and 53%, respectively). Including all countries in the world was not seen as
particularly important.
Likelihood International Negotiations Will
Finalize an Agreement by 2009
48
Likelihood International Negotiations Will
Finalize an Agreement by 2009
Pre-Bali vs Post-Bali
The white space in this chart represents “DK/NA.”
“Pre-Bail” refers to people who answered the survey prior to December 15, 2007.
49 “Post-Bali” refers to people who answered the survey after December 15, 2007.
Components of a Post-2012 International
Agreement
“Essential (4+5)”
50
Components of a Post-2012 International
Agreement
“Essential (4+5),” by GDP per capita
51