Transcript Climate Change Coping Strategies

What might be the impacts of climate
change on tourism in the Great
Lakes region?
Dr. Donald F. Holecek
Lori A. Martin
Chang Huh
Charles Shih
Seung-Hyun Kim
Tourism Resource Center
Michigan State University
November 8, 2002
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Statewide Trends in Selected Industry Indicators, 1985-2001
Highway Traffic
Counts
AAC*=3.9%
Index (1985=100)
300
250
Gasoline Prices
AAC*=1.2%
200
H & M** Sales
Tax Collections
AAC*=5.9%
H&M** Use Tax
Collections
AAC*=5.7%
150
H&M** Sales &
Use Tax
Collections
AAC*=5.8%
100
* AAC means average
annual change.
** H&M stands for hotel
and motel.
50
0
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997 1998(P) 1999
2000
2001
Year
Note: In 1998, the value for all three of the Sales & Use Tax Collection points were projected [hence 1998(p)], due to missing data.
Highway traffic counts and gasoline prices were based on actual data.
Sources: Michigan Department of Transportation, AAA Michigan, Michigan Department of Treasury
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Primary Mode of Transportation on
Michigan Pleasure Trips
Bus
2%
Air
2%
Private
Vehicle
96%
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-2001). Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Origins of Pleasure Trips to Michigan
From Within the Study Region
ONT
6%
IL
8%
IN
9%
MI
58%
WI
9%
OH
10%
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-2001). Tourism Resource Center. Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Distribution of Michigan Pleasure Travel
by Region
SW
18%
SE
33%
NE
15%
NW
18%
UP
16%
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-2001). Tourism Resource Center. Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Destination of Michigan Residents’
Pleasure Trips
Other Int'l
3%
Other U.S.
42%
Michigan
51%
Canada
4%
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-2001). Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Distribution of Michigan Trips from Prime
Market Area by Purpose
Other
6%
Business
9%
Visiting
Friends &
Relatives
37%
Recreation
48%
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-1998). Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Distribution of Michigan Pleasure Trips
by Season
Spring
17%
Summer
41%
Winter
16%
Summer - June-August
Fall - September-November
Winter - December-February
Fall
26%
Spring - March-May
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-2001). Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Length of Trip Planning Horizons for
Michigan Pleasure Travelers
0-7 days
31%
31-60 days
12%
8-30 days
35%
Planning horizons
are short and
becoming shorter.
over 61
days
22%
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-2001). Tourism Resource Center. Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Percentage of Michigan Residents’ Trips
to Out-of-state Destinations by Month
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-1998). Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Selected Characteristics of Michigan
Pleasure Trips by Season
Variable
Mean Nights Away
From Home
Mean Trip
Expenditures
Mean Trip
Expenditures/Night
% Who Used
Hotel/Motel/Lodge
Spring Summer
Fall
Winter
3.60
4.20
3.39
2.79
$426
$526
$429
$519
$118
$125
$127
$186
47%
40%
45%
46%
Source: Michigan Travel Market Survey (1996-2001). Tourism Resource Center. Michigan State
University.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Comparison of Monthly Temperatures and Traffic Volume
in the Traverse City Area
300
250
Index
200
Temperature
150
Traffic
100
50
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
Time
Sources: Michigan Department of Transportation & Midwestern Climate Center
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Domestic Travel To, From and In
Michigan (Person-trips)
Michigan Residents
22.00 million
17.92 million
Non-Michigan
U.S. Destinations
Michigan
12.53 million
Non-Michigan U.S.
Residents
Michigan held a domestic travel trade deficit of 5.39 million person-trips in 1995.
Source: American Travel Survey. U.S. Census Bureau.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
In 1995, Michigan resident travelers to
other U.S. destinations spent over $1.5
billion more than U.S. visitors from other
states spent in Michigan.
Had this $1.5 billion been captured by
Michigan’s tourism industry, it would
have created about 30,000 jobs for
Michigan residents.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Why the Deficit?
• Climate - Long winters/mud season
• Great Lakes - Barriers to east-west travel
across Michigan
• Geographic Location - To the north of North
American population centers
• Relatively Wealthy Population - Residents
can afford to travel
-etc.-
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Impacts of Warmer Climate on Tourism
• Improved road conditions – more highway
travel
• Longer warm season – more golf, angling,
trail use, beach visits, boating
• Extended second home season
• Shorter snow season in northern Michigan –
shift in winter sports to western. U.P. & outof-state
• Longer “brown/mud” season – less appealing
to driving for pleasure
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Climate Change Coping Strategies
1) Counter inconsistent weather patterns
with more accurate and timely conditions
reports.
2) Adjust timing of promotional message to
fit markets’ reduced trip planning horizons
and existing weather conditions.
3) Expand non-weather dependent offerings
– spa, exercise equipment.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Climate Change Coping Strategies
4) Create packages in partnership with other
“entertainment” assets in your areas.
(Staff should be well versed in what your
area has to offer and should be
forthcoming in providing advice to your
guests.)
5) Design facilities and operating systems to
be flexible and accommodate changes in
weather conditions.
6) Explore what you might do to improve on
Mother Nature.
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University
Contact Information
Dr. Donald F. Holecek
Tourism Resource Center
172 Natural Resources Building
Michigan State University
East Lansing, MI 48824-1222
Phone: 517-353-0793
Fax: 517-432-2296
Email: [email protected]
Tourism Resource Center, Michigan State University