Transcript UNECE/CLRTAP Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air

UNECE/CLRTAP Task Force on
Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
André Zuber
European Commission
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
1. How does hemispheric transport affect air
pollution ?
•What processes and which pollutants (ozone, Hg,
POPs, PM …)?
•What evidence from observations and models?
•What pathways by source region and season?
•What processes need to better known?
•How do processes on the hemispheric scale affect
processes on the local and regional scale?
UNECE/CLRTAP TF HTAP
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
2.How much air pollution from one country or
region to another?
•What evidence from observations?
•What source-receptor relationships from models?
•What model resolution is needed?
•How may models be nested from global to local
scale?
•What improvements of models are needed?
UNECE/CLRTAP TF HTAP
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
3.How much may air pollution change due to
emission changes?
•Are there simple relationships between emission
changes and air pollution?
•How may the source-receptor be infleunced by the
resolution of the models?
UNECE/CLRTAP TF HTAP
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
4.How may the source-receptor relationships
change over the next 20 to 50 years?
•Projected emission changes over different
regions?
•How to construct air emission scenarios?
UNECE/CLRTAP TF HTAP
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
5.How may the source-receptor relationships
change due to global change?
•Changes of the atmosphere including climate
change?
•Significant feedbacks between air pollution and
global change including climate change?
UNECE/CLRTAP TF HTAP
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
6.How confident are we of the results and
what is our best estimate of the uncertainties?
•What techniques for evaluation of models?
•What observation data is needed to evaluate
models to increase confidence?
•What data is available to track long term changes?
•Which processes need to better understood to the
models?
•What is our requirement of minimum level of
certainty?
UNECE/CLRTAP TF HTAP
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
7.What efforts are needed to develop an integrated system of observation data and models?
UNECE/CLRTAP TF HTAP
Policy-Relevant Science Questions
Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air
Pollution:
•What issues in TF HTAP?
•Priorities and in what order?
UNECE/CLRTAP TF HTAP
Thank you
André Zuber
European Commission