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Sustainability
Research Institute
School of something
FACULTYof
OFEarth
OTHER
School
and Environment
The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan:
Where are we going?
Dr Tim Foxon
Sustainability Research Institute, and Centre for Climate
Change Economics and Policy,
School of Earth and Environment
University of Leeds, UK
Overview
• Brief history of climate change targets and challenges for
Copenhagen
• UK Climate Change Act and targets for 2020
• UK Low Carbon Transition Plan and Renewable Energy
Strategy
• Beyond market solutions: A ‘Green New Deal’
UN Climate Change Convention
• UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992):
• to ‘stabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse
gases (GHGs) at a level that avoids dangerous
anthropogenic interference in the climate system’
• ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ between
industrialised and developing countries
• Kyoto Protocol (1997) – industrialised countries agree to 5%
reductions in GHG emissions relative to 1990 by 2008-12
• Few countries will achieve this target
• UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 is
aiming to achieve a ‘comprehensive, ambitious and fair
international climate change deal’ to begin in 2013
• Prospects for a meaningful deal not looking good
Drivers of climate change
• Historically, industrialised countries have been responsible for
majority of CO2 emissions (USA is still 25% of global emissions)
• Emissions of fossil fuel-based CO2 emissions rising at 3% per
annum in 2000-2006, largely due to economic growth in China
and India
• Rising emissions → rising concentrations → temperature
increase → climate impacts (heatwaves, rising sea levels, etc.)
• Doubling concentration to 560 ppm CO2e implies rise of 2-5ºC
• Uncertainties due to feedbacks in system, e.g. rising
temperature melt permafrost, which releases methane, causing
more warming
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels 1850-2000
Source: Stern Review 2007
Atmospheric concentrations of GHGs
Source: Stern Review 2007
Global average temperature 1850-2005
Source: Met Office 2006
Implications for UK GHG emissions
• Already high chance of world exceeding 2ºC temperature rise
• For very small chance of exceeding 4ºC rise by 2100, global
emissions need to peak by 2016 and then reduce by around
3% per year to 2100
• Implies halving global emissions from current 40 GtCO2e to
20-24 GtCO2e by 2050
• Assuming fair allocation of these emissions amongst 9 billion
people by 2050, implies UK share of 2.1 to 2.6 tCO2e per
person
• Implies 80% cut in UK GHG emissions from 797 MtCO2e (in
1990) to 159 MtCO2e by 2050
UK Climate Change Act
• UK Climate Change Act (2008) sets target of 80% reduction
in GHG emissions relative to 1990 by 2050
• All party agreement on this target
• UK Climate Change Committee (2008) recommends a 34%
reduction (interim target) and 42% reduction (intended
target) by 2020
• Government (2009) publishes UK Low Carbon Transition
Plan for meeting interim target
• UK Climate Change Committee Report (2009) argues for a
step-change in the pace of emissions reductions, in order to
meet intended target
Scale of UK emissions reductions needed by 2050
Source: Climate Change Committee Report 2008
UK possible 80% CO2 emissions reduction path
Source: Climate Change Committee Report 2008
Carbon intensity of UK electricity generation
under 80% and 90% emissions targets for 2050
Source: Climate Change Committee Report (2008)
UK Low Carbon Transition Plan
• Government setting out how it will meet Carbon Budgets to
2020
• Interim budget of 34% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 1990
• Implies 18% reduction in GHG emissions on 2008 levels
• 40% of electricity from low carbon sources by 2020
• 30% of electricity from renewables (UK Renewable Energy Strategy)
• Funding up to four demonstration of carbon capture and storage (CCS)
• Facilitating building of new nuclear power stations
• Improving energy efficiency of existing households and
businesses, and regulation for zero-carbon new homes
• Make the UK a centre of green industry
• £120 million investment in offshore wind
• £60 million investment in marine (wave and tidal) energy
Emissions reductions by sector
Source: UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009)
UK Renewable Energy Strategy
• UK committed to sourcing 15% of its energy (electricity, heat
and transport) from renewables by 2020
• 30% renewable electricity generation
• Renewables Obligation for large-scale generation
• New ‘feed-in tariffs’ for small-scale electricity generation
• 12% renewable heat generation
• New Renewable Heat Incentive
• 10% transport energy from renewables
• ‘Sustainably sourced’ biofuels
• Support for demonstration of electric vehicles
Climate Change Committee Report 2009
• Need for step-change in three key areas:
(1) Reform in current electricity market arrangements to
support investment in low-carbon power generation
(2) Policies to promote energy efficiency improvement in the
residential sector
• ‘Whole house’ and ‘Street by street’ approach
(3) Measures to support roll-out of electric cars
• 2 million electric vehicles by 2020
Beyond markets solutions
• Government still hampered by ideological belief in market
solutions, which often have unintended consequences and can
be manipulated by powerful market actors
• E.g. European Emissions Trading Scheme
• Too high caps led to collapse in permit prices in early 2007
• Recession leading to reduction in permit prices again
• Windfall profits for electricity generators
• Renewables Obligation
• Little support for early-stage and small-scale renewables
• Still uncertainties about how new feed-in tariffs will work
• Potential for greater green fiscal stimulus
• Need for continued pressure from civil society actors
Green New Deal
• A ‘Green New Deal’ has been proposed to addresses the
linked financial, energy and climate crunches:
• $80 billion programme of investment in energy efficiency
and local renewable electricity generation
• Creating and training a ‘carbon army’ of workers
• Establishing an Oil Legacy Fund, paid for by a windfall tax
on the profits of oil and gas companies
• Re-regulating the domestic financial system to ensure the
creation of money at low rates of interest, combined with
tighter controls on lending and the generation of credit
• End of ‘cheap oil’ and global financial crises should be seen
as an opportunity to stimulate a transition to a low-carbon
economy
Conclusions
• Low Carbon Transition Plan and Climate Change Committee
Reports represent an important step forward
• But need for greater direct role by government
• Still hampered by ideological belief in market solutions,
which often have unintended consequences and can be
manipulated by powerful market actors
• Need for step-change in levels of investment, e.g. by
transferring resources from military uses
• Huge potential for job creation in low-carbon industries