Transcript David R. Legates, Ph.D. Center for Climatic Research

Climate Change:
The Non-Zero Sum Game
of the CO2 Monster
Willie Soon
May 20th, 2010
AABE Climate Change Policy Panel
Columbus Ohio
(1) ClimateGate and IPCC:
Magical CO2 control knob
does not exist
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
CO2 is rising rapidly!
395
390
385
380
375
370
365
360
355
1995
1998
2001
2004
YEAR
2007
2010
395
0.8
390
0.7
385
0.6
380
0.5
375
0.4
370
0.3
365
0.2
360
0.1
355
1995
0
1998
2001
2004
YEAR
2007
2010
Air Temperature Anomaly (°C)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
…But global temperature isn’t rising!
Real world data do not support the ocean heat
accumulation in the computer models!
Model predictions
Model predictions
Real-world data
Bob Tisdale (February 2nd, 2010-corrected version)
“Writing in 2005, Hansen, Willis, Schmidt et al.
suggested that GISS model projections had been
verified by a solid decade of increasing ocean heat
(1993 to 2003). This was regarded as further
confirmation the IPCC’s AGW hypothesis. Their
expectation was that the Earth’s climate system
would continue accumulating heat more or less
monotonically. Now that heat accumulation has
stopped (and perhaps even reversed), the tables
have turned. The same criteria used to support
their hypothesis, is now being used to falsify it.”
William diPuccio, May 5th, 2009
“No amount of
experimentation
can ever prove me
right; a single
experiment can
prove me wrong.”
Albert Einstein
(2) The CO2 Monster: CO2
is not an air pollutant
Center for the study of
CO2 and Global Change
“So who in the ocean is affected by this
[acidification; ‘Osteoporosis of the sea’]?
Any plants or animals that have a shell or
skeleton made of calcium carbonate [or
chalk]. The hard parts of many familiar
animals such as oysters, clams, corals,
lobsters, crabs … are made of calcium
carbonate. ”
— Dr. Jane Lubchenco, Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans
and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator, December 2, 2009,
testimony on “The Administration’s View on the State of Climate
Science” (1:30-1:55 of her recorded testimony
http://globalwarming.house.gov/pubs?id=0014)
Normal CO2
(400 ppm)
Dr. Justin Ries, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
High CO2
(~7 times larger)
Normal CO2
(400 ppm)
Dr. Justin Ries, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill
High CO2
(~7 times larger)
(3) The Sun and the climate
change story
King Kong “SUN”
Willie Soon
“CO2”
Refrigerator Perry
“Climate”
Solar versus CO2 radiative forcing over the past 150 years
the top of atmosphere (W/m2)
NET radiative forcing at
Here is how the IPCC claims that CO2 dominates!
2
1.7
1.75
1.5
1.25
1
Only the
difference
0.75
0.5
0.2
0.25
0
Sun
CO2
IPCC (2007)
Solar versus CO2 radiative forcing over the past 150 years
Estimated radiative forcing at
the top of atmosphere (W/m2)
Why the Sun is a more important climate driver!
341 341.2
350
300
250
200
Baseline
150
Baseline+Change
100
32
50
33.7
0
Sun
CO2
IPCC (2007)
The Sun is shining on Washington DC?
Solar versus CO2 radiative forcing over the past 150 years
Estimated radiative forcing at
the top of atmosphere (W/m2)
Why the Sun is a more important climate driver!
341 341.2
350
300
250
200
Baseline
150
Baseline+Change
100
32
50
33.7
0
Sun
CO2
IPCC (2007)
(4) CO2 emission
control agenda:
NOT a zero-sum proposition
Bill Gates’s Annual Letter (January 25, 2010):
“The final communiqué of the Copenhagen Summit,
held last December, talks about mobilizing $10 billion
per year in the next three years and $100 billion per
year by 2020 for developing countries, which is over
three quarters of all foreign aid now given by the
richest countries. I am concerned that some of this
money will come from reducing other categories of
foreign aid, especially health. If just 1 percent of the
$100 billion goal came from vaccine funding, then
700,000 more children could die from preventable
diseases.”
The CO2 Monster: Why It is Not the BIG BAD WOLF!
• ClimateGate+IPCC proved conclusively
the thorough corruptions of climate
science in the service of a confused mix
of socio-political agendas related to
energy, economics, environment and
ecology
• A “magical” CO2 knob for controlling
weather and climate simply
DOES NOT EXIST.
• CO2 is not an “air pollutant” – It is food
for plants and marine life!