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Global Climate Change
A tutorial on climate change
causes, trends & regulations
Michael Prather
Kavli Chair & Professor
Earth System Science
UC Irvine
Q: What drives Global Climate Change ?
Changes in Atmospheric Composition
greenhouse gases, aerosols, clouds, water vapor
+
Changes in Land Use
deforestation, desertification, ...
+
Changes in Solar Output
=
Perturbation to Radiative Balance of the
“Climate System”
troposphere, land, and ocean
Q: What is Radiative Forcing ?
Solar Heating of the climate system  200 W m-2
 is balanced by 
Terrestrial InfraRed Cooling  200 W m-2
Greenhouse Gases trap Terrestrial IR
Q: What is Radiative Forcing ?
A perturbation to the climate system
– either natural or anthropogenic –
Is evaluated by the radiative imbalance that it causes
– before the system adjusts –
Is calculated as the global mean Radiative Forcing
– RF in units of W m-2 –
Current anthropogenic RF from
greenhouse gases  +3 W m-2
Q: What is today’s anthropogenic Radiative Forcing ?
Q: What is the History
of Anthropogenic RF ?
COOLING
WARMING
Q: What about natural solar forcing ?
Q: Is the Observed Temperature Change
Consistent with Greenhouse Gases ?
Climate Model Simulations
 (a) with only natural forcing (solar, volcanoes)
 (b) with also anthropogenic gases and aerosols
Q: Why worry about climate change ?
Q: Why worry about climate change ?
Q: Why worry about climate change ?
Q: Why worry about climate change ?
Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change?
1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
adopted in 1992 and entered into force in 1994
(188 ratification – 28 Jan 2003)
1997 Kyoto Protocol
needs 55 parties with 55% of 1990 CO2 emissions
(104 ratification, 43.9% of Annex I – 28 Jan 2003)
Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change?
UN FCCC
ARTICLE 2 OBJECTIVE
The ultimate objective of this Convention
and any related legal instruments that the
Conference of the Parties may adopt is to
achieve, in accordance with the relevant
provisions of the Convention, stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climate system. Such a level should be
achieved within a time-frame sufficient to
allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
climate change, to ensure that food
production is not threatened and to enable
economic development to proceed in a
sustainable manner.
Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change?
UN FCCC
ARTICLE 4 COMMITMENTS
4.1....All Parties, …, shall:
(b)....Formulate, implement, publish and regularly
update national and, where appropriate, regional
programmes containing measures to mitigate
climate change by addressing anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of
all greenhouse gases not controlled by the
Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate
adequate adaptation to climate change;
4.2...The developed country Parties (Annex I)
commit themselves …:
(a)....Each of these Parties shall adopt national
policies and take corresponding measures on
the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its
anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse
gas sinks and reservoirs.
Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change?
Kyoto Protocol
Article 3.1
The Parties included in Annex I shall,
individually or jointly, ensure that their
aggregate anthropogenic carbon dioxide
equivalent emissions of the greenhouse
gases listed in Annex A do not exceed their
assigned amounts, calculated pursuant to
their quantified emission limitation and
reduction commitments inscribed in Annex B
and in accordance with the provisions of this
Article, with a view to reducing their overall
emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent
below 1990 levels in the commitment period
2008 to 2012.
Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change?
Kyoto Protocol Annex A
Greenhouse gases
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)
Sectors/source categories
Energy, Fuel combustion, Energy industries, Manufacturing
industries and construction, Transport, Other sectors,
Fugitive emissions from fuels, Solid fuels, Oil and natural gas,
Mineral products, Chemical industry, Metal production,
Production of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride
Consumption of halocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride
Agriculture, Enteric fermentation, Manure management
Rice cultivation, Agricultural soils, Prescribed burning of savannas
Field burning of agricultural residues, Waste, Wastewater handling, Other
Q: What Conventions/Protocols govern Climate Change?
Kyoto Protocol Annex B
Commitment 2008-2012 to 1990 (%)
Australia 108
Iceland 110
Austria 92
Ireland 92
Belgium 92
Italy 92
Bulgaria* 92
Japan 94
Canada 94
Latvia* 92
Croatia* 95
Liechtenstein 92
Czech Republic* 92
Lithuania* 92
Denmark 92
Luxembourg 92
Estonia* 92
Monaco 92
European Community 92 Netherlands 92
Finland 92
New Zealand 100
France 92
Norway 101
Germany 92
Poland* 94
Greece 92
Portugal 92
Hungary* 94
Romania* 92
Romania* 92
Russian Federation* 100
Slovakia* 92
Slovenia* 92
Spain 92
Sweden 92
Switzerland 92
Ukraine* 100
United Kingdom of Great Britain
and Northern Ireland 92
United States of America 93
Q: What are other Conventions and Protocols ?
1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer
secure a general treaty to tackle ozone depletion
1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances
that Deplete the Ozone Layer
(175 ratification – Dec 2000)
1990 London
(144 ratification – Dec 2000)
1992 Copenhagen
1995 Vienna
...
Q: What are other Conventions and Protocols ?
1979 Geneva Convention on Long-range
Transboundary Air Pollution
interrelationship between sulfur emissions in continental
Europe and the acidification of Scandinavian lakes.
(48 ratification [all Europe] – Dec 2001)
1985 Helsinki Protocol on the Reduction of Sulfur
Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by at least 30 %
(19 signatories / 22 ratification [+Canada] – Dec 2001)
1988 Sofia Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of
Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes
(25 signatories / 28 ratification [+U.S.+Canada] – Dec 2001)
1999 Gothenburg Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication
and Ground-level Ozone
(31 signatories / 1 ratification – Dec 2001)
Q: What are other Conventions and Protocols ?
1992 United Nations Convention on
Biological Diversity
(182 Parties / 168 signatories [-U.S.] – Sep 2001)
The objectives of this Convention, to be pursued
in accordance with its relevant provisions, are the
conservation of biological diversity, the
sustainable use of its components and the fair
and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of
the utilization of genetic resources, including by
appropriate access to genetic resources and by
appropriate transfer of relevant technologies,
taking into account all rights over those resources
and to technologies, and by appropriate funding.
Q: What do we mean by Climate Change ?
Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in
climate over time, whether due to natural variability or
as a result of human activity.
Climate change in the UN FCCC refers to a change of
climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global
atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate
variability observed over comparable time periods.
Q: What is the IPCC?
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and
the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) in 1988.
The role of the IPCC is to assess the scientific,
technical and socio-economic information relevant for
the understanding of the risk of human-induced
climate change. It does not carry out new research
nor does it monitor climate related data. It bases its
assessment mainly on published and peer reviewed
scientific technical literature.
Q: What is the IPCC?
The IPCC has three Working Groups + Task Force:
Working Group I assesses the scientific aspects of the climate
system and climate change.
Working Group II assesses the vulnerability of socio-economic
and natural systems to climate change, consequences of and
options for adapting to it.
Working Group III assesses options for limiting greenhouse gas
emissions and otherwise mitigating climate change.
Task Force on Greenhouse Gas Inventories oversees the national
reporting programs and requirements.
Q: What are the IPCC Assessments ?
Delegations of 99 IPCC
member countries
participated in the Eighth
Session of Working
Group I in Shanghai on
17 to 20 January 2001
and approved the WGI
SPM word-for-word.
Q: What are the IPCC Assessments ?
Robert Watson, IPCC Chair,
John Houghton & Ding Yihui, WGI Co-chairs,
122 Coordinating Lead Authors & Lead Authors,
515 Contributing Authors,
21 Review Editors, and
420 Expert Reviewers (incl. gov’ts).
prepared the WG I scientific assessment:
IPCC Madrid Nov 95
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Q: What Biogeochemical Cycles control
Atmospheric CO2 ?
The Natural Carbon Cycle (Pg-C = Gton-C, Pg-C/yr)
Q: How have we perturbed CO2 ?
The Human Perturbation to the Carbon Cycle: 1980s
Q: Where have CO2
emissions
come from?
Q: Where will energy-CO2 emissions come from?
Q: What about alternative energy sources
or conservation ?
OECD / IEA 2002
Q: What is the big uncertainty in future CO2 ?
Model Projections / Simulations of uptake of Anthropogenic CO2
show possible “saturation” effects.
Q: What is Projected for
Atmospheric CO2 ?
IPCC 2001 Projections
Q: What about the other Greenhouse Gases & Aerosols?
Q: What Greenhouse Agents are Listed under Kyoto ?
listed in Annex A
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)
What are not ?
CFCs & HCFCs (Montreal - OK)
Sulfate Aerosols
Black & Organic Carbon Aerosols
Tropospheric Ozone (O3)
Carbon monoxide (CO)
Nitrogen Oxides (NOX)
Q: How does Energy Use control the old GHGases ?
CH4 emissions (600 Tg-CH4/yr)
energy use
18%
biomass burning
6%
pollution impact
on lifetime
??%
N2O emissions (16 Tg-N/yr)
industrial
8%
biomass burning
3%
agriculture
35%
CFC & HCFC emissions (<< 1 Tg/yr)
refrigeration, foam, propellant, cleaning
phased out under Montreal Protocol
Q: How does Energy Use control the new GHGases ?
PFCs = CF4 + ... (13 Gg/yr ++)
anthropogenic
100%
aluminum, industrial
SF6 emissions (6 Gg/yr ++)
anthropogenic
100%
insulation, electrical switches
HFC emissions (100 Gg/yr ++)
anthropogenic
100%
CFC partial replacements
Q: How does Energy Use control the Aerosols ?
sulfate = SO2 emissions (110 Tg-S/yr)
energy use
67%
biomass burning
2%
Black Carbon emissions (12 Tg/yr)
energy use
55%
biomass burning
45%
Carbonaceous emissions (140 Tg/yr)
energy use
20%
biomass burning
39%
Q: How does Energy Use control the pollution gases ?
CO emissions (2800 Tg-CO/yr)
energy use
32%
biomass burning
25%
NOX emissions (52 Tg-N/yr)
energy use
65%
biomass burning
14%
VOC emissions (600 Tg-C/yr)
energy use
28%
biomass burning
6%
Q: How do non-greenhouse Pollutants impact Climate ?
CH4
CO
CH4
VOC
HFC
OH
O3
HO2
NO
CO, VOC, NOX (=NO+NO2), & CH4 control
Tropospheric Chemistry
is the sink for CH4 & HFCs; the source for O3
Q: How does CO become an indirect greenhouse gas ?
CO
OH
CH4
CO emissions are effectively
equivalent to CH4 emissions:
100 Tg-CO = 5 Tg-CH4
(IPCC, 2001)
O3
CO
OH
CH4
O3
Q: How does short-lived NOx impact Climate ?
NOX
O3
OH
CH4
O3
Anthropogenic GHGas Impact
through Reactive Pollutants to date
CH4
320 Tg(CH4)/y = direct emission
NOx
40 Tg(N)/y
 - 80 Tg(CH4)/y
CO
1000 Tg/y
 + 50 Tg(CH4)/y
VOC
250 Tg/y
 + 30 Tg(CH4)/y
Q: What are the range of projections ?
Q: What is the inertia of the climate system ?
Q: To Whom does all this get reported ?
Marrakech
Nov 2001
Q: Who decides what actions to take ?
Q: Who decides what actions to take ?
COP-8
Q: What next ?
The rules for entry into force
of the Kyoto Protocol require
55 Parties to the Convention
to ratify (or approve, accept,
or accede to) the Protocol,
including Annex I Parties
accounting for 55% of that
group’s carbon dioxide
emissions in 1990.
0.3%
2.1%
17.4%
as of Feb 2003
36.1%
UN Secretary-General receives Russia’s
Kyoto Protocol ratification
Andrey Denisov, Russian Permanent Representative to
the UN and Kofi Annan, UN Secretary-General
"I am very glad to announce that today I received
the Russian Federation’s instrument of ratification
for the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change. I
congratulate President Putin and the Russian
Federation for their leadership in making it possible
for the Protocol to enter into force – as it will, 90
days from tomorrow, on 16 February 2005.
"This is a historic step forward in the world’s efforts
to combat a truly global threat. Most important, it
ends a long period of uncertainty. Those countries
that have ratified the Protocol, and which have been
trying to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
even before its entry into force, now have a legally
binding obligation to do so.
"All countries must now do their utmost to
combat climate change and to keep it from
undermining our efforts to achieve the
Millennium Development Goals.
"I therefore take this opportunity to urge those
developed countries that have not ratified the
Protocol to ratify it and limit their emissions.
"The Parties to the Climate Change Convention
will have their next major meeting in Buenos
Aires from 6 to 17 December. I hope they will
use that occasion to seize the promising
possibilities that have been opened up by this
major development.
Statement attributable to the Secretary-General
upon receiving Russian Federation ratification
18 November 2004
The text of the Protocol to the UNFCCC was adopted at the third
session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC in Kyoto,
Japan, on 11 December 1997; it was open for signature from 16
March 1998 to 15 March 1999 at United Nations Headquarters, New
York. By that date the Protocol had received 84 signatures. Those
Parties that have not yet signed the Kyoto Protocol may accede to it
at any time.
The Protocol is subject to ratification, acceptance, approval or accession
by Parties to the Convention. It shall enter into force on the
ninetieth day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to
the Convention, incorporating Annex I Parties which accounted
in total for at least 55 % of the total carbon dioxide emissions
for 1990 from that group, have deposited their instruments of
ratification, acceptance, approval or accession.
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Q: What Next ?
Q: Where Next ?
Q: What next - - - ?
Q: Who else is involved in Climate Change ?
California AB 1493
Q: Who else ?
the States
California AB 1493
Q: Who else ?
Global Climate Change
is driven by local actions
Michael Prather
Kavli Chair & Professor
Earth System Science
UC Irvine