Transcript Transport and Logistics Research Seminar

Should we really be flying?
Prof. Colin Bamford
University of Huddersfield
President, EBEA
Lecture content
1. The problem of climate change
2. The contribution of air transport to climate change
3. Costs and benefits of air travel
4. What do economists have to say?
5. Will such measures really curb our demand for air
transport?
A few questions . . .
How old were you when you made your first flight?
How old were your children when they made their first flight?
How many times more expensive in real terms was the cost of a flight
from London to New York in 1959 compared to 2009?
How many of you have sought to offset your carbon footprint when
making a journey by air?
Do you really feel that you should be flying less?
The problem of climate change –
Stern Report
Global temperatures are increasing
Temperatures could rise between 2 – 3 degrees (75%
chance) or 5 degrees (50% chance) by the end of this century
Melting glaciers are leading to rising sea leavens and flooding
Massive problems for low lying parts of Asia (e.g. Maldives)
Crop yields in Africa will fall, poverty will increase.
Global projections of demand
(Boeing 2008)
The demand for air travel in the
UK
Global projections of supply
Contribution of air transport to
climate change
Transport is not the only source of greenhouse gas emissions
Industry, agriculture and power generation (esp. coal) are
also substantial contributors
Air transport – 3% of UK total greenhouse gas emissions at
present; projected to increase to 8% by 2020
But remember that one long haul trip is typically equivalent
to around 1 year’s carbon footprint for all other travel
Some relevant benefits
Global tourism – climate is a key resource for tourism; highly
sensitive to impact of climate change
Receipts from international tourism are vitally important for
the well-being of many economies e.g. Caribbean, Maldives,
Mauritius and in Europe, Spain, Turkey, Croatia, Portugal and
so on
In the UK, main argument for Heathrow expansion has been
the business benefits to the City
Airports and airlines are major employers – multiplier effects
also on suppliers ; estimate of 1.6 for Heathrow
Personal and social benefits of leisure air travel especially
Some relevant costs
We could find ourselves with
Ski resorts with no snow
Golf resorts with no water supplies
Coral reefs killed off
Small paradise islands submerged (e.g. Maldives)
Even worse are the catastrophic effects on low lying cities in India,
Bangladesh and the USA and the impact of global warming on huge parts
of Africa and Australia
Local effects of aircraft noise, congestion around airports, loss of valuable
land, environmental degradation and flights
What do economists recommend
– indirect tax!
In the UK, Air Passenger Duty (APD). Big rise announced in
April 2009
But . . .
APD is not an environmental tax – it is really a poll tax on travel
Revenue is not hypothecated into environmental improvements - £2bn
plus goes into the Exchequer's black hole!
Plans to link this to the aircraft and its load factor have been dropped
Crazy situation where APD and other charges are in excess of the actual
fare paid
Could benefit non-UK EU airports such as Schiphol, Paris CDG, Frankfurt,
Zurich etc.
EU’s response – Emissions Trading
Scheme
Air travel is now included. 2011 intra – EU flights, 2012 all
flights
Use of market mechanism to give polluters a form of
property right to pollute to a certain level
Can sell any unused capacity to others
Cost to users will be more focussed that with APD
And what can WE do?
Could limit our discretionary air travel
Could make a contribution to offset carbon footprint e.g.
climate protection projects
Could respect local cultures and natural environment when
we do travel; purchase locally produced food, drink and
souvenirs
Could stay in the UK for holidays; even become
‘stayvacationists’ for a couple of weeks
And if we really cannot do without air travel . . . there is
always Yorkshire Airlines
Other air transport issues
Competition Commission requirement for BAA to
sell off Gatwick, Stansted and either Glasgow or
Edinburgh-monopolistic practices?
Third runway at Heathrow-is it really necessary?
Airport expansion at Stansted
Heavy losses of BA and other scheduled airlines
Growing power of Star Alliance-oligopoly!
Consumer issues with low cost carriers eg Ryanair