Transcript Energy Transport Demand - University of East Anglia

Transport Energy Demand
Strategic Carbon Management MBA
Norwich Business School
University of East Anglia
March 2010
Energy consumption by final user
1970
2008
42.5%
38.0%
29.5%
25.5%
19.5%
19.5%
12.5% 13.0%
Industry
Domestic
Other final users
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Transport
Inland deliveries of transport fuels
1970 to 2008
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Personal Travel – Key figures
Cars account for nearly two thirds of all road transport energy consumption
Car use per person increased by 91 % between 1970 and 1990
Number of cars UK in 2008 – 30m.
Distance travelled by car in 2007 – 15670 km / year
Consumption 1304 PJ - 2007 / Stable level due to fuel efficiency (e.g. 97b. Km
2007 more than in 1990 consuming just 0.014 Pt more energy)
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Influence factors - Energy
consumption for personal travel
Increase in number of cars - 10%
every 5 years
Decrease in distance
travelled/vehicle - 1% per year
Increase of fuel efficiency – 1%
Projection of increase between 2010 and 2030 by 1815 PJ
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Electric cars
Current situation
• Less than 0.1 % of the UK’s cars are electric
• EU and UK have developed policies to promote electric cars
• Electric vehicles have had several false starts.
Concerns
• Lack of capacity to generate electricity from renewable sources
• Safety issues
• Battery range
Predictions
• Energy issues and the need to cut greenhouse gas emissions will increase demand
• Problematic preparation the electric grid to cope with an upsurge in the number of electric cars
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Freight transport– Key figures
Freight transport accounts for around 36 % of the total road transport
46 % increase between 1980 and 2007, from 175 to 255 billion tonne km
Energy consumption in 2007 - 681 PJ
Increase average length of haul by 29 % since 1980 to 87 km. in 2008
Decrease in moved goods by 6 % between 2007 and 2008
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Influence factors - Energy
consumption for freight transport
Slightly decrease in moved goods for 2011 and
progressive increase alongside with the population
growth – 2 %
Increase of fuel efficiency -1 %
Slightly increase and stabilisation in haul
Projection of increase between 2010 and 2030 by 784 PJ
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Key figures – Domestic Aviation
23m. Passengers – 2008 (1998 – 17 m.)
9b. Km. flied – 2008
Domestic flight passenger numbers have fallen over the last two
years
Consumption in 2008 – 508 PJ
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Influence factors - Energy
consumption domestic aviation
Increase 10% number of passengers
1.2 % Annual increase of fuel efficiency
Number of km. / passenger (430 km.
remains stable)
Projection of increase between 2010 and 2030 by 841 PJ
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Projections Energy Consumption
Transport
Year
Aviation
Personal Travel
Freight Transport
2010
574 PJ
1290 PJ
678 PJ
2015
632 PJ
1405 PJ
682 PJ
2020
695 PJ
1530 PJ
701J
2025
764 PJ
1667 PJ
734J
2030
841 PJ
1815 PJ
784 PJ
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY
Predictions 2010-2030
CONTEMPORARY ISSUES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE AND ENERGY