Transcript Slide 1

GLOBEC, Focus 4
and SPACC…
Manuel Barange, GLOBEC IPO. Plymouth
Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth
PL1 3DH, UK. [email protected],
www.globec.org
GOAL: “To advance our understanding of
the structure and functioning of the global
ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems,
and its response to physical forcing so that
a capability can be developed to forecast
the responses of the marine ecosystem to
global change”.
GLOBEC’s Objectives:
• 1- To better understand how multiscale physicalenvironmental processes force large-scale changes in
marine ecosystems
• 2- To determine the relationship between structure and
dynamics in a variety of oceanic systems which typify
significant components of the global ocean ecosystem
• 3- To determine the impacts of global change on stock
dynamics using coupled physical, chemical and
biological models linked to appropriate observation
systems
• 4- To determine how changing marine ecosystems will
affect the global earth system by identifying and
quantifying feedback mechanisms
GLOBEC FOCUSES ON ECOSYSTEM
SCIENCE
• …underpinned by the belief that understanding the role
of variability in the functioning of marine ecosystems is
essential to manage marine living resources.
… YET ASPIRES TO BE POLICY RELEVANT
Reykjavik Declaration on Responsible Fisheries in the
Marine Ecosystem (FAO 2001): signed by over 100 fishing
nations and committing them to undertake research in
pursue of Ecosystem-Based-Fisheries-Management
… we will undertake to...:
...identify and describe the structure, components and
functioning of relevant marine ecosystems, diet
composition and food webs, species interactions and
predator-prey relationships, the role of habitat and the
biological, physical and oceanographic factors affecting
ecosystem stability and resilience
(in other words: GLOBEC research);
USA
Canada
Mexico
Peru
Chile
Brazil
Angola
Namibia
South Africa
Morocco
Mauritania
Senegal
Australia
New Zealand
New Caledonia
Japan
Korea
China
Russia
Ukraine
Turkey
Spain
Portugal
Italy
Germany
France
UK
Netherlands
Denmark
Norway
Countries participating in GLOBEC
activities at national, multinational or
Regional level
GLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
RESEARCH FOCI
o Retrospective
Analysis Working
Group
o Process Studies
WG
GLOBEC
International
Project
Office
o PICES-GLOBEC Climate
Change and Carrying
Capacity
oICES-GLOBEC Cod and
Climate Change
oSouthern Ocean GLOBEC
o Prediction and
Modelling WG
oSmall Pelagic fish And
Climate Change (SPACC)
oFeedback from
Ecosystem Changes
WG
In preparation:
National /
Multinational
Activities
- Large Pelagics
- Sub-Arctic Ecosystems
Climate Change and Carrying
Capacity (PICES-CCCC)
1.0
Shrimp
Cod/ Pollock
0.6
Flatfish
1998
1989
1979
1980
1971
Other
1962
1953
0.2
Cod and Climate Change Programme
(ICES-CCC)
Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANIC TOP
PREDATORS (CLIOTOP). Leader: P Lehodey,
New Caledonia; O Maury, France
60
- 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 - 60 - 70 - 80 - 90 - 100 - 110 - 120 - 130 - 140 - 150 - 160 - 170 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
- 10 - 20
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0
- 10
- 10
- 20
- 20
- 30
- 30
- 40
- 40
- 50
- 50
- 60
- 20 - 30 - 40 - 50 - 60 - 70 - 80 - 90 - 100 - 110 - 120 - 130 - 140 - 150 - 160 - 170 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90
YFT
Total prises 90-97
BFT
SKJ
ALB
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
- 60
- 10 - 20
8000
BET
Standardised Blue fin
tuna numbers
2
1
0
-1
-2
Ravier & Fromentin 2001: ICES J Mar Sci 58
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
ECOSYSTEM STUDIES OF
SUBARCTIC SEAS (ESAS). Leader: G
Hunt, USA
Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)
The long-range goal is to forecast
how the productivity of small
pelagic fish populations will be
altered by climate variability and
change. SPACC will involve
process studies, based on
comparisons of standard
measurements from different
ecosystems, and retrospective
studies built around
palaeoecological and genetic data.
Chairpersons : Claude Roy (France)/ Dave Checkley (USA)
15%
1%
14%
1%
7%
10%
8%
14%
What are SPACC’s challenges?
- The urgency of stock assessments
- Luxury science for developing countries?
- Geographical distance between scientists
- Lack of administrative “home”
- The science itself
30%
Flounders, halibuts, soles
Cods, hakes, haddocks
Redfishes, basses, conge
Jacks, mullets, sauries
Herrings, sardines, anchovies
Tunas, bonitos, billfish
Mackerels, snoeks, cutlassfishes
Sharks, rays, chimaeras
Miscell marine fishes
Why SPACC?
- Small pelagic fish account for 1/3 of world’s catches
- Worldwide distribution
- Abundant in similar environments (upwelling regions)
- Major importance for the economy of developing regions
- Vulnerable to decadal variability in environment
SPACC Structure - March 2000
SPACC Executive Committee 2003
J Alheit (Germany)
M Barange (UK)
T Baumgartner (Mexico)
L Castro (Chile)
D Checkley (USA- co- Chair)
R Guevara (Peru)
L Motos (Spain)
H Nakata (Japan)
C Roy (France- co-Chair)
C van der Lingen (South Africa)
… to develop comparative integration activities, in support of existing field
work, along four research themes:
 Long term Changes in Ecosystems
 Comparative Population Dynamics
 Reproductive Habitat Dynamics
 Economic Implications of Climate Change
Theme 1: Long term
Changes in Ecosystems
Lead: J Alheit/ T Baumgartner
Scale deposition rate
30
Pacific Anchovy
Pacific Sardine
20
10
0 900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
- SUPPORT MONITORING RESEARCH PROGRAMMES, CURATE LONG
TERM TIME SERIES AND PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES.
e.g. Workshop on Long-term changes in the NE and SE
Pacific. Lima, Peru, May 2001. Funding: IAI-EPCOR and
GLOBEC.
-PROMOTE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PALEOCEANOGRAPHIC
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND DEVELOP COMMON METHODOLOGIES.
e.g. GLOBEC Paleoceanographic methodology workshop.
Munich, Germany, October 2001. Funding: Local.
Theme 2: Comparative Population Dynamics
Lead: M Barange (UK)
-DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL COMPARATIVE STUDIES ON THE
PRODUCTIVITY OF PELAGIC FISH STOCKS.
e.g. Jacobson et al. 2000. Surplus production, variability and
climate change in the great sardine and anchovy fisheries. Can. J.
Fish. Aquat. Sci. 58: 1891-1903. Funding: SCOR and GLOBEC.
-PROMOTE USE OF ENVIRONMENTAL/ CLIMATE DATA IN FISH
MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES
1.5
Catches
ISPR
15
1.0
10
5
0.5
0
0.0
Japanese sardine
B
1960
1970
1980
1990
ISPR (y-1)
Biomass/ catches (M t)
e.g. Study group on “Use on environmental indices in the
management of pelagic fish populations”. South Africa, December
2001; Paris, December 2002 (GLOBEC Spec. Contr. 5 and 6).
Funding: IOC
Biomass
Theme 3: Reproductive
Habitat Dynamics
Lead: D. Checkley (USA) and C. Roy
(France)
-DEVELOPMENT OF COMMON TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE STUDY OF
SPAWNING HABITATS
e.g. “Use of the CUFES for mapping spawning habitats of
pelagic fish”. San Sebastian, Spain, February 2000 (GLOBEC
Report 14). Funding: participants and SCOR
- PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES LINKING CLIMATE CHANGE
WITH SPAWNING HABITAT CHANGES, AND DEVELOP MECHANISMS
TO TRANSLATE THESE CHANGES INTO MANAGEMENT ACTIONS
e.g. “Small pelagic fish spawning habitat dynamics and the
daily egg production method” and “Characterizing and
Comparing the Spawning Habitats of Small Pelagic Fish”.
Concepcion, Chile. Funding: Local/ IRD/ BENEFIT/ SCOR/
participants.
Theme 4: Economic Implications of Climate Change.
Lead: Sam Herrick/ Dale Squires (USA)
-DEVELOP SCENARIO ANALYSES TO ADDRESS THE SOCIOECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN PELAGIC FISH
PRODUCTION
e.g. “Workshop on the economics of small pelagics and
climate change, Porstmouth, UK. September 2004. Funding:
NOAA, SCOR, GLOBEC
GLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee
REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
RESEARCH FOCI
• Retrospective
Analysis Working
Group
• Process Studies
WG
GLOBEC
International
Project
Office
• PICES-GLOBEC Climate
Change and Carrying
Capacity
•ICES-GLOBEC Cod and
Climate Change
•Southern Ocean GLOBEC
• Prediction and
Modelling WG
•Small Pelagic fish And
Climate Change (SPACC)
• Feedback from
Ecosystem Changes
WG
In preparation:
National /
Multinational
Activities
- Large Pelagics
- Sub-Arctic Ecosystems
GLOBEC Focus 4
Feedbacks from Changes in Marine
Ecosystem Structure
“To co-operate with other ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial and social
global change research programmes to estimate feedbacks from
changes in marine ecosystem structure to the global earth system”
GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3
Social Impacts of Changes in Marine
Ecosystems
Goals:
1)
To understand the interactions between marine coastal
communities and global changes in marine ecosystems;
2)
To understand the capacity of these communities to adjust to
these changes;
3)
To understand the consequences of these adjustments for marine
ecosystems.
Interactions of Environmental and Societal Changes
Disaster
Community Coping
Capacity
Marine
Ecosystem
Change
Current situation
Coping Capacity Decreasing
Resilience
Marine Ecosystem
Changes Increasing
Coping Capacity
Vulnerability
Disaster
Marine Ecosystem Change
Situation resulting from global changes
Modified from M. Brklacich, 2002. Pers. Comm.
Change in Marine Ecosystems
•
•
•
•
•
•
Climate variability
Internal ecosystem dynamics
Fishing
Habitat degradation
Pollution
Exotic species, new diseases
Change in Fishing Communities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Environmental change
Demographic Change
Technological innovations
Law and property relations
Policy Change
Relations of production/reproduction,
Gender and ethnic relations
Shifting values
These interactions involve issues of:
1. Scale (of interaction, of adaptation, drivers vs responses…)
2. Values (of ecosystem state/ fisheries)
3. Knowledge (science versus management versus Local)
CLIMATE CHANGE + OVERFISHING
collapse of Atlantic cod
stocks in Newfoundland and
Labrador, Canada
Consequences of changes:
-
Severe social disruption (fishery closures, plant closures,
unemployment, reduced incomes, employment volatility,
outmigration, shifts in property relations and power…)
Policy response (ADAPTATION) :
- Fishing Moratorium on cod
- Downsize fleet
- Income replacement measures
(incl. new quotas for alternative spp)
-
Thus contributing to further
marine
Some Fishers Resilience
(capacity to absorb change)
ecosystem change.
Social response (ADAPTATION):
Low Ecosystem Resilience
-
Fishing effort expands spatially and
ecologically
-
Effort intensifies on traditional grounds
-
Effort shifts across species, down trophic
levels