Transcript The Challenge of climate science

INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
A Global Challenge
Antonio Navarra
INGV
Centro EuroMediterraneo
per i cambiamenti climatici
The Climate System
Atmosphere
Precipitation
Evaporation
Sea Ice
Biosphere
Oceans
Run-off
Soil Moisture
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
A scientific consideration of climate (I)
Crucial experiments like the famous experiment of
Michelson e Morley are not possible in climate science
How is it possible a
scientific investigation of
climate ?
A scientific consideration of climate (II)
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
We can male experiments if we represent the climate
system via a set of mathematical relations: the equation
of climate.
The equation of climate are very difficult, but they can
be solved by numerical methods.
We can then treat very complex mathematical equations,
paying the price of a enormous number of elementary
operations.
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
The next generation of
numerical models will be like
new, more powerful, telescopes
or particle accelerators and they
will allow us to look further into
the working of the Earth climate
more accurately, extensively and
reliably.
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Grids for Earth
Sort of crowded
at the pole
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
T42 IPCC standard resolution (~ 300Km)
T106
INGV-IPCC run resolution
(~ 120Km)
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
T106
INGV-IPCC run
resolution (~ 120Km)
Next INGV-CMCC model resolution (~ 60Km)
Scenarios
N2O
CO2
CH4
Surface Temperature Differences JAS
(2061-2090 minus 1961-1990)
Precipitation Differences JAS
(2061-2090 minus 1961-1990)
Projected sea level change is not globally uniform
Sea level change due to ocean density and circulation change during 21st
century (2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999) under A1B, average of 16 AOGCMs,
shown relative to global mean. Spatial variation is about 25% of global mean.
The Structure of the CMCC
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Numerical Methods
Agricultural Impacts:
Forests
Climate Research
Software Developme
Numerical
Simulations
Impacts:
Energy and Econom
Agricultural Impacts:
Crops
Impacts:
Mediterranean Sea
Impacts:
The Coastal Zone
Impacts:
Health
CIRCE
Climate Change and Impact ResearCh:
the Mediterranean Environment
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
An FP6 Project of the European Union
Chair: Antonio Navarra and Laurence Tubiana
The project will investigate how global and Mediterranean climates
interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the
radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol,
the modifications in the water cycle.
The economic and social consequences of climate change shall be
evaluated by analyzing direct impacts on migration, tourism and
energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic
system. CIRCE will moreover investigate the consequences on
agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality.
The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their
impacts will be assessed.
The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be
presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the
Mediterranean area.
CIRCE Strategy
Impacts
Climate
Dynamics
Policy
Social
Dynamics
Case
Studies
What can we do ?
Mitigation:
remove the causes of climate change,
i.e. emissions
Adaptation:
prepare for the coming climate change
Mitigazione e Adattamento,
Entrambi necessari,
Entrambi limitati
Mucche olandesi, dopo l’adattamento
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Elements for Post-Kyoto Regime
Effective – Capable of realizing significant
emission reduction
Empowering – Allowing emerging countries to
continue their development path
Fair – Recognizing the historical
responsibility of mature economies
Shared – A large societal consensus is needed
to implement effectively the policies
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Coalition Building
General Social Survey USA (I)
• 86% - Satisfied of their job
• 76% - Satisfied of their income
• 62% - Expect their position to improve
within the next three years
• 65% - Over all satisfied of their lives
General Social Survey USA (II)
• 25% - Think the country is not “on the right
track”
• 80% - Think the Congress has
accomplished nothing
• 60% - Expect next generation will be worst
off
”Happiness Gap”
US citizens ( probably typical of other countries)
are happy with their lives, but they feel the threat
of outside forces beyond their control (climate
change, terrorism, credit crisis) and they are
doubt of the government capability to handle
them effectively
There is a private-public
happiness gap
Policy ?
In this situation the demand on policymakers is to
devise a policy to tackle with determination
these large problems, but without touching the
sphere of private satisfaction of the individual.
Is it possible to define a policy addressing
these demands ?
INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Italy
Optimists
But Concerned