Transcript Clean Green Energy: The 21st Century Holy Grail

Averting a Climate Catastrophe:
Solutions for Home, Work, Community and Nation
John Kaye
Ph: 0407 195 455
Email: [email protected]
April 2006
(v6a)
Presentation Outline 1
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Brief Introduction: The Bad News
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Energy: The Good News
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What is Greenhouse?
Australia: the climate bandit
Climate consequences
Sources of greenhouse pollution
The non-solutions: clean coal and nuclear
Renewable energy solutions
Energy efficiency solutions
Saving the planet, generating jobs, becoming a world leader
in climate solutions
Presentation Outline 2
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Transport: More Good News
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The Politics of Greenhouse
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Climate friendly solutions
why the political process not responding
making the politicians take notice
Carbon dioxide concentrations
increased by 30% from 1000 AD to 2004 AD
4
Data Source: World Watch Institute
The Greenhouse Effect
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Source: Saskatchewan Interactive
Global temperature 1861-2004
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http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/obsdata/globaltemperature.html
International Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC)
(web site: www.ipcc.ch)
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Set up by
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Leading climate scientists
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cautious and rigorous
Working Group 1: Scientific basis of climate change
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World Meteorological Organisation &
United Nations Environment Programme
635 scientists
4,621 refereed scientific papers
"There is new and stronger evidence that most
of the warming observed over the last 50 years
is attributable to human activities."
temperature anomalies (oC)
Climate change models
predict observations
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modelling with actual increases in
greenhouse gas concentrations
Stott et al, Science
2000
But not without increased
greenhouse gas concentrations
modelling without actual increases in
greenhouse gas concentrations
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Stott et al, Science
2000
Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature; 1000 to 2100
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From: IPCC – 3rd Assessment Report 2001
Impacts of unchecked
climate change
(IPCC data: www.ipcc.ch/pub/wg2SPMfinal.pdf)
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Temperature rise
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Sustained changes to rainfall patterns
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cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes, floods, droughts
Sea level rise
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droughts, floods & continental "summer drying"
Increased frequency & severity of extreme climate events
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extreme heat events
ice melting (permafrost and caps)  release of CO2 & methane
IPCC: 0.88 m by 2100 or worse (currently increase = 2 mm/year)
UK Met Office (Jan 2006): ice melt  7 m rise in long term
Changed wind patterns
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spread of disease-carrying insects
Consequences of unchecked
climate change
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Human:
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Natural ecosystems
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loss of habitat and species
End of Permian Period (271 m years ago)
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widespread drought & famine
insect borne diseases
floods and inundation of populated areas
increased war and conflict
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rapid temperature rise of 60 C
90% of life on planet disappeared
Climate refugees
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1.5 m sea level rise
means 17 million
homeless in Ganges
River delta
Calcutta is 3 m above
sea level
Dhaka is 5 m above
sea level
IPCC 2001 Adapted from Milliman et al. (1989).
Aust
r
Luxe alia
mbo
urg
Cana
da
US A
Irela
nd
Neth
erlan
ds
Belg
ium
Denm
ark
New
Zeal
and
Czec
h Re
p.
Finla
nd
Esto
nia
Germ
any
Gree
ce
UK
EU
Japa
n
Icela
nd
Pola
nd
Slov
akia
t CO2-e per person
Per Capita Emissions
Australia leads the way!
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25
20
15
10
5
0
Data Source: The Australia Institute – Sept 2001
Australia: Climate Bandit
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www.joelertola.com/ grfx/chrt_greenhouse.html
Australian Coal Exports
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approximately 730 million tonnes CO2 each year
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37 tonnes per person each year
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231 million tonnes of coal exported in 2004/05
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worth $18.3 billion (to whom?)
77% of total Australian coal production
Australia = largest exporter in the world
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+ 27 tonnes in Australia = 64 tonnes per person each year
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about 30% of world trade
Newcastle = world's largest coal export port
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(about 10% of world trade)
Discussion Questions:
Climate Change
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Can we afford to ignore the evidence?
Effects of changing temperature on
environment?
Impacts on low income countries?
What are the implications of global dimming?
Climate change: fact or theory?
What changes have you observed locally?
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Are these necessarily caused by climate change?
million tonnes CO2 equiv
Trends in Australia's Emissions
300
In 2003:
250
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550 million tonnes CO2 equiv.
200
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Plus approx. 730 million tonnes
CO2 in export coal
150
100
1990
50
2003
0
stationary agriculture transport
land
industry
energy
clearing & direct use
forestry
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Data Source: Australian Greenhouse Office
fugitive
waste
Stationary Energy
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268 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (Australia - 2003)
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Fastest growing greenhouse source
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37.2% increase from 1990 to 2003
Air-conditioning, lower efficiency houses (lighting, heating),
commerce and industry
NSW electricity industry dominated by coal
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About 70% electricity generation
About 30% gas and other fuels
90% of energy generation is coal burning
Rest hydro, small amount of gas
The big problem: Coal fired generators
Mt Piper
Power Station
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Lithgow, NSW
18,000 jobs lost in Australia’s coal
industry from mid 1980’s to 2002
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From: Diesendorf 2004
Non-solution 1: Geosequestration
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Problems with Geosequestration
(Carbon capture and storage)
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Will it work?
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Unproven technology
Cost
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Estimates vary:
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Limited suitable storage sites close to sources
Long term risk
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Release due to geological activity
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A$10/tonne CO2 (Batterham)
A$140/tonne CO2 (US DoE)
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rupture or leakage
Passes problem to next generation
Non-solution 2: “Clean” Coal
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Non-solution 3: Nuclear Energy
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The Nuclear
Fuel Cycle
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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power
Nuclear Power Issues
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Waste storage
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Plutonium half life = 24,000 years (about 700 generations)
Accidents
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Three Mile Island; Chernobyl
Sellafield Nuclear Facility (UK) 2005
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Leak undetected for 9 months
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Containment can only be entered by robots
Weapons & Terrorism
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Plutonium = inevitable by-product of nuclear power
Mohamed ElBaredei, IAEA:
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20 tonnes of uranium & plutonium dissolved in nitric acid
“… the emergence of a nuclear black market, the determined efforts
by more countries to acquire technology to produce the fissile
material usable in nuclear weapons, and the clear desire of terrorists
to acquire weapons of mass destruction”
Nuclear Power Issues II
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Costs:
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Heavily subsidised
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Greenhouse gas emissions
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Mining and processing (milling) low grade ore
Resource scarcity
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“In 1998, cumulative subsides to nuclear power had an
equivalent cost of [US]$1,411 per household.” (REPP, 2000)
If all world’s electricity demand supplied by
nuclear, would exhaust high grade ore in 4 years
(Smith & van Leeuwin)
The good news:
There are solutions and they work!
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Australia does not need
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"Clean Energy Future for Australia"
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(wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfuture/)
Halve emissions by 2040 with existing technologies
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Coal (clean or otherwise)
Geosequestration
Nuclear
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Wind (20%)
Bio-electricity (26%)
Natural gas (17%)
Solar heat
Energy efficiency
Solution 1: Wind
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Albany WA: 12 x 1.8 MW units = 75% of Albany’s electricity needs
(image source: Western Power)
Wind & jobs
Wind Energy Industry
in Denmark
Coal in Australia
Jobs change from
mid 1980s to 2002
+ 16,000 new jobs
- 18,000 jobs lost
• wind (with 80% Aus content) creates:
4 x number of jobs as coal
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for each unit of energy generated
Data Source: Diesendorf 2004
Wind generation and the economy
1500 MW of
coal
(costs $2 bn)
$2 bn invest in
wind 80% Aus.
content
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Data Source: Diesendorf 2004
$  overseas
$ spent in
Australia
$1.5 bn
$0.5 bn
$0.4 bn
$1.6 bn
Wind Issues
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Some (potentially) non-issues:
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Noise
Bird strike
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Fluctuations in availability
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Scenic impacts
Wilderness & native vegetation impacts (esp. access roads)
Siting and development assessment process
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Limited to about 20% of electricity generation in Aus.
Some real issues
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Care with siting
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Community involvement not “community consultation”
Needs to ensure that all affected parties share in benefits
Needs to respect local and environmental values
Solution 2: Bio-electricity
Sunshine Coast, Qld:
• Ergon Energy
• Suncoast Gold Macadamias
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Bio-electricity: “Closed” Carbon Cycle
Carbon released
from combustion
is
carbon recently
taken from
atmosphere
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Issues with bio-electricity
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Local environmental pollution
Land degradation
Water scarcity
Native forestry wastes
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A distraction from the main game
Will cause more forests to be destroyed
Not needed:
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Australia can generate 26% of its electricity from bioelectricity by 2040 without native forest residues
Solution 3: Solar Heating
(especially hot water)
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Direct solar: e.g. solar water heater
Solar Water Heaters
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hot water = 27% of domestic energy use
about 5% of all water heater installations are solar
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about 36,000 each year
costs $800 - $2,100 more than conventional electric
system:
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pays for itself in 5 - 10 years
plus subsidies from Federal Gvt (RECs):
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other systems:
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$500 to $1000 or more depending on size
electric heat pump
high efficiency gas
Jobs in Solar Installation
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Solution 4: Energy efficiency
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Energy Efficiency: 9,000 new jobs
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Ministerial Council on Energy
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12 years benefits using available technology:
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20% to 30% reduction in energy consumption possible
Employment increase by around 9,000 (+0.1%)
GDP $1.8 billion higher (+0.2%)
9% reduction in stationary energy consumption
(-213 PJ)
9% reduction in greenhouse emissions (-32MT)
Impact on GDP
(Using available technology)
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Data Source: Australian Ministerial Council on Energy
Energy Savings by Sector
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Data Source: Australian Ministerial Council on Energy
Greenhouse Sources in the Home
Water heating
Other Appliances
Refrigeration
Heating & cooling
Lighting
Standby
Cooking
0%
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5%
Source: www.greenhouse.gov.au/ yourhome/technical/fs40.htm
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Your Home
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Water heating
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Space heating & cooling
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Efficiency (5 star rating)
Lighting
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Window shading
Insulation
Refrigeration, washing machine, appliances
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Choice of solar, high efficiency instantaneous
Low flow shower heads
High efficiency lights
House design for solar capture and energy
performance
Discussion Starters: Stationary Energy
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Nuclear energy: would we ever see its benefits
outweighing its dangers?
Wind energy: sacrificing scenic values for the
climate?
Making the polluters pay: higher prices but lower bills
for all?
What’s gone wrong: Why wont my rooftop solar
panel compete with Mt Piper power station?
Transport and Greenhouse Gases
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One of fastest growing sources of greenhouse
pollution
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1990 to 2003 increased by 28.8%
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79.8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (2003)
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15% of all of Australia’s greenhouse emissions
Transport Emissions – Trends
Emissions (million T CO2 equiv)
Australia: 1990 to 2003
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40
1990
2003
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20
10
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Cars
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(data source: Australian Greenhouse Office)
Trucks &
Buses
Light Comm
Civil
Aviation
Rail
other
Transport greenhouse emissions
by mode
(data source: Australian Greenhouse Office)
0
Bike/Walking
0.02
Rail
0.03
Bus
0.06
New 1.8 litre car, 4 people
0.08
Average car, 4 people
0.23
New 1.8 litre car,driver only
0.33
Average car, driver only
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
kg per person per km
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Data source: www.greenhouse.gov.au/gwci/transport.html
0.3
0.35
Hybrid Vehicles
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Private Vehicles = Traffic Congestion
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Biofuels
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Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles
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Reinventing our rail system
Passenger public transport
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Freight on rails
Jobs in rail transport
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60% fewer jobs than 25 years ago.
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Need for public re-investment
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capital infrastructure
the workforce
RTBU: immediate need for 1,500 trainees
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75% of jobs losses in regional and rural Australia.
average age of rail workforce is 52 years.
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mainly young people
many in regional areas.
Bicycles and Light Rail
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Bicycle use
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Workshops
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Brainstorming the solutions
– at home
– at work
– in the community
– nationally
Appoint a facilitator, a scribe and a reporter
5 minute report back on key findings
What needs to be done?
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Ending the fossil fuel age:
– no new coal power
– no new coal mines
– no new motorways
– reduce dependence on export coal
Commit to 50% reduction by 2040
Carbon taxes (polluters pay)
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alternative: cap emissions and trade permits
assistance to low income households
What needs to be done? (2)
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Minimum energy efficiency standards
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Invest in renewable energy
End subsidies to coal & energy intensive
uses
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Industry, commercial and residential
Just transitions to sustainable jobs
How to make the transition and reap
the benefits?
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Industry policy (vs. globalisation & market ideology)
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Develop industries that solve climate problems
Make deliberate decisions
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High volume + low value added
 High value added + low volume
Focus on innovation & developing export industries
Workforce
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Unionised workforce, collectively bargaining
Public education opportunities
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locating manufacturing in areas with high unemployment
TAFE
USA
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Making the transition:
the politics of creating a future
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Coalition: bad
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“Clean Coal”: geosequestration
Undermined carbon taxes & carbon trading
MRET to expire, no teeth
Refused to sign Kyoto
Promoting “Asia Pacific Partnership” to destabilise
next round of Kyoto
Making the transition:
the politics of creating a future (2)
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ALP: a little better
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BUT:
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Sign Kyoto
Committed to reductions in the long term
Nice words about renewable energy
Debate over uranium mining and energy
Still addicted to "clean" coal
Asia Pacific Partnership for Clean
Development and Climate (AP6)
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India, China, Japan, South Korea, USA, Australia
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Negotiated in secret
Emphasis on “clean coal” solutions
No reduction targets
ABARE Study: emissions will double by 2030
Designed to:
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Largest coal based economies
Undermine post-Kyoto negotiations
Take pressure off governments & fossil fuel industries
NSW State Gvt:
talking the talk but can they walk?
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Recognition of greenhouse problem but …
New coal fired electricity
Air-conditioning load growing
– Cross-subsidy:
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each air-con household receives $70 a year subsidy
from non-air-con households
(Sydney – EnergyAustralia 2005)
Energy efficiency of new housing stock
Developer donations
NSW State Gvt:
talking the talk but can they walk? (2)
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More km of Sydney motorway than all other gvts
– Failure to get trains operating
– Closure of branch lines
Desalination plant
– 1% increase in stationary energy
(500 ML/day plant) (Australia Inst. data)
The political system captured by
entrenched interests
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“Old” energy intensive industries:coal, oil, minerals
Campaign donations
– $1.5 m from resources & energy sector in 1999-2003
– Developers
Revolving door
– Warwick Parer (Minister for Energy & Resources, 1996-1998)
– "Greenhouse Mafia":
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Australian Industry Greenhouse Network members writing &
accessing cabinet submissions
(4 Corners 13/2/06)
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The political system is driven by
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Fear of backlash
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Ideology of deregulation & privatisation
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e.g. blackouts, water shortages
Opposed to meaningful targets
Opposed to making polluters pay & pricing environmental
damage
Short electoral cycle
vs medium time scale impacts
The political system is failing!
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How to get there:
Making the political system work
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Community lead change to political process:
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requires community transformation
Need to turn every household into greenhouse campaigner
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The Greens
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Raising the bar on the debate
Climate Action Working Group
2007 state and federal elections
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Demand clean energy future
Demand better public transport
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Making positive solutions for greenhouse key issue
Social, economic and ecological benefits