Transcript California's Zero Emission Vehicle Program: A Family of

Society Of American Military
Engineers
Climate Change and AB 32:
The California Global Warming
Solutions Act of 2006
California Air Resources Board
Richard Varenchik
April 23, 2007
1
Global Temperatures Since 1850
2
Hansen et al., “Earth’s energy imbalance”, Science (2005) and “Global temperature change”, PNAS (2006)
12 Hottest Years on Record
Occurred in Past 16 Years
1998 2002 2003 2004 2001
1997 1995 1990 1991 1999
2005 2006
First Six Months of 2006 Warmest on Record
No U.S. State was Cooler Than Average
Five States Had Record Heat:
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri
Oceans Warming Too—Absorbing Heat From Earth’s Surface
900 Climate Journal Articles Agree:
Human GHGs Impact Climate
3
Industrial Era Has Changed The
Atmosphere
• Carbon dioxide,
methane, nitrous
oxide, and other
pollutants cause global
warming
• IPCC concludes
increase in these gases
is a result of human
activities
Source:IPCC Report: Summary for Policy
Makers,
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific
Basis
4
California Climate Change:
Projections For Next 100 Years
With aggressive control policies:
• – Average temperature increase 4 to 6 F
• – Sea level rise 8 to 11 inches
• – Sierra snowpack decreased 29 to 72 percent
With business as usual:
• – Average temperature increase 7 to 10 F
• – Sea level rise 11 to 16 inches
• – Sierra snowpack reduced 73 to 89 percent
5
California’s Man-Made
GHG Emissions 2002 (CO2-equivalent)
Others
8.4%
Electric Power
19.6%
Transportation
41.2%
Total statewide inventory
Industrial
22.8%
~ 500 MMTCO2E
Agriculture & Forestry
8.0%
Source: March 2006 CAT Report, adapted from CEC, 2005
6
Control Implementation Timeline
(Through Scoping Plan Approval)
2007
2008
2009
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2020 Limit
X Limit Approved
Mandatory
Reporting
X Regs Adopted
Discrete Early
Actions
X
List Published
X
Regs Adopted
Regs
Enforceable
X
Voluntary Action
Implementation
Scoping Plan
X
Plan Approved
7
Emission Reduction Measures
•
•
•
•
Direct reduction measures
Market-based measures
Incentives to reduce emissions
Voluntary programs
8
Criteria for Rulemaking
Design regulations to be equitable, minimize
cost, encourage early action
No disproportionate impact on low-income
communities
Credit for early voluntary reductions
Complement criteria pollutant strategies
Open process – public involvement through
workshops, working groups, public meeting.
9
Potential ARB Early Actions
•Early reductions prior to Scoping Plan
•Publish list by June 30, 2007
•Regulations enforceable January 1, 2010
–
–
–
–
Low Carbon Fuels
Auto Refrigerants (DIY cans)
Landfill Methane gas control
More from ARB & other agencies
•Web Page:
http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/030507
10
symp/030507agenda.htm
Statewide GHG Limit—
AB 32 Statutory Directives
• Determine 1990 GHG emissions level
and approve an equivalent limit for 2020
• Evaluate best scientific, technological
and economic information
• Adopt Limit by Dec. 31, 2007
• Limit remains in effect unless amended
or repealed
11
REPORTING
• Working on Reporting Regulation
• Public Workshops in 2007
– Need Input From All Interested Groups
•
•
•
•
Bring to Board by December 2007
Effective in 2008; First Reporting 2009
Use CA Climate Action Registry Tools
Visit the New Web Page
– http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccei/ccei.htm
12
Mandatory Reporting—
Milestones
• Early 2007
– Identify significant sources, who will be required
to report and when
– Review existing protocols
– Workshops and workgroups to develop
regulation and supporting tools
• Spring/summer 2007
– Review and prepare protocols
– Ongoing workgroups, workshops
13
Mandatory Reporting—
Milestones
• October 22, 2007
– Release staff report
• December 6, 2007
– Board hearing
• Reporting begins
– TBD
14
SOURCES THAT MAY BE INCLUDED
FOR MANDATORY REPORTING
•Oil and gas production/distribution
•Oil refineries
•Cement manufacturers
•Industrial/commercial combustion
•Landfills
•Electric power generators/utilities
•Other sources may be considered
•Looking at CEQA impacts
15
Supreme Court’s April 2 Decision
In Massachusetts V. EPA
• Ruled EPA can regulate greenhouse gases
• Ruling does not force EPA to regulate
• However, any refusal should be based on
science & “reasoned justification”
• CA asks Fresno court to set conference for
moving ahead with AB 1493
• Still awaiting EPA waiver on AB 1493
• Federal government can still do national
GHG rules
16
AB 1493 – Passenger Car Regulations
AB 1493 Adopted by Ca. Legislature in 2002
Directs ARB to Pass Automobile GHG Reduction Rule
Rule Passed By ARB in September 2004
Provides largest GHG reduction of any measure
–
–
–
–
Cut auto GHGs 30% by 2016 model year
Adopted or considered by 11 states
Currently under court challenge
Have Just Asked Judge to set Conference for Moving Ahead
If overturned, ARB to
achieve equivalent or
greater reductions through
other mobile source
regulations
17
17
VERMONT AUTO CASE
(Son of AB 1493)
• At Least 11 states have Adopted or are
Considering ARB’s 1493 Regulation
• Automakers Sued in Ca., Rhode Island and
Vermont to block the Regulation
• Vermont Case Currently in Trial
• Vermont Outcome Applies Only to Vermont
• California Case may go to Trial this Summer
• Ca. Case Impacts all other states
18
Local Government Activities
• Local governments showing climate leadership
• ARB liaison James Goldstene working to build
relationships
• Climate Action Team subgroup established to
better define state/local interaction
– Support for local activities
– Guidance on possible reduction strategies
– Quantification/accounting of reductions
19
Contacts and More Information
• ARB Climate Change Web Site
– http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm
– Stay informed - sign up for the list serve
• California Climate Change Portal
– http://climatechange.ca.gov/
• Chuck Shulock (916) 322-6964 [email protected]
• Richard Varenchik (626) 575-6730
[email protected]
• James Goldstene (916) 445-8449
[email protected] (Business & local govt Issues)20
• ARB’s Help Line: 800 242-4450