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CEPES
Center for Environmental Policy,
Economics and Science
Potential Socio-Economic
Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate
Change
in the Great Lakes Region
by
George M. Albercook
Credit where Credit is due
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The EPA for funding this research
J. D. Lindeberg
David Stead
Peter Sousounis
Jeanne Bisanz
Cast of thousands
History of Change
• Regional Climate Change has already happened!
• It effected ALL aspects of human, plant and
animal life!
• There is NO disagreement about its occurrence!
• It made much of the region uninhabitable!
History of Change
• Regional Climate Change has already happened!
• It effected ALL aspects of human, plant and
animal life!
• There is NO disagreement about its occurrence!
• It made much of the region uninhabitable!
• Last Ice age
Lake Levels
• The two models show different results
• Lake Michigan-Huron in 2030
• CGCM1
Drop by 2 ft. 4 in.
• HadCM2
Up by 0 ft. 2in.
• Lake Michigan-Huron in 2090
• CGCM1
Drop by 4 ft. 6 in.
• HadCM2
Up by 0 ft. 2in.
Lake Recreation
• Michigan has more registered boaters than any other
state.
• The 8 state region accounts for more than 1/3 of all
registered boats in the U.S.
• Marina operators, marine business suppliers
manufacturers and hundreds of thousands of boaters
and anglers contribute to the regional economy.
• > $ 3 billion in retail marine equipment sales alone.
That is more than 1/3 of the trip related expenditures
for the entire nation!
Estimated Loss to Michigan Commercial
& Public Great Lakes Marinas
1999 Level s
$11,851,800
6" Bel ow
$30,154,000
$80,000,000
12" Below
$41,877,000
18" Below
$53,600,000
24" Below
$65,323,000
$65,323,000
$70,000,000
$60,000,000
$53,600,000
$50,000,000
$41,877,000
$40,000,000
$30,000,000
$30,154,000
$20,000,000
$10,000,000
$11,851,800
$0
1999 Levels
6" Below
12" Below
18" Below
24" Below
Based on data in “The Impacts of Low Water on Michigan Great Lakes Marinas”
Additional Costs
• 200+ private marinas not accounted for in
these numbers.
• Impacts on the inland marinas, often more
catastrophic.
• Impacts on marinas in the other Great Lakes
states.
Percentage of Public & Commercial
Marinas Dredged Due to Low Water
1999 Level s
6" Bel ow
22%
37%
12" Below
18" Below
43%
70%
24" Below
49%
55%
60%
55%
50%
49%
43%
40%
37%
30%
20%
22%
10%
0%
1999
Levels
6" Below
12" Below
18" Below
24" Below
Based on data in “The Impacts of Low Water on Michigan Great Lakes Marinas”
Lake Shipping Activities
• The Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway is the longest
deep draft waterway in the world!
• A series of 19 locks and 6 canals lift 730 ft. long vessels
almost 600 ft above sea level.
• The system includes 15 major ports that ship products
around the world.
• Since it opened in 1959 the seaway has carried more
than two billion tons of cargo and has accounted for
$300 billion in trade.
Less Draft = Less Profit
• For each inch of Draft lost a 1000 ft Freighter must
offload 270 tons of cargo. From the Canadian model
that corresponds to loses of 7,560 tons or 12.6% by
2030!
• By 2090 it would be 14,600 tons or 24.3%!
• Few businesses can suffer reductions in efficiency of
that magnitude and survive for long.
• In the very cost competitive bulk commodities
transport industry changes like these would mean the
end of shipping in the Great Lakes as we know it.
Alternative Modes
• Rail and Truck compete with water.
• They are less fuel efficient
• 1 Ton of cargo can travel 607 miles on the
Great Lakes and consume only 1 gallon of fuel
• That same ton of cargo can only travel 204
miles by rail and only 60 miles by truck.
• There is a similar effect on air emissions.
Source “Environmental Impacts of Modal Shift”
Coal from Superior, Wisconsin
to Lake St. Clair, Michigan
16,800,000 net tons
Superior,
Wisconsin
Marine: 676 miles, 1000 foot
diesel-powered self-unloader.
66,150 tons cargo,
254 round trips
Rail: 807 miles Class II carrier,
1700 trains each with
three locomotives,
and 90 110-ton cars
Coal from Superior, Wisconsin
to Lake St. Clair, Michigan
Mar ine fuel
Rai l fuel
15.5
31.2
31.2
4,932
8,992
8,992
10,000
30
8,000
25
20
Tons
Million US Gallons
35
Mar ine air emi ssions
Rai l air emissi ons
15.5
15
10
6,000
4,932
4,000
2,000
5
0
0
Marine fuel
Rail fuel
Marine air
emissions
Rail air
emissions
If the Sault Locks Close
• Assume that 1/2 of the >87 million tons of
cargo shifted to rail and 1/2 to truck
• 4350 trains each with three Locomotives &
100 100-ton cars would be required
• 1.9 million truck would be required
• Currently there are only 1.9 million trucks
operating in the U.S.
Another Alternative:
Dredging
• In 1962-1964 the lakes dropped significantly and
dredging activity increased dramatically. Prior to 1963
dredging activity averaged 372,000 cubic yards/year
After 1963 it jumped to 4,119,000!
• This tenfold increase in dredging is likely to be
exceeded in the CGCM1 scenario. With the increase in
dredging costs since the 1960’s the annual cost to
maintain federal harbors and channels could be $75 $125 million annually
• Current cost is ~ $6 million.
Source ”The Great Lakes Regional Assessment Report”
Toxins
• Dredging of many channels and harbors
results in the release of PCB’s, dioxins and
heavy metals - all of which were buried in
waterways during previous years’
unregulated industrial activity
• By 2006 only 2 of the current CDFs will
have any room for contaminated material
Chicago Diversion
• In 1940 the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal was
created by diverting Lake Michigan water to the
Mississippi River.
• Water level in the canal is 2ft. 6 in. below Lake
Michigan.
• Lake level drops like those derived from the Canadian
model would disable the Chicago Diversion.
• Reversing the diversion is serious health risk
• Dredging it is very costly. It is 30 miles long and
much of it is rock!!