Transcript SAf Science Conference

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Climate Change:
A Perspective from the USA
National Climate Conference, BASIC Side Event
Gallagher Estate, Johannesburg, South Africa
October, 2005
Jonathan Pershing
Climate, Energy and Pollution Program
World Resources Institute
http://www.wri.org
WRI
US Climate Related Indicators
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The US contributes the largest
share of global GHG emissions…
Rest of the World
US
(20%)
Global GHG Emissions
Source: WRI/CAIT, 2000 Data
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Emissions Mix
100
% Share of Fuel Mix
Renewables
Hydro
75
Nuclear
50
Gas
Oil
25
Coal
0
United
States
Source: WRI/CAIT
Source: IEA Statistics
WRI
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Change over 20th Century:
Annual Mean Temperature
ºF
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Million tons CO2 (from energy)
US Projected Emissions
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000
2010
2025
According to USDOE, emissions will grow about
1.4%/year, or 42% over the next 25 years
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U.S. Climate Change Policies
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Bush Administration
Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (1)
• Goal: to reduce US GHG intensity by 18% by 2012
– Equivalent to ~4% reduction relative to BaU
– Total emissions increase by 31% over 1990 levels
– Further measures in 2012 if target not met
• Voluntary initiatives
– Improve voluntary registry (provide baseline to give “credits” for real
reduction; likely to require legislation)
– Climate VISION Partnership (12 sectors and BRT work with EPA,
DOE, DOT and USDA to reduce GHG emissions)
– Climate Leaders (EPA corporate partnership with individual
companies; 50 companies now participating)
• Fuel economy standards for light trucks (20.7mpg 
22.2mpg by 2007)
• Tax incentives for GHG reductions (RE, EE and
sequestration)
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Bush Administration
Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (2)
• Methane to Markets : Ministerial kickoff, November
2004
• US Climate Technology Program (CCTP)
– Strategic direction and organization for about $3bn in federal
spending for climate change-related technology research,
development, demonstration, and deployment
– Six complementary goals:
(1) reducing emissions from energy use and infrastructure;
(2) reducing emissions from energy supply;
(3) capturing and sequestering carbon dioxide;
(4) reducing emissions of other greenhouse gases;
(5) measuring and monitoring emissions; and
(6) bolstering the contributions of basic science to climate
change.
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Bush Administration
Climate/Energy Policy Initiatives (3)
• Nuclear:
– Fission: Generation IV: multilateral partnership for next generation
nuclear power
– Fusion: $5 Bn committed in 2003 for multi-year research program
• Hydrogen economy
– $1.7 Bn, 5-year initiative for hydrogen fuel and “Freedom Car”
• Carbon capture and storage
– $1 Bn, 10-year “Future-gen” demonstration project for zeroemissions coal-based power
– Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum
• Including data gathering, information exchange and joint projects
• 15 partner countries
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USG Roadmap for Climate Change Technology
Development and Deployment for the 21st Century
Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005
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US Climate Technology Budget
900
800
700
Other Agencies
200
600
$ Million
$ Million
250
US DOE
500
150
400
100
300
200
50
2004 (Actual)
AID
NSF
NASA
EPA
DOT
Interior
DOC-NIST
Fossil (incl
Seq)
Renewable
Nuclear
T&D
Conservation
0
0
USDA
100
2005 (Proposed)
Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005
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Proposed congressional policies
•
•
•
•
•
•
GHG reduction
GHG Reporting
Supporting
International
Negotiations
Energy Policy
Appropriations
Power Plants
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Transport
Hydrogen
Clean Coal
Carbon
Sequestration
Buildings
Waste recycling
Science/Research
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McCain-Lieberman Climate
Stewardship Act
• Summary:
– A bill establishing a market-driven system
of greenhouse gas tradeable allowances
– Cap: at 2000 levels by 2010
• Voting History:
– October 2003: 43-55
– June 2005: 38 - 60
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Sense of the Senate (Vote 54-43)
• Congress finds that—
(1) greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing
average temperatures to rise at a rate outside the range of natural
variability and are posing a substantial risk of rising sea-levels,
altered patterns of atmospheric and oceanic circulation, and
increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts;
(2) there is a growing scientific consensus that human activity is a
substantial cause of greenhouse gas accumulation in the
atmosphere; and
(3) mandatory steps will be required to slow or stop the growth of
greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.
• Sense of the Senate
Congress should enact a comprehensive and effective national
program of mandatory, market-based limits and incentives on
emissions of greenhouse gases that slow, stop, and reverse the
growth of such emissions at a rate and in a manner that
(1) will not significantly harm the United States economy; and
(2) will encourage comparable action by other nations that are major
trading partners and key contributors to global emissions.
-- US Senate: June 2005
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California Policies
• Transport
–Starting in 2003,10% light duty vehicles
to be zero emitting
–15% of buses with zero emissions by
2008
• Registry of GHGs (CCAR)
• RPS: 20% by 2017
• $62 million public research program
• Carbon adder ($48-25/ton – in draft)
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Others are experimenting too
• Goal: A regional cap-andtrade program initially
covering CO2 emissions
from power plants
– Stabilize emissions at
current levels through 2015
– Reduce by 10% by 2020
• Region statistics:
– 9 states represent 14% US
GHG emissions
– 3.2% of world GHG
emissions (Germany)
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Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Source: Pew Climate Center
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Climate Action Plans
Source: Pew Climate Center
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Renewable Energy Mandates
Source: Pew Climate Center
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U.S. Climate Change
Mitigation Potential
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US Renewable Resources
Source: U.S. Climate Change Technology Program Strategic Plan, Draft for Public Comment – September 2005
Geothermal
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Proposed LNG Terminals
Constructed
A. Everett, MA : 1.035 Bcfd (Tractebel – DOMAC)
B. Cove Point, MD : 1.0 Bcfd (Dominion – Cove Point LNG)
C. Elba Island, GA : 0.68 Bcfd (El Paso – Southern LNG)
D. Lake Charles, LA : 1.0 Bcfd (Southern Union – Trunkline LNG)
Approved by FERC
1. Lake Charles, LA: 1.1 Bcfd (Southern Union – Trunkline LNG)
2. Hackberry, LA : 1.5 Bcfd, (Sempra Energy)
3. Bahamas : 0.84 Bcfd, (AES Ocean Express)*
4. Bahamas : 0.83 Bcfd, (Calypso Tractebel)*
5. Freeport, TX : 1.5 Bcfd, (Cheniere/Freeport LNG Dev.)
6. Sabine, LA : 2.6 Bcfd (Cheniere LNG)
7. Elba Island, GA: 0.54 Bcfd (El Paso – Southern LNG)
Approved by MARAD/Coast Guard
8. Port Pelican: 1.6 Bcfd, (Chevron Texaco)
9. Gulf of Mexico: 0.5 Bcfd, (El Paso Energy Bridge GOM, LLC)
Proposed to FERC
10. Fall River, MA : 0.8 Bcfd, (Weaver's Cove Energy/Hess LNG)
11. Long Beach, CA : 0.7 Bcfd, (Mitsubishi/ConocoPhillips – Sound Energy Solutions)
12. Corpus Christi, TX : 2.6 Bcfd, (Cheniere LNG)
13. Corpus Christi, TX : 1.0 Bcfd (Vista Del Sol - ExxonMobil)
14. Sabine, TX : 1.0 Bcfd (Golden Pass - ExxonMobil)
15. Logan Township, NJ : 1.2 Bcfd (Crown Landing LNG – BP)
16. Bahamas : 0.5 Bcfd, (Seafarer - El Paso/FPL )
17. Corpus Christi, TX: 1.0 Bcfd (Ingleside Energy – Occidental Energy Ventures)
18. Providence, RI : 0.5 Bcfd (Keyspan & BG LNG)
19. Port Arthur, TX: 1.5 Bcfd (Sempra)
20. Cove Point, MD : 0.8 Bcfd (Dominion)
21. LI Sound, NY: 1.0 Bcfd (Broadwater Energy – TransCanada/Shell)
Constructed
A. Everett, MA : 1.035 Bcfd (Tractebel – DOMAC)
Proposed to MARAD/Coast Guard
22. California Offshore: 1.5 Bcfd (Cabrillo Port – BHP Billiton)
Constructed
A. Everett, MA : 1.035 Bcfd (Tractebel – DOMAC)
B. Cove Point, MD : 1.0 Bcfd (Dominion – Cove Point LNG)
C. Elba Island, GA : 0.68 Bcfd (El Paso – Southern LNG)
D. Lake Charles, LA : 1.0 Bcfd (Southern Union – Trunkline LNG)
Approved by FERC
1. Lake Charles, LA: 1.1 Bcfd (Southern Union – Trunkline LNG)
2. Hackberry, LA : 1.5 Bcfd, (Sempra Energy)
3. Bahamas : 0.84 Bcfd, (AES Ocean Express)*
4. Bahamas : 0.83 Bcfd, (Calypso Tractebel)*
5. Freeport, TX : 1.5 Bcfd, (Cheniere/Freeport LNG Dev.)
6. Sabine, LA : 2.6 Bcfd (Cheniere LNG)
7. Elba Island, GA: 0.54 Bcfd (El Paso – Southern LNG)
Approved by MARAD/Coast Guard
8. Port Pelican: 1.6 Bcfd, (Chevron Texaco)
9. Gulf of Mexico: 0.5 Bcfd, (El Paso Energy Bridge GOM, LLC)
Proposed to FERC
10. Fall River, MA : 0.8 Bcfd, (Weaver's Cove Energy/Hess LNG)
11. Long Beach, CA : 0.7 Bcfd, (Mitsubishi/ConocoPhillips – Sound Energy Solutions)
12. Corpus Christi, TX : 2.6 Bcfd, (Cheniere LNG)
13. Corpus Christi, TX : 1.0 Bcfd (Vista Del Sol - ExxonMobil)
14. Sabine, TX : 1.0 Bcfd (Golden Pass - ExxonMobil)
15. Logan Township, NJ : 1.2 Bcfd (Crown Landing LNG – BP)
16. Bahamas : 0.5 Bcfd, (Seafarer - El Paso/FPL )
17. Corpus Christi, TX: 1.0 Bcfd (Ingleside Energy – Occidental Energy Ventures)
18. Providence, RI : 0.5 Bcfd (Keyspan & BG LNG)
19. Port Arthur, TX: 1.5 Bcfd (Sempra)
20. Cove Point, MD : 0.8 Bcfd (Dominion)
21. LI Sound, NY: 1.0 Bcfd (Broadwater Energy – TransCanada/Shell)
Proposed to MARAD/Coast Guard
22. California Offshore: 1.5 Bcfd (Cabrillo Port – BHP Billiton)
23. Louisiana Offshore : 1.0 Bcfd (Gulf Landing – Shell)
24. So. California Offshore : 0.5 Bcfd, (Crystal Energy)
25. Louisiana Offshore : 1.0 Bcfd (Main Pass McMoRan Exp.)
26. Gulf of Mexico: 1.0 Bcfd (Compass Port - ConocoPhillips)
27. Gulf of Mexico : 2.8 Bcfd (Pearl Crossing - ExxonMobil)
Potential Sites Identified by Project Sponsors
28. Coos Bay, OR: 0.13 Bcfd, (Energy Projects Development)
29. Somerset, MA : 0.65 Bcfd (Somerset LNG)
30. California - Offshore : 0.75 Bcfd, (Chevron Texaco)
31. Pleasant Point, ME : 0.5 Bcf/d (Quoddy Bay, LLC)
32. St. Helens, OR: 0.7 Bcfd (Port Westward LNG LLC)
33. Offshore Boston, MA: 0.8 Bcfd (Northeast Gateway – Excelerate Energy)
34. Galveston, TX: 1.2 Bcfd (Pelican Island – BP)
35. Pascagoula, MS: 1.0 Bcfd (Gulf LNG Energy LLC)
36. Port Lavaca, TX: 1.0 Bcfd (Calhoun LNG – Gulf Coast LNG Partners)
37. Philadelphia, PA: 0.6 Bcfd (Freedom Energy Center – PGW)
38. Pascagoula, MS: 1.3 Bcfd (ChevronTexaco))
39. Cameron, LA: 2.6 Bcfd (Creole Trail LNG – Cheniere LNG)
40. Astoria, OR: 1.0 Bcfd (Skipanon LNG – Calpine)
Canadian Approved and Potential Terminals
41. St. John, NB : 1.0 Bcfd, (Canaport – Irving Oil)**
42. Point Tupper, NS 1.0 Bcf/d (Bear Head LNG - Anadarko)**
43. Quebec City, QC : 0.5 Bcfd (Project Rabaska – Enbridge/Gaz Met/Gaz de France)
44. Rivière-du- Loup, QC: 0.5 Bcfd (Cacouna Energy – TransCanada/PetroCanada)
45. Kitimat, BC: 0.34 Bcfd (Galveston LNG)
46. Prince Rupert, BC: 0.30 Bcfd (WestPac Terminals)
47. Goldboro, NS 1.0 Bcfd (Keltic Petrochemicals)
Mexican Approved and Potential Terminals
48. Altamira, Tamulipas : 1.12 Bcfd, (Shell)**
49. Baja California, MX : 1.0 Bcfd, (Sempra & Shell)**
50. Baja California - Offshore : 1.4 Bcfd, (Chevron Texaco)
51. Lázaro Cárdenas, MX : 0.5 Bcfd (Tractebel/Repsol)
52. Puerto Libertad, MX: 1.3 Bcfd (Sonora Pacific LNG)
WRI
Natural Gas Flow Patterns in 2004
Flow (Average MMcfd)
2004
15
6100
3093
740
538
2058
1507
271
Eastern Canada
2728
1537
300
122
0
59
1590
180
752
2392
87
902
742
1089
2100
359
145
0
2166
New
England
450
Everett
2058
891
453
Mid-Atlantic
0
0
3360
712
740
2685
388
841
415
107
1342
2475
2004
25
599
Cove Point
Elba Island
4101
293
223
4293
1751
50
5751
1785
Baja MX
2364
Florida/Bahamas
Katy
490
Altimira MX
0
6081 1232
845
Blue Lines indicate LNG
Gray Lines indicate an increase
Red Lines indicate a decrease
519
5248
1216
128
0
1948
1949
571
772
276
2985
108
173
318
501
255
Southern
California
2680
1544
1754
0
Mid-Atlantic
4189
Northern
California
2207
0
Offshore
TX
379
469 2214
Lake Charles/New LA
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Tons CO2 Eq./Mill. Intl $
Efficiency Gains Are Possible
600
500
31%
36%
58%
400
300
200
100
0
USA
Source : WRI/CAIT
Germany
Japan
France
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Potential for CCS
• Coal powers more than ½ of
all US electric supply, and is
responsible for 20% of US
emissions
• By 2030, additions to US coalbased electric generation will
produce ~1000 MT of
additional CO2
• Zero emissions technology, if
applied across all new plants
could reduce these emissions
• Development of this
technology could have
applications around the world
WRI
The Private Sector Is Also Acting
Chicago Climate Exchange
Carbon Financial Instruments - Market Data
Price : Per metric ton of CO2, November 1 - 5, 2004
Vintage
Last
Change
Change %
2003
$1.49
-0.04
-2.61%
2004
$1.36
-0.09
-6.21%
2005
$1.35
-0.10
-6.90%
2006
$1.36
-0.09
-6.21%
Volume: 44,700 metric tons CO2
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WRI
290 corporate facilities across 25
states & DC are buying green power
State with green power/
REC purchase or project
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Conclusions
•
Emissions in the US continue to rise, and
policies are not keeping pace.
–
–
–
–
•
The executive branch is particularly slow to adopt
programs, although it has begun to develop a more
aggressive technology approach
Congress is acting, although little new legislation has
been passed
State efforts are increasing, and seem likely to
continue to increase
Private sector commitments are increasing
It is likely that US policy will shift, but significant
change does not seem likely until after this
Administration leaves office
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30