Transcript Document

Ongoing discussions on
international climate policy post
2012
17 October 2005
Niklas Höhne, [email protected]
ECOFYS Cologne, Germany
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
ECOFYS Energy and Environment
• European research and consulting company
• In total 250 employees in the Netherlands,
Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy
• Example projects:
– Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU
emission trading system for the UK government
– Work on future international climate commitments for,
e.g., the German Environmental Agency and EU
Commission
– Capacity building: Centres of excellence for CDM in
India and South Africa
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Future international action on climate
change network
Collecting information
- Activities
- Institutions
- Ideas
Discussion forum
www.fiacc.net
Funded by
- German Federal
Environmental Agency
- EU Commissions DG
Environment
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Negotiation history
1992
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC):
Industrialized countries reduce emissions to 1990 level in 2000
1997
Kyoto Protocol:
Industrialized countries reduce 5% below 1990 in 2008 to 2012
Open questions remain
Mach 2001
2001
Nov 2004
16 Feb 2005
USA rejects the Kyoto Protocol
Detailed rules for the Kyoto Protocol are agreed
(Emission trading, CDM, JI)
Conference of the Parties (COP) decides to hold a seminar on
the future in May 2005
Kyoto Protocol enters into force
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Content
Official / high level discussions
May 2005: UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental
Experts (SOGE)
June 2005: G8 Summit
July 2005: Asia-Pacific Partnership on
Development and Climate
August 2005: Greenland ministerial dialogue on
climate change
September 2005: Ministerial meeting in Ottawa
October 2005: Informal Meeting organized by
Japan/Brazil
November 2005: COP11 and COP/MOP1
Informal / content dialogues
September 2005: OECD Annex I Expert Group
September 2005: Pew Center
October 2005: Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental
Experts (SOGE)
• First time to talk about the future in the UNFCCC context
- open, informal and relaxed atmosphere
• No detailed proposals on how to move forward. EU was modest
Themes
• Compensation for avoided deforestation. Papua New Guinea:
include deforestation and right emission target then it would
obtain "Kyoto Protocol Annex I" status
• Simplification of CDM: Currently not living up to expectations
• Montreal Mandate: Called for by South Africa, Mexico,
Argentina, Switzerland, EU,...
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
G8 Summit
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Will Continue dialogue on climate, energy and development
(G8 +5 developing countries to meet 1 November 2005)
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At the same time strengthening of the UNFCCC as the
negotiation forum
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Gleneagles plan of action:
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Transforming the way we use energy
Powering a cleaner future
Promoting research and development
Financing the transition to cleaner energy
Managing the impact of climate change
Tackling illegal logging
Created large momentum and efforts in the preparation, but did
not change position of the USA
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Asia-Pacific Partnership on
Development and Climate
Initiative by Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, USA
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Agree to cooperate on technologies including energy
efficiency, clean coal, carbon capture and storage,
methane capture and use, civilian nuclear power, advanced
transportation, agriculture and forestry, hydropower, wind,
solar, …
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Meeting was scheduled for November but postponed
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Greenland ministerial dialogue on
climate change
22 Ministers and heads of delegation (August 2005):
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“The blaming game” has to stop
COP/MOP1: development of the CDM beyond 2012
Develop an inclusive strategy beyond 2012: general
interest in exploring new options:
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sectoral targets
voluntary commitments
further differentiation using different types of commitments
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Content
Official / high level discussions
May 2005: UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental
Experts (SOGE)
June 2005: G8 Summit
July 2005: Asia-Pacific Partnership on
Development and Climate
August 2005: Greenland ministerial dialogue on
climate change
September 2005: Ministerial meeting in Ottawa
October 2005: Informal Meeting organized by
Japan/Brazil
November 2005: COP11 and COP/MOP1
Informal / content dialogues
September 2005: OECD Annex I Expert Group
September 2005: Pew Center
October 2005: Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
COP 11 and COP/MOP 1
Possible compromise
• Continue the preparatory dialogue
• Agreement on negotiating mandate at COP 12 (2006) to
finalize negotiations in 2008
• Under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
Canada’s guidelines
• Enhance environmental effectiveness
• Advance sustainable development goals
• Broaden participation (sector strategies)
• Building a strong global emissions market
• Realise full potential of technology
• Tackle adaptation
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Content
Official / high level discussions
May 2005: UNFCCC Seminar of Governmental
Experts (SOGE)
June 2005: G8 Summit
July 2005: Asia-Pacific Partnership on
Development and Climate
August 2005: Greenland ministerial dialogue on
climate change
September 2005: Ministerial meeting in Ottawa
October 2005: Informal Meeting organized by
Japan/Brazil
November 2005: COP11 and COP/MOP1
Informal / content dialogues
September 2005: OECD Annex I Expert Group
September 2005: Pew Center
October 2005: Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP)
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
OECD Annex I expert group
Topics
• Sectoral crediting mechanism (extended CDM)
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Compatibility of different types of commitments with
emission trading (dynamic targets, price cap, sector
targets)
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Options for integrating different approaches (e.g. emission
targets and technology protocol): Comparison of efforts
difficult but not necessarily impossible
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
PEW center
Strawman elements
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Aspirational Long-Term Goal: in temperature or concentration
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Targets and Trading: Absolute, dynamic and “no lose” targets
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Sectoral: Sector targets and trading, performance or technology
standards
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Sustainable development policies: Verified reductions can be
traded
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Technology: Coordinate research on long term technologies
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Adaptation
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Include adaptation in lending practice of multilateral banks
offer subsidized climate disaster “insurance” to middle-income
developing countries
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Center for Clean Air Policy
Issues
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Sector-based straw man proposal: voluntary “no lose”
carbon intensity targets for the energy and major industry
sectors in developing countries, coupled with absolute
emissions limits in developed countries
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Prospects of merging different international efforts
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Insurance based approaches on adaptation
Ongoing discussions on international climate policy post 2012
Conclusions
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Increasing momentum, more activities than ever
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Strong focus on alternatives to absolute binding emission
targets
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Dynamic targets, price caps,…
Sectoral targets / sectoral standards
Technology agreements
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Accordingly: How can such different systems be
merged/compared?
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Incentives for developing country participation: “No lose”
targets, sector crediting mechanisms, sustainable
development policies, revisiting CDM