Transcript Document

Regional Workshop on
Climate Change and Local Action
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ARMENIA CASE
STUDY:
Climate Change Impact
Study for Lusadzor Village
in Tavush Marz, Armenia
Naira Aslanyan
September 19-22, 2011
Bratislava, Slovak Republic
Armenia’s Climate Profile
• Climate: from dry subtropical to frosty highlands
• Observed climate aridification: temp. incraese
by 0.850C (1929-2007), precipitation decrease by
6% (1935-2004).
• Extreme weather events & natural disasters:
Droughts, seasonal flooding, hailstorm, early
frost, landslides, mudflows, rockfalls, forest fires
• Water stresses: water reserves in snow
decreased annually by 5-10% during (1961-90)
• Forest area: 10.4% of territory, 20,000 ha suffers
by pests, 168,000USD damaged due to forest
fires (2004-2009)
• CC scenarios by 2100: Temp. increase - by
5.80C, precipitation decrease – by 9%
• projected consequences of CC (by 2100) –
reduction of: river flow – 24.4%, snow cover –
20-40%, soil humidiy – 10-30% (by 2050),
productivity of arable lands – 15-34%
Aggravation of health/epidemiological/ situation –
increased cases of infectious diseases (including
water born), heat waves, atypical diseases
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CC Proofing Activities in Armenia
NATIONAL LEVEL
SNC
CRM Technical Assistance
– Indosnesia, Ecuador,
Mozmb., Armenia
CC
mainstreaming
in UNDAF
Socio-economic impact
assessment of climate
change in Armenia
DRR/CRM
strategy
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MARZ LEVEL
CC impact assessment in Shirak
marz/region
CC impact risk assessment in Ararat
marz/region
COMMUNITY LEVEL
Lusadzor Village Community
Climate Change Impact Study
CC impact assessment on water
resources of Marmarik river basin
UNDP CDP Screening
Rationale :
• Programme supports local development in climate sensitive area (floods,
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mudflows, frost, hail);
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• Focuse on rural infrastructure rehabilitation and agriculture development.
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Lusadzor Project activities:
• Access to non-cultivated arable land;
• Construction of irrigation system operating through gravity flow;
• Construction of internal network for potable water;
• Planting of persimmon orchards and distribution of seedlings to rural households;
• Creation of revolving funds of wheat, maize and potato seeds.
Climate Relevance:
• Situation analysis recognizesdextreme weather events and climate disasters as
important risks hindering local development;
• However, no target efforts have been made to address these risks in local planning and
pilot activities.
Objective of CC proofing:
• Minimize CC impact on CDP outputs;
• Foster activities which can increase the adaptive capacity of communities.
Lusadzor Community Profile
• Lusadzor: a border village in Ijevan district of Tavush marz
• Elevation: 700 m
• Types of terrain: low and middle mountain steppe, and low mountain
dry steppe
• Territory: 626 ha with 73.8% agricultural land
• Soil category: mountain-steppe
• Vegetation type: wood land
• Average annual temperature & precipitation:
110C & 600 mm; on average, 150 sunny days
• Population: 359 men and 365 women
• # of inhabited households in 2007: 197
• Employed in agriculture: 33,5% of total local
population
• Non agricultural activities: at commercial counters,
a stone-working worshop, preferrite and dolomite
mines, other
• Education level: above 16 years old, 25% have
higher/secondary/vocational degrees
• Receiving family allowances: 22.8% of the households
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Rrisk assessment
- Top down approach
• Climate disasters prone area:
• floods, mudflows, frost, hail;
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• Community development challenges:
• low agricultural productivity,
• land abandonment (poor irrigation, access to arable lands)
• poor rural infrastructure (housing issues, poot roads and bridge connecting to
arable lands in the village)
• remoteness of markets and low prices
• climate variability and projected CC expected to exacerbate the development
challenges
• Needs to address the challenges:
• Information gaps for diagnosis: low resolution scenarios (national level,
derived from regional scenarios); need for bottom-up V&A assessment:
• Observable changes, shifts in seasons;
• Type and magnitude of losses due to the hazards;
• Current coping mechanisms and capacities;
• Priority needs to address additional vulnerabilities
• Need for site-specific projections.
Risk and V&A assessment
- Bottom-up approach
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1. Gathering and
2. Identification of
analysis of climate
related data on
Lusadzor
climate risk prone
activities in the
Lusadzor CDP project
3. Identification and
economic assessment
of adaptation measures
Methodology
Interviews:
- Local Communities
- Representatives of Agr.
Dept, Tavush Marz
Administration
Anallysis of meteo
data:
- Ijevan Met. Post
- Berd Met. Post
Expert
Judgement
1. Effectiveness
2. Cost
3. Adequace for
current climate
4. Technical
feasibility
Findings
 The frequency and intensity of climatic hazards has increased
 There are tangible economic losses due to climatic hazards (washed out lands,
damaged crops and infrastructure. In 2004-2007: 57,500 USD)
 lack of information (weather forecasts, risk mitigation measures) is one of the
main barriers to coping with climate risks
Data for 1991-2006 compared with 1961-1990
• air temperature increase - the highest
in summer
• precipitation increase in spring &
summer and decrease in fall & winter
Meteorolo
gical point
Ijevan
Berd
T, 0C
+ 0.62
+ 0.77
–6
– 169
P, mm
Monthly average T (0C) & P (mm) 1961-1990 with max and min 1991-2006
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Projected CC for north-east of Armenia
Based on the report “Model Simulations of Climate Change over
Armenia Region” developed under SNC
Predictions
Year
Winter
Spring
Summer
Fall
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Annual
Temperature anomalies (0C) compared to 1961-1990 baseline average
Temperatur
e anomalies
(0C)
2030
1.05
1.05
1.23
0.32
0.87
2070
2.5
2.5
2.8
1.0
2.1
2100
3-5
3-5
4-5
1-3
2.5-4.5
Precipitation anomalies compared to 1961-1990 baseline mean (%)
Precipitatio 2030
n anomalies
2070
(%)
2100
+7
+2
-9
+7
+3
+15
+4
-18
+15
+7
+20
+5
-25
+20
+10
Screening of Lusadzor Project Activities
Project activities screened for:
 climate change sensitivity
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 adaptation value (positive or negative) using expert judgment
and taking into account predicted climate change impacts for the
area
Findings:
 The sensitivity assessment of the Lusadzor Project found that the
project’s outcomes are not at high risk from climate change
 Some of the project activities have positive adaptation value
 Project activities are not sufficient to build the adaptive capacity
of the local population and improve their livelihood in the face of
climate change
Economic assessment of adaptation measures
Effectiveness: benefits, damages avoided or mitigated, losses and
associated costs avoided or minimized
Cost:
incremental to “business as usual”
Adequacy for current climate: benefits under the current climatic
conditions and future scenarios
Technical feasibility: capacity and means to implement the measure
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Assessment Criteria
(where: + low, ++ medium, +++ high)
Adaptation measures (by #s)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Effectiveness
++
+++
+++
+++
+++
++
Cost
+++
+
+++
+
++
+
Adequacy for Current Climate
++
+++
+++
++
+++
++
Technical Feasibility
+
+++
++
++
+++
+++
Adaptation measures
(total costs - appr. 213,000 USD)
1.
Transformation of non-cultivated lands to arable lands. (81,000 USD) Being implemented by MCA
2.
Improving local seasonal forecasting and early warning: flood early
warning, weather forecasting, droughts etc. (720 USD) – Proposed to be
implemented by local authorities, Ijevan hydromet station
3.
Farm piloting / demonstration of adaptation measures. (124,837 USD) –
Proposed to be supported by various donors
4.
5.
Facilitation of community meetings and farmer trainings on climate risk
management to identify and help develop farmers coping and adaptation
strategies. (2,558 USD) – Proposed to be implemented by local authorities
Creation of communal social nets and common pool of resources to
cope with major stressors in the community. (2,654 USD) – Being
implemented by UNDP Armenia
6.
Incorporation of adaptation measures into the integrated dev. plans for
communities, e.g. infrastructure development works. (1,187 USD) –
Proposed to be implemented with the support of meteorologists and hydrologists
from Ijevan hydromet station
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Key Challenges
 Constraints with meteorological data availability;
 Reliability of available information;
 Proper assessment of damage caused by climatic hazards is not
comprehensive and periodic – due to the absence of insurance
system;
 Farms are small and have limited coping capacity
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Lessons Learned
 Time consuming exercise due to participatory process;
 Some of project activities had adaptation value – important to identify before
proposing an adaptation measure;
 There is always scope to improve adaptation capacity to increase effectiveness
and sustainability of the project;
 Important to focus on cost-effective and feasible measures
 Important to introduce CRM at project design stage, as part of feasibility, so
that additional costs do not incur to the project budget
 There are apparent links between CC adaptation and disaster risk reduction –
important to looked at them in parrallel while deisgning a project.
Local Actions – Lusadzor
(2008-2011)
UNDP CDP - Greenhouses
established
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MCA - Collection Centre constructed for
collecting, sorting, cold storage and further
marketing of agricultural products in
communities of Tavush Marz
MCA - Rehabilitation of tertiary
canal in Lusadzor
UNDP CDP-potable water
network reconstructed
UNDP CDP – 120
rural households
engaged in artificial
insemination of
cattle – “Zebu”
Other:
Trainings/Awareness
raising events on CC
MCA - Gravity system in Lusadzor
constructed for irrigation of 300
hectares - (2 pumping stations to be
eliminated- resulting in 0.6 mln.
Kwt/hour electricity saving).
UNDP - solar water heater installed
on cooperative kitchen
organized by UNDP &
OXFAM for local communities/
authorities of Lusadzor
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THANK YOU
Government Building #3, Yerevan, Republic Square
5th Floor, Suite 533
Phone: (37410) 58-39-20,
Fax: (37410) 58-39-33
E-mail: [email protected]
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