Transcript Global Responses to Global Threats

Ringvorlesung Global Studies
Nachhaltigkeit und Globale Entwicklung
Sustainable global security
The role of academics
Richard Parncutt
University of Graz
30 April 2007
Contents
Threats to global security
 The role of academics

Acknowledgment
John Sloboda and the Oxford Research Group
The biggest threat?

“Terrorism is the greatest 21st Century threat, and
there is only one rational response - to stand up to it
with an "unshakeable unity of purpose" until the
world is free of this evil".

Tony Blair, London,
November 2003
(on the occasion of the
State visit of George W Bush)
US deaths from terrorism
Number of US citizens killed by
international terrorism (1995-2003).
Source: US Department of State
3500
3000
2689
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
12
1995
24
1996
7
1997
12
1998
6
1999
23
2000
2001
27
35
2002
2003
World deaths from terrorism
Total number of people killed by
international terrorism (1995-2003)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Main causes of death in the USA (2001)
Pn
eu
m
on
ia
D
ia
be
te
s
Ac
cid
en
Lu
ts
ng
C
an
ce
r
C
an
H
ce
ea
r
rt
di
se
as
e
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
Terror versus climate change

"I think we still overestimate the danger of
terror. There are other things that are of
equal, if not greater, magnitude, like the
environmental global risks."
(Hans Blix speaking on UK TV
– March 2004)
A real threat to global security:
US military in Persian gulf




US was self-sufficient in oil until the 1970s
CENTCOM in Persian Gulf since 1970s
Primary aim is oil control
Permanent US bases in Iraq: near oilfields
The invasion of Iraq:
Justified by lying






“developing weapons of mass destruction”
“involved in 9/11”
“an international terrorist threat”
“The aim of the war is democracy”
“Civilian casualties will be low”
“Invasion is pre-emptive defense”
…and people believed it!
The invasion of Iraq:
illegal and undemocratic



Resolution of the UN security council
International demonstrations
Even military objections
Iraq: civilian deaths since May 2003
Year 1 =
Year 2 =
Year 3* =
6,331
11,312
12,617
Source: www.iraqbodycount.org
20 per day
31 per day
36 per day
Iraq – results







death
torture
living standards
sectarian hatred
civil war
terrorism
wasted financial resources
The main threats to global security
1. Climate change
2. Competition for resources
3. Socio-economic divisions
4. Global militarisation
5. Terrorism
Interactions between global threats
Each point interacts with the others!
E.g. nuclear power
1. Climate change:
2. Competition for resources:
3. Socio-economic divisions:
4. Global militarisation:
5. Terrorism:
maybe
no
no
no
no
Addressing instability
Global
threat
Control
paradigm
Sustain
paradigm
Climate
Nuclear power
Renewable energy
Resources
Military force
Reduce consumption
Poverty
Social control
Reduce poverty
Militarisation
Threaten
Disarm
Terrorism
Declare “war”
Political dialogue
The role of academics
Why academics?

Politicians can’t do everything
–
–

limited information and intellectual resources
limited time window (next election)
Academic training costs taxpayers
Taxpayers should benefit

Prerequisites for democracy
–
–
–
equal rights  political basis
freedom of speech  academic role
access to accurate information  academic role
Academic strengths

Rational, logical, detached thinking
–

Intellectual resources
–
–

academic and popular literature
reconciling contrasting viewpoints
Communication and networking
–
–

evidence  conclusion  implications
international colleagues, interdisciplinary approaches
opportunities to inform the general public
Imagining the unimaginable
–
–
physicists imagine quarks
academics imagine future scenarios
The end of the world?
Observation:

Crazy people predict the end of the world
Irrational conclusion:

There is no danger of an “end of the world”
Implication:


Don’t worry about it
Maintain distance from those crazy people
A rational alternative


Massive catastrophes are possible
They can be caused by humans
 Take responsibility
 Who else will?
 Work towards realistic solutions
 Concrete projects rather than talk and agreements
 Focus on the big picture
 Detail is important but don’t get lost in it
Prioritisation: A quantitative approach
1.
2.
3.
Estimate probability p of a catastrophe
Estimate number of deaths N (or equivalent suffering)
Prioritize political projects according to pN
Example
A nuclear war could kill 10, 100 oder 1000 million

rough estimate: N = 100,000,000
Probability is less than 100% and more than 1%

rough estimate: p = 10%
pN = 10 million will die if nothing is done
Implication: Act now! Nothing is more urgent

Evolutionary psychology
Are men inherently violent?
 Do men care only about their own
cultural group?
 Is human nature such that selfdestruction is inevitable?

The role of rational thinking and altruism
A rational-selfish response
Survival depends on altruism
 No clear boundary between

–
–

altruism and selfishness
Local and global
Individual nations
 sustainable global security
Implications for federal budgets

„Global“ expenditure: 30%*
–
–
–

aid, development, poverty reduction: 10%*
renewable energy research and promotion: 10%*
defense, conflict res., peace research, cultural exch.: 10%*
Domestic expenditure: 70%*
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
administration: 10%*
education: 10%*
transport: 10%*
research: 10%*
benefits: 10%*
health: 10%*
other: 10%*
* Order of magnitude estimates
Implications for universities
Promote global sustainability:

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
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10% of professorships
5% of working time of all staff
5% of all curricula
Political thinktank (Außeninstitut)
Professorships and venia

Theology
–

Economics
–
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International law: asylum, torture, conflict, rights, democracy
Science:
–
–
–
–

Developmental economics
Law:
–

Interfaith dialog
Peace psychology
Intercultural sociology
Sustainable energy and agriculture
Biodiversity
Humanities:
–
–
Applied history
Pacifist and minority literature, art and music
Political thinktank

Aim:
–
–
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Products:
–
–
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Knowledge transfer on current issues
Improve profile and impact of university
Press statements, publications
Conferences and presentations
Content:
–
–
interdisciplinary, many authors
research based
The psychology and sociology of lying
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Important stage of child development
–
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Important aspect of everyday life
–
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can be positive
Game theory
–
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theory of mind
Lying as survival or power strategy
Lying in politics
–
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Often deemed necessary to maintain power
Citizens tend to believe leaders
Lying: the role of universities
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Promote honest scholarship
Train independent critical thinking
Promote transparency using info technology
Promote collegiality, oppose mobbing
Austria: A special responsibility
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Holocaust: the worst ever crime
Wealth, freedom, democracy
Unlike Germany, no communist history