Transcript Potential Impacts of Climate Change on California

Searching for Practical and
Flexible Definitions of Extreme
Events under a Changing
Climate
Guido Franco
Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program
California Energy Commission
ASP Research Colloquium
June 15, 2011
Climate Change Research at
the Energy Commission
• PIER was created in the late 1990s and started working in earnest
on climate change in 2001
• First PIER Assessment for California released in 2003
• PIER created the California Climate Change Center in 2003
– First state-sponsored climate change research initiative in the
USA
– Designed to complement national/international programs
– Annual budget ~ $6 million
– Areas of research: 1) climate monitoring, analysis, and
modeling; 2) GHG inventory methods; 3) Options to reduce net
GHG emissions; and 4) impacts and adaptation studies
• More than 150 scientific PIER reports produced so far resulting in
multiple publications in scientific journals
2006 Assessment
•Led by PIER
•About 17 scientific papers
•Special Issue in Climatic Change
“Our Changing Climate” contributed to the
passage of AB32
Emphasis on physical impacts
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Study: extreme events
Work in progress
Study Design
• Interviews with practitioners to determine how they
define extreme events for their sector. Use past events
if a definition is not available
• Use the climate and sea level rise projections available
for California (BCSD and BCCA and VIC): daily, 12 Km
• Re-define extreme events, if needed, using the variables
that are “well” modeled
• Identify potential extreme events that have not occurred
yet in the historical record
• Estimate the possibility of concurrent extreme events
Lessons learned so far
• There are no standard definitions of
extreme events
• Past events can be used to define them.
Three examples:
– Mortality and morbidity effects with two consecutive days with
temperatures above 9x percentile – California Department of
Public Health
– Electricity system under stress if weighted average temperatures
in California are above 9x F (warming every where in CA) – CA
Energy Commission
– CA Freeze January 2007. Damages to citrus, berry, and
vegetable crops. $1.4 billion estimated in damage/costs. NOAA
• Cumulative distribution
functions of January daily
minimum temperature across
the regions (plotted roughly
geographically). The Y axis
shows the probability (zero to
one) of experiencing the
indicated temperature or lower
on any particular day in
January. Results from the
historical run are in blue; the
future run is in red.
Source: Pierce, et al. 2011. Draft PIER Report
Lessons learned so far (cont.)
• Integrating parameters such as river flows can
be better predictors (e.g., good correlation
between three-day average river flows and
flooding)
• Extremes events should be considered in their
regulatory and legal context. For example, the
last draught in California was exacerbated by
regulatory impediments to the exportation of
water via the Delta
An example of a potential
extreme event without an
historical precedent
There are Important Energy
Facilities in the Delta
• The Sacramento-San
Joaquin Delta is
protected by levees.
Delta islands are below
sea level
• Energy Facilities:
– Underground natural gas
reservoirs
– Transmission lines
– Power plants on the west
side of the Delta
Source: PPIC 2007
• GPS and InSAR (Synthetic
Aperture Radar Interferometry)
suggest a synoptic subsidence
throughout the Delta at rates of
5-20 mm/yr
• Projections including sea-level
rise indicate large-scale
overtopping threat in the 21st
century
• Sea level rise and increased
river flows in the winter will
increase the possibility of a
catastrophic failure of the Delta
Source: Mount and Twiss, 2005 (with modifications)
Source: B. Brooks et al., Draft PIER report
2011.
Some issues with the Climate
Projections for California
Sensing and Projecting Regional Climate Change in California
Baseline Data Collection
Monitoring
Modeling and Analysis
Analysis of climatic data.
Reanalysis of CA
Climatic Data with
adequate temporal and
geographical resolution
Compile historical
and
paleoclimatological
data for California
Intercomparison Study
Design
Measurements of known critical key
variables (e.g., snow cover in high
elevations).
Measurement of additional key
variables as identified by the
reanalysis of the CA climatic data
GCM modeling runs at
adequate temporal and
geographical resolution to be
used as input for CA regional
modeling efforts
Intercomparison of Dynamic and
Statistical RCM simulations
(Phase I : Historical and perhaps
paleoclimatic data)
Generation of Future CA
Climate Scenarios.
Features: Probability
distribution for the different
climatic scenarios. Scenarios
will include extreme events
and potentially abrupt climate
changes
Intercomparison of Dynamic and
Statistical RCM Simulations
Phase II: One or two years with
enhanced evaluation data
Red = Tier I (project in the critical path and when PIER may provide most of the funding, if needed)
Black = Tier II (PIER and outside funding)
Blue = Tier III (mostly outside funding)
Critical Path
Source: Franco et al., 2003
GCM
BCCR BCM 2.0
CCCMA
CGCM3.1
CNRM CM3
CSIRO MK3.0
GFDL CM2.0
GFDL CM2.1
GISS e_r
INMCM 3.0
IPSL CM4
MIROC 3.2
medres
MIUB ECHO-G
MPI-ECHAM5
MRI
CGCM2.3.2
NCAR CCSM3
NCAR PCM1
UKMO
HadCM3
Institution
Bjerknes Centre Clim. Res., Bergen,
Norway
Canadian Centre,
Victoria, B.C., Canada
Meteo-France, Toulouse, France
CSIRO Atmos. Res., Melbourne,
Australia
Geophys. Fluid Dyn. Lab,
Princeton, NJ, USA
Geophys. Fluid Dyn. Lab,
Princeton, NJ, USA
NASA/Goddard Inst. Space Studies,
N.Y., USA
Inst. Num. Mathematics, Moscow,
Russia
Inst. Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris,
France
Center Climate Sys. Res., Tokyo,
Japan
Meteor. Inst. U. Bonn, Bonn,
Germany
Max Planck Inst. Meteor.,
Hamburg, Germany
Meteor. Res. Inst., Tsukuba,
Ibaraki, Japan
Nat. Center Atmos. Res., Boulder,
CO, USA
Nat. Center Atmos. Res., Boulder,
CO, USA
UK Met Office, Exeter, Devon, UK
Source: Pierce et al, 2011. Draft PIER Report
BCSD
Y
BCCA
WRF
RSM
RegCM3
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Y
Yearly precipitation change
(%, 2060-2069 compared to 1985-1994)
Source: Pierce et al., 2011. Draft PIER Report
Thank you !