Transcript wicked - Cornell University

Today
DeWitt John
Director of Environmental Studies
Bowdoin College
Attacking Wicked Problems like
Climate Change
DeWitt John: Policy Experience
Colorado:
Director, Division of Mines
Policy Director for the Governor
Washington DC:
Director of Economic Policy, Natl Governors Asso
Director, State Policy Program, Aspen Institute
Director, Center for the Economy & Environment,
Natl Academy of Public Administration
DeWitt John: Books
environment.gov: Transforming Environmental
Protection for the 21st Century
A Brighter Future for Rural America?: Strategies
for Communities and States
Civic Environmentalism: Alternatives to
Regulation in States and Communities
Resolving the paradox of environmental
protection
Clean air and the politics of coal
Attacking Wicked Problems like
Climate Change
3-28-07
DeWitt John
Environmental Studies Program
Bowdoin College
Brunswick, Maine
[email protected]
What is a “wicked” problem?
How can political leaders, citizens, and you
go about reducing the risks of “wicked”
problems?
Now-2010: the “policy window” in the US
for addressing the “wicked” problem of
climate change
Cuyahoga River burning, Cleveland, Ohio, 1969
Simple problems
A few, easily identifiable sources
Bad guys! Rich, unpopular culprits
Big predictable risks
Readily available technology to reduce risks
How to solve a simple problem
• Make the culprits at the sources install the
technology to eliminate the risks
– Regulation
– Incentives
Efficiency: elec 21%; res 62%; ind 73.5%; tn 20%
Simple problems
Few sources
Wicked problems
Many sources – too many to
count!
Multiple, unknown, or poor
Identifiable, rich,
unpopular culprits culprits –
or “we all are the problem”:
need for widespread
collective action
Simple problems
Wicked problems
Big, predictable Multiple risks, uncertain timing
risks
New info about the problem &
“solutions” keeps appearing
Available
affordable
technology
Risky, expensive technology.
Technologies not yet fully
developed.
Too many technologies! (P&S)
Unintended consequences
Market failures (information,
difference in perspectives about
time)
How to solve a simple problem
• Make the culprits at the sources install the
technology to eliminate the risks
– Regulation
– Incentives
How to get a handle on a wicked problem
Many sources
- Look first for “low-hanging fruit” – easy things
that will pay off quickly
- Set broad goals and plan for incremental changes
to address other sources
Culprits?
- First identify culprits that you can influence or
regulate easily and productively
- Then, can you find businesses/investors that will
profit from developing clean new technologies?
How to get a handle on a wicked problem
Unpredictable risks
- Assess the longer-term risks and expect surprises
as events unfold
- Set some goals (e.g., 60-90% reduction in GHGs
by 2050)
- Develop scenarios – different ways to achieve
your goals
No ready technologies
- Develop new technologies, learning by doing
- Wicked problems open opportunities for creative
engineers
Technological lock-in
In the early phases of technological advance, many
paths are promising but too little is known about
potential impacts to choose the best paths. Later on,
when more is known, options are greatly restricted.
D Sarewitz Ways of Knowing Novel Materials
American Electric Power’s coal-fired power plant,
Examples of Technological Lock-in
Building coal-fired power plants
50 year life, high initial costs but cheap fuel
Turn new plants into culprits – as the Call to Action
tried to do.
or
When they must be rebuilt, the culprit may be your
ally!
They do face extra burdens; help them adapt.
Buy them off, cheaply.
Help AEP finance new, cleaner power plants.
Are wicked problems moral issues?
At the outset, we have an obligation to recognize
“wicked” problems
But culprits and risks abound; we need allies.
Develop a vision of where you want to go;
be humble: acknowledge uncertainties, learn as you go
turn culprits into allies whenever you can.
Policy to address “wicked” problems
1. Hedge your investments
Multiple strategies – no “bickering”
-
Low-carbon technologies
Energy efficiency
Conservation and the “simple life”
Use multiple tools
-
Regulations
Cap-and-trade
Performance standards
Public disclosure of emissions, carbon content, etc.
State and local “laboratories of democracy”– not
just the federal government
2. Build a “learning system” to improve scientific,
bureaucratic, and public understanding of the
problem and possible remedies
www.nanoriskframework.com
3. Expect surprises, take advantage of opportunities
–scientific discoveries, technological
breakthroughs, policy windows.
4. The perfect is the enemy of the good.
Be un-relenting; don’t give up. This is your life.
Politics for wicked problems
“Humans gravitate to stories where the plot
revolves around a single dramatic event rather
than where the ending is driven by slow
accumulation of change
(Robert Lempert et al.
“Shaping the Next 100 Years”, RAND, 2004)
The past is consistent with many different futures;
scenarios will open your mind and raise hopes.
Scenarios can inject technical plausibility and
narrative concreteness into the public debate –
help people learn.
1. Define an acceptable condition – it’s your goal
2. Imagine different paths to get to the goal
- Scientific
- Technologies
- Economic drivers
- Governance
- Culture and “morals”
3. Assess “risk-of-policy” – not “predict-then-act”
4. Be honest about your goal (20% reduction by 2020?)
- It’s a only an informed guess about the future.
- Use metrics to evaluate progress and educate about
uncertainties – both risks and opportunities.
Fragmentation of government in the US
-
Legislative-executive-judicial separation of powers
Multiple Congressional committees
Federal-state-local government
87,576 independent
governments
In a fragmented world:
It’s hard to get agreement on anything new.
It’s easier to stop action than to take action.
This has traditionally been thought to be acceptable in
the US – our system places a higher value on liberty
than on government effectiveness.
so . . .
Policy windows must open to allow big changes
1. Dramatic crisis gets the public’s attention
2. A politician wants to get attention, perhaps to run
for a higher office, is willing to take a risk by
offering a solution to the crisis
3. A policy entrepreneur gives the politician a fresh
idea about a policy that can respond to the crisis
Everyone lines up to support the fresh idea
to address the crisis
Humphrey. Not
elected in 1968
Nixon worried
about ‘72
Muskie hoping to
win in 72
Richard Nixon, elected President in 1968
Ed Muskie had made his reputation as an advocate
for the environment . . .
and was running against Nixon in 1972.
Nixon’s fresh idea: the federal government would
preempt state regulation
Result:
National Environmental Policy Act 1969
EPA created 1970
Clean Air Act of 1970
National leaders
committed to
action on climate
change
Businesses supporting a 60-90% cut in CO2 by 2050
- GE
- Merrill Lynch
- Duke Energy
- Alcoa
- Dupont
- Caterpillar
- Lehman Brothers
- BPAmerica
and others
So . . . . . . . . . . .
Climate Change Act of 2007. 08, 09 or 2010
???
What is the fresh idea?
Will cap-and-trade still be “fresh” in 2010?
Initial steps in 2007-08
GHG inventory and registry
Ban new conventional coal-fired plants??
RD&D for renewables & carbon sequestration
More state GHG plans
Local/personal commitments to buy low-carbon
electricity
Court ok for California’s low-carbon car
Higher CAFE standards – fuel efficiency??
Action in 2009-2010??
An aggressive national goal = 60% by 2020
Federal cap-and-trade legislation
New federal-state-business partnership for developing
low-carbon technologies
Then . . .
New federal-state partnership to build infrastructure
for
- for low-carbon cities
- for adapting to climate change
Imagine a Stable Climate
Understand the Planetary Problem (to the extent that
you can)
List and analyze the policy options
Take a stand – a technology, institution, approach
Experiment, fail, learn, succeed
Imagine Yourself Solving this Problem