Transcript Prediction of conifer natural regeneration

The role of uneven-aged silviculture in
diversifying forests in Britain:
to adapt to climate change and increase resilience to pests and diseases
Gary Kerr
Forest Research, Alice Holt Lodge,
Farnham, Surrey, United Kingdom.
Structure of presentation
1. Introduction to forests in Britain
2. Future challenges
3. Increasing resilience
4. Conclusions/Future concepts
Distribution of forests in GB
Typical upland plantations of Picea sitchensis
4
20/07/2015
Pests and diseases
Chalara on Ash!!!
Forest of Dean Today
1961-90
Coleford
Forest of Dean 2080
2080s High
The big challenge!
How can we adapt forests
to increase resilience to
biotic threats and climate
change, whilst maintaining
productivity?
What is resilience?
Resilience: the capacity of
a plant community to
maintain or regain normal
function and development
following disturbance.
Helms, J. 1998 The dictionary of forestry. CABI International, Oxford.
Ways to increase resilience
Three main options:
1. Species choice and deployment
2. Silvicultural systems / forest
structure (thinning)
3. Genetics
Our forests today
Conifer Species Today
Scots Pine
Corsican Pine
Sitka Spruce
Douglas Fir
• 5 conifer species account
for 88% of the total
Larch (EL, HL, JL)
Other Conifer
Percentage of Braodleaf Cover in England by Species
Broadleaved species today
• 5 broadleaved species
account for over 72% of
the total
Mixed Broadleaves
13%
Oak
26%
Other Broadleaves
11%
Elm
0%
Sweet chestnut
2%
Beech
10%
Poplar
2%
Birch
12%
• 10 tree species account for
80% of our woodland!!!!
Sycamore
8%
Ash
16%
Data Source National Inventory of
Woodland -England. Reference
date 1998.
2. Silvicultural systems
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20/07/2015
Sitka spruce at Clocaenog
3. Genetics
Provenance of Abies alba L.
Heights of Abies alba provenances at age 45
30.0
28.0
height (m)
26.0
24.0
Benmore
Radnor
Thetford
22.0
20.0
18.0
16.0
60(7975)3
59(4578)100
59(4578)101
60(4578)103
60(437)107
60(4943)2
60(4349)100
60(4447)
60(4942)4
60(4383)101
60(455)100
60(4439)
60(437)104
60(4942)6
60(4459)
60(4423)
60(437)110
60(4571)100
60(437)111
60(4531)100
59(4972)100
60(4383)100
60(4487)
60(4532)100
60(4971)103
14.0
Provenance
Data were analyzed using GLMM and results showed that site (P=0.026) and provenance (p<0.001) were
significant but site x provenance was not significant (p=0.578)
Summary – Resilient Forests
• A key ‘future concept’ in forest
management is resilience
• What does it mean?
• How can it be assessed/measured?
• Is the science in place to advise policy?
• Is understanding advanced enough to
develop forestry practice?
Spruce
Serbian spruce: Picea ormorika
Oriental spruce: Picea orientalis
Redwoods
Coast redwood: Sequoia sempervirens
Wellingtonia: Sequoiadendron
giganteum
Crytomeria: Japanese cedar
Japanese cedar: Cryptomeria japonica
Japanese cedar: Cryptomeria japonica
Cedars
Atlas cedar: Cerdus atlantica
Cedar of lebanon: Cedrus libani
Himalayan cedar: Cedrus diodara
Western red Cedar: Thuja plicata
Leyland cyprus: Cupressus x leylandii
European Fir’s
European silver fir: Abies alba
Greek fir: Abies cephalonica
Old favourites!
Western hemlock: Tsuga heterophylla
Douglas-fir: Pseudotsuga menziesii