Transcript Trade, Climate Change and Food Security

Trade, Climate Change and Food Security
Challenges for the International Trading
Regime from the South Asian Perspective
Siddhartha Mitra
Director (Research) CUTS International & Head, CUTS CITEE
[email protected]
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Plan of the presentation
Framing the problem
Some general characteristics of global warming induced
climate change
Climate change and global warming: evidence from South Asia
Impact of climate change on agriculture in South Asia
Role of trade & regional cooperation
Choices before South Asia for tackling food insecurity
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Framing the problem
In the next century, climate change and associated global
warming will reduce staple crop yields in South Asia and Sub
Saharan Africa while increasing it in temperate parts of the
world
Flooding, rise in sea level etc might actually reduce the amount
of cultivable land in South Asia
At the same time, this region will experience enhanced demand
for staples due to economic growth and population growth
The result would be food insecurity
Question: How do we solve this problem through the
international trading regime?
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Some general impacts of climate change
Rise in temperature
Erratic rainfall
Extreme weather
Floods and droughts
Rise in sea level
Coastal erosion
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Climate change and global warming: Some
evidence from South Asia
Meteorological evidence indicates that temperature in India
will increase by 2 - 4 o C by 2050 and the number of rainy days
in a year will decrease by more than 15
In Sri Lanka, average air temperature has increased by 0.64 oC
over the past 40 years. The frequency of droughts and
landslides has increased
Number of storm surges, larger storm waves and more intense
flooding events has increased in Maldives
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Climate change and global warming: Some
evidence from South Asia (Cont.)
Recent rise in mean temperature of around 0.6 -1.0 oC and 10-15
percent decrease in rainfall in arid plains and coastal belt in
Pakistan
In Bangladesh: 7.6 to 10.2 cm rise in high tide level per year and
a rise in sea level of 1metre predicted within the next 50 years; a
significant rise in rainfall and surface temperature over time
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Impact of climate change on agriculture:
General Findings/Inferences
Affects stability and quantity of food supply, purchasing
power of agricultural population, food aid
Large reductions in cereal yield of up to 22 percent in South
Asia (IFPRI, 2007)
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Impact of climate change on agriculture
and allied activities: Country specific
findings
Pakistan: Wheat yield which rose steadily till 2004 would fall
by around 6 percent by 2080; the fall would be in all regions
except the Northern mountainous region
Sri Lanka: At the current rate of rise in temperature rice yield
would reduce by 5.9 percent every 30 years
India: Expected temperature rise and its estimated impact on
yield imply a decline of wheat yield of around 10-40 percent by
2050
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How can trade alleviate food insecurity?
Import of climate change friendly technologies
Import of inputs facilitating the implementation of these
technologies
Trade negotiations and outcomes preventing distortion of the
market by surplus producing countries
Use of the above to prevent macroeconomic distortion
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Scope for regional cooperation
Better sharing of water resources to maximise production of
staples within the region
Better utilisation of the principles of comparative advantage in
staple food production
Research collaboration to facilitate development of climate
friendly technologies tuned to South Asian conditions
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Tackling food insecurity: Approach 1
Allow farmers to response to yield losses in staple cultivation
through changes in crop mix/land allocation
Make good the food deficit by importing from countries with
surplus, especially in the temperate region
Risks:
Cartelisation by countries with food surplus;
High food prices in the case of bad harvests/export
bans; and
Subsidies by governments of surplus producing
countries to keep land fallow in order to enhance
export revenues.
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Tacking food insecurity: Approach 2
Try to be self sufficient in staples by subsidising staple
production to counter the disincentive from decline in yield
Problem: Diversion of land from other uses becomes necessary
to meet staple food demand – lower net income from agricultural
activities
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Questions
Should we adopt Approach 1 or Approach 2?
What role does trade/trade negotiation have to play in each
case?
For example, import of cheap staples versus that of
climate friendly technologies
How are/is the risks/downside to be tackled in each
case?
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