Transcript Social Inventions

WMO: Coping with a changing climate
and the use of Social inventions
March 25, 2011
Geneva, Switzerland
Michael H. Glantz
Consortium for Capacity Building (CCB)
University of Colorado, Boulder
First thoughts
DRAFT as of February 8, 2011
Supported by the Rockefeller Foundation
and
A Clinton Global Initiative Commitment 2008
Planet Earth is now Global Warming’s “Ground zero”
no place to hide
 In industrial and
agrarian societies
(b)
(a)
(c)
 On all continents
 Where humans and
ecosystems meet
Seems governments
are choosing option (a)
 Especially in
vulnerable ecosystems
There are also inequities with regard to animals and other living things
We must account for climate-related EQUITY
“All roads lead to Rome”
“Render unto Caesar …”
• Often, damages to life and property
that occur during extreme events
are blamed on Nature.
• However, it is often not the case.
• A portion of those damages can be
placed on human activities that put
societies in harm’s way, and …
• We must sort out the proper
causes for the various damages, so
that appropriate responses can be
made to address those true causal
factors.
The Challenge: Reaching Every Element of Civil Society
Linking or Sinking
link scientific concerns about the future with local societal concerns today
Communicating with civil society
about the importance of awareness
of climate change and it foreseeable
impacts is a central factor in making
climate change science research
findings science that is usable by
society, eg, usable science
Social inventions
Ideas and concepts that
change human behavior.
What is a Social Invention?
A social invention is a new [concept], law,
organization or procedure that changes the
ways in which people relate to themselves
or to each other, either individually or
collectively.
Examples: Resilient adaptation, low-carbon society,
green Revolution, circle of poison, pathological
bureaucracy, virtual water, ecosystem goods and
services, tipping points, nature’s bank, blue carbon
sinks, clean coal, dead zones, CEPs, ripple effect,
climate refugees, win-win, zero sum game, drought
follows the plow, forecasting by analogy, green
economy, ignore-ance, satisfice,
Social Invention Examples
http://clairewaghorn.wordpress.com/
The Blue Marble
Global Change
Spaceship Earth
The Space Age
Social e-networks
Foreseeability
•
"FORESEEABLE RISK, i.e., risks whose consequences
a person of ordinary prudence would reasonably
expect might occur…
•
In tort law… a party's actions may be deemed
negligent only where the injurious consequences of
those actions were foreseeable."
•
For example, "established by proof that the actor or
person of reasonable intelligence and prudence,
should reasonably have anticipated danger to others
created by his or her negligent act.“
•
"Foreseeability encompasses not only that which
the defendant foresaw, but that which the
defendant ought to have foreseen."
Focus on AOCs
Not on Hotspots!
(Gifis, 1991)
HOTSPOTS Pyramid
Decisionmaking under foreseeability
To run or not to run a stop sign? That is the question.
Forecasting by analogy
climate-related impacts
• This method compares
events that have had a similar
effect in the recent past to the
likely impact of future events
associated with climate
change, assuming that lessons
can be learned from such past
experience and then applied
to future situations.
• These compared situations
can generally share several
important characteristics
such as time scale, severity,
reversibility, impacted sector,
or aggravating factors, and
point out how well actual
adaptation response worked
or did not work.
Definitions of adaptation
• UNFCCC: adaptation refers
to climate change related
impacts
– UNFCCC definition:
"adaptation" refers only
to new actions in
response to climate
changes that are
attributed to greenhouse
gas emissions.
• IPCC: adaptation refers to
any changes
Seasonality
global warming & “acclimatizing” seasons: Seasons aren’t what they used to be!
(as we’ve come to expect them)
Like ecosystems,
human activities are
also influenced by the
natural flow of the
seasons.
More so by humans,
because they have
expectations about that
flow that really
determine their
responses, good or bad,
to that natural flow.
Adaptation
{no recommendations without SWOC ramifications}
Recommendations are
just suggestions.
To increase the chance
they will be
implemented, it is
necessary to identify
the potential
consequences of not
acting on them.
We must consider
“mitigating the impacts of adaptation”
• Adaptation is an on-going process, not
just a one-time event.
• Each adaptive strategy or tactic will
generate its own set of impacts.
• Societies must identify second- and
third-order impacts of adaptation
(downstream impacts).
Some living things can’t adapt
Rates of change are as important as the change itself
2020 is the new 2050
The future is arriving …
earlier than expected!
Creeping environmental change
{Everything we touch}
Focus on creeping changes and rates
of change instead of searching for a
“dread factor” to spark policy
changes.
X
Rates of change can be as important as the magnitude of change
Ecosystems good & services …
for human well being
• The Millennium Assessment
calls for ecosystems goods
and services for
environmental well being.
• This suggests that
ecosystems have little value if
not of use to society.
• It should be reversed:
Human goods & services for
ecosystems well being.
• Societies need Ecosystems
more than they need
societies.
Social Dimension of Climate Change versus
Climate Dimension of Social Change:
what’s driving what?
Do you get the same answer?
• A popular phrase is “the
social dimension of climate
change.”
• Yet, society is also
changing and many aspects
of its changes affect the
global climate.
• As a result, I believe we
should use the phrase “the
climate dimension of social
change.”
Definitions of Resilience:
3 variations on a theme
• Ability … to withstand
the consequences.
• Power to recovery
original shape & size.
• Capacity to adapt
without harm.
We may not agree on what resilience is,
But we do know what it isn’t !
Dynamite
fishing
in the
Philippines
Defining resilient adaptation
A process that is a flexible,
incremental approach to
adjusting to and coping with
the foreseeable adverse (or
beneficial impacts) of an
uncertain changing climate.
………………
• Identify indicators to evaluate
a societal adaptation act or
process if it meets explicit
criteria that shows that the act
is resilient.
Resilient Adaptation
as a “social invention”
•
•
•
•
Flexible, shifting interventions
Plasticity
Requires innovation
Requires improvisation
•
•
It attempts to “glimpse” the future
It brings stability while coping with
changes in resilience
Ignorance vs. “Ignore-ance”
what you don’t know (or ignore) can still hurt you
• Ignorance is not
knowing something.
• “Ignore-ance” is
knowing something
and not caring about it
Which one is this?
wake up cat video
Early warnings about …
early warning systems
Climate is not the only thing that is changing
Shanghai Harbor
1988
2004
Storms in Space
no place on the planet to hide
Late Warning Systems are as important as
early warning systems
Escaping forest fire, Russia.
Facebook video
Improvization
Situational responses to a quick onset environmental change
Yangtze River Floods, 1999: Is this societal resilience?
This is improvization.
Lessons learned about lessons learned …
about the disasters
• After each disaster lessons are
identified and reported.
• Similar disasters also end up
with many of the earlier
identified lessons being restated.
• Lessons identified are not
lessons learned.
• The phrase lessons learned is
part of the problem because
people think someone is
applying the lessons but in
reality no one has the
responsibility to do so.
Isn’t Hindsight an aspect of Foresight?
The Question:
Does climate history have a
future?
The Answer:
Yes, if we want to know how
we got to this point in time
and to seek better informed
guidance in the face of an
uncertain and changing
climate future.
Climate-related ideas …
that demand better understanding
1.
Climate-proofing
2.
Food security
3.
Ground zero
4.
Deniers
5.
Extremes
6.
The verb “to be”
7.
Ecosystems goods & services
8.
Drivers (of change)
9.
Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions)
10. Adaptation (to climate change)
11. Geo-engineering
12. Purposely changing the atmosphere’s thermostat
My view on Climate-related ideas …
that demand better understanding
1.
Climate-proofing --- misleading
2.
Food security --- misnomer
3.
Ground zero --- misfocused
4.
Deniers --- misapplied
5.
Extremes --- misdirected
6.
The verb “is” --- misused
7.
Ecosystems goods & services --- misconception
8.
Drivers (of change) --- misdirecting
9.
Mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) --- misarticulated
10. Adaptation (to climate change) --- misunderstood
11. Geo-engineering --- misadventure
12. Purposely changing the atmosphere’s thermostat --- misguided
Many Plan B’s but there is no Planet B !!