Transcript Climate Change in the Great Lakes

Climate Change in the Great
Lakes
By: Colleen Nagel
http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/urgentissues/climatechange/index.htm
http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/
Outline
• Human Geography and Economy
• Climate Trends and Variability in the Great
Lakes Region
• Historical Records of Change: Lake
Temperature, Ice Cover, and Water Levels
• Projections of Future Climate in the Great
Lakes Region
• Climate Change and Waterborne Disease
• Conclusion
Background
• Heavy precipitation events are expected to increase with
climate change, and are directly connected to increases in
waterborne diseases (Kling et al. 2003).
• In urban watersheds, more than 60% of the annual loads of all
contaminants are transported during storm events, which are
caused by heavy rainfall (Kling et al 2003).
• Scenario-based modeling demonstrated how both land use
and climate change influenced the surrounding ecosystem
and species, effecting the watershed, discharge, and habitat
of the river (Wiley 2010).
Human Geography and Economy
• 60 million people live in the Great Lakes region; more
than 40 million people use the Great Lakes as a
drinking water source (Patz et al. 2008).
• In 2000 over 50% of manufacturing shipments in
Canada came from Ontario (Wiley et al. 2003).
• The 6 Great Lakes states make up >25% of total value
to U.S. manufacturing (Wiley et al. 2003).
Climate Trends and Variability in
the Great Lakes Region
• In 1999 over a 4-year
time span annual
average temperatures
2-4 ̊F warmer and 7 ̊F
above average winter
• Increase in precipitation
in last 3 decades
http://www.divinglore.com/Genesis/USA/Great_Lake
s_&_Inland_Sites.htm
Historical Records of Change: Lake
Temperature, Ice Cover, and Water Levels
• Lake Temperature: Lengthened summer
stratification
• Duration of lake ice: Freeze-up occurring later
in fall and ice-out earlier in the spring for the
past century
• Fall freeze 1.5 days later per decade
• Spring breakup earlier by 2 days per decade
• El Niño/La Niña
Climate Change and Waterborne Disease
Risk in the Great Lakes Region of the U.S.
By: Jonathan A. Patz, Stephen J. Vavrus, Christopher K. Uejio, and Sandra L. McLellan
• 60 million people live in the Great Lakes
region; more than 40 million people use the
Great Lakes as a drinking water source
• Climate change is expected to cause a rise in
sea level, increase in temperatures, and
changes in the hydrologic cycle, which can
cause more floods and droughts
Global Climate Models
(Patz et al. 2008)
Heavy Daily Precipitation
(Patz et al. 2008)
• Heavy daily
precipitation 1-5 cm
• Time frame of late 20th
century to late 21st
century
• Model was made from
historical relationship
from Global Climate
Models and daily
precipitation levels from
a local scale
Case Study
• Milwaukee River Basin: 1,440km² of rural,
agricultural, suburban, and urban land use.
• Basin’s watersheds drain into 3 major rivers
and discharge into Lake Michigan
• E. coli is used as an indicator bacteria
• Storm events >3in of rainfall within 24 hrs.
may overwhelm the combined sewer systems
and lead to overflow
Levels of E. coli in Milwaukee
Estuary
(Patz et al. 2008)
Lake Geneva, Wisconsin
(Patz et al. 2008)
http://www.maps.google.com
Surveillance of Indicator Bacteria
• Wind direction toward
or away from the beach
influences indicator
bacteria
• Tidal cycles from
subsurface and soil
reservoirs
• Precipitation and runoff
events
http://gardenofeaden.blogspot.com/2011/06/what-is-ecoli.html
Conclusion of paper
• Data
collection/surveillance
• Infrastructure
improvements
• Land use planning
• Education and
research
Projections of Future Climate in the Great
Lakes Region
• By 2025-2035 temperatures will increase by 34 ̊F in spring and summer
• 10-20% increase in precipitation by the end of
the century
• Migrating climates
Conclusions
•
•
•
•
•
Increase in temperatures
Decrease in the duration of ice cover
Migrating climate
Increase in precipitation
Changes in hydrologic cycle
References
• Kling, George W., Katharine Hayhoe, Lucinda B. Johnson, John J.
Magnuson, Stephen Polasky, Scott K. Robinson, Brian J. Shuter,
Michelle M. Wander, Donald J. Wuebbles, and Donald R. Zak.
Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on
Our Communities and Ecosystems. Cambridge, MA: Union of
Concerned Scientists, (2003). Print.
• Patz, Jonathan A., Stephen J. Vavrus, Christopher K. Uejio, and Sandra L.
McLellan. "Climate Change and Waterborne Disease Risk in the
Great Lakes Region of the U.S." American Journal of Preventive
Medicine 35.5 (2008): 451-58. Print.
• Wiley, M. J., D. W. Hyndman, B. C. Pijanowski, A. D. Kendall, C. Riseng, E. S.
Rutherford, S.T. Cheng, M. L. Carlson, J. A. Tyler, R. J. Stevenson, P. J.
Steen, P. L. Richards, P. W. Seelbach, J. M. Koches, and R. R. Rediske.
"A Multi-modeling Approach to Evaluating Climate and Land Use
Change Impacts in a Great Lakes River Basin." Hydrobiologia
657.1 (2010): 243-62.