Transcript THE CLIMATE SEVERITY INDEX FOR CANADA

Climate Scenarios and Water Projects at the
Canadian Institute for Climate Studies
Trevor Murdock, M.Sc.
[email protected]
Canadian Institute for Climate Studies
19 November 2004
Outline
1. Canadian Institute for Climate Studies
•
BC Water Model Project
2. Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios
Project
•
Scenarios for water and hydrology
3. Summary
Canadian Institute for Climate Studies
www.cics.uvic.ca
• 1993 Meteorological Service of Canada and Province of BC
launch CICS to:
– “further the understanding of the climate system, its
variability and potential for change and to further the
application of that understanding to decision making in
both the public and private sectors.”
• 1994-2001 Climate Research Network
– replaced by Canadian Foundation for Climate and
Atmospheric Sciences
Canadian Institute for Climate Studies
• 1995-present Climate Applications Projects:
– Climate Severity Index, Environmental Indicators for
BC (Province) and Canada (Canadian Ministers of the
Environment), Industry (Forestry, Natural Gas,
Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency), Regional
Districts, ClimExec, Outreach and Education (C-CIARN
BC, BC Climate Exchange, Royal BC Museum), Water
Balance (BC)
• 1995-present Seasonal Climate Predictions
• 1995-present Climate Network Newsletter
• 1999-present CCIS Scenarios Project
BC Water Balance Model
http://www.waterbalance.ca
• Watershed-based approach that integrates the
natural and built environments
• User-friendly online model to inform and
evaluate land use planning decisions’ ability to
meet stormwater management objectives, at
the scale of the individual development site and
the watershed.
http://www.waterbalance.ca
• Low impact development involves reducing
impacts of stormwater runoff using various
"source controls“ whose effectiveness varies with
design, precipitation patterns, soil type, among
other factors.
• Overall performance of source controls of interest
to developers, homeowners & local gov’t.
• Canadian Institute for Climate Studies worked
with BC Water Balance Model to provide option to
include information from scenarios of future
climate over the next century
Canadian Climate Impacts & Scenarios
Project - Brief History
www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios
• Launched in 1999 by Adaptation and Impacts
Research Group of EC
• Staff:
– Dr. Elaine Barrow Co-Principal Investigator (AIRG, Regina)
– Dr. Philippe Gachon Co-principal Investigator (AIRGOuranos, Montreal)
– Trevor Murdock Senior Research Associate & Webmaster
(CICS, Victoria)
– AIRG provides project direction and support staff
– CICS & Ouranos provide support staff
Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios
Project - Brief History
www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios
• To encourage the use of a consistent set of climate
change scenarios by the VIA research community in
Canada:
– provide national consistent climate change scenarios from
several GCMs over Canada and North America following IPCC
guidelines
– background information, tools, user assistance, training,
workshops
– promote nationally-consistent framework for scenario
development
– develop and maintaining a capacity to support VI&A research
– involve scenario user groups in scenarios development
Currently over 800 registered users,
March 2002 largest sector was water
General
Hydrology/water
Meteorology
Agriculture
Forestry
Geography
Transportation
Economics
Fisheries
Usage statistics for 2002-Feb 2004
Avg ~20-30,000 page views per month
Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios
Project - Future Plans
• Current funding ends March 2005.
• Seeking government & industry consortium
funding to expand:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Paleoclimate
Extremes
Observations
Indices
Downscaling tools
Training
International collaboration
Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios
Project - Interface
www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios
Summary
• Institute
– Individual projects
• Scenarios website
– Online resources
– Research into use of scenarios
• Water is one of the major sectors
interested in using climate information