Transcript Slide 1

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN INDIA- A
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS ON IMPACT
AJAY SINGH, ANAND PATWARDHAN, ABHIJAT
ABHYANKAR and NANDLAL SARDA
Presentation
• Introduction
• Importance of EXTREMES in changing
climate
• Data and Methodology
• Findings
• Conclusions
Introduction
• Climate change may be perceived most through the
impacts of extremes, although these are to a large
degree dependent on the system under consideration,
including its vulnerability, resiliency and capacity for
adaptation and mitigation
• As climate continues to warm, it is expected that many
forms of extreme events may also increase, because of
the thermal energy
• With the exception of earthquakes, extreme climate
events take the heaviest toll on human life and exert
some of the highest damage costs related to natural
hazards.
Global Warming
•
According to the
recent IPCC
report, the mean
global surface
temperature has
increased by
0.74OC over the
last 100 years
(1906-2005)
•
11 of the 12
warmest years
have been
recorded in the
past 12 years
Findings of the IPCC Assessment Report
(2007)
• There has been a significant decline in the mountain glaciers and
snow cover, which has contributed to the increased sea levels
• From 1961 to 2003, the global mean sea level rose by 1.8 (+0.5)
mm per year
• The global temperature of the oceans increased by 0.10oC from
surface to depth of 700m from 1961- 2003 and 80% of the heat
added to the climate system is being absorbed by the ocean
• Other long term climatic changes that have been observed include
extreme droughts, intensity of tropical cyclones, changes in the
salinity of the ocean and wind patterns
Climate change
may entail
changes in
variance as
well as
changes in
mean
Data and Methodology
•Data on flood, tropical cyclone, heat wave, cold
wave also gale, squall, lightning, duststorm,
hailstorm and thunderstorm
•From India Meteorological Department
•Damage data include information about mortality,
persons affected, village affected, crops affected
and total economic loss
•The impact data have been grouped into spatial
resolution at state level.
•This state level information have been analyzed
for trend and other descriptive statistics.
Significant
increase in
events
Also significant
increase in annual
mortality (even if
ignoring 1971 and
1999 values)
Trend in occurrence of climate extremes
Event
Except cyclone and gale
all the events are
significantly increasing
Number
Trend
(occurrence/y)
p-value
cold wave
0.29
0.00
cyclone
-0.04
0.08
dust storm
0.17
0.00
flood
3.42
0.00
gale
0.12
0.25
hail storm
1.00
0.00
heat wave
0.55
0.00
lightning
2.75
0.00
squall
0.35
0.00
thunder storm
1.90
0.00
Trend in mortality due to climate extremes
Event
Dust storm, flood,
hailstorm, lightning and
thunderstorm depict
significant increasing
trends
Cold wave
Cyclone
Dust storm
Flood
Gale
Hail storm
Heat wave
Lightning
Squall
Thunder Storm
Impact
Trend
(person/y)
5.55
-7.58
0.92
40.25
0.09
1.27
7.77
7.36
0.23
5.07
p-value
0.06
0.81
0.03
0
0.72
0
0.16
0
0.12
0
Leading states in the extreme events by number and mortality
Leading States
Extreme Event
No. of Event Mortality
cold wave
BR
BR
cyclone
AP
OR
dust storm
UP
UP
flood
MH
UP
gale
KL
OR
hail storm
MH
BR
heat wave
RJ
AP
lightning
MH
MH
squall
AS
WB
thunder storm
WB
WB
Total events
MH
OR
Total and normalized mortality due to climate extremes
Conclusions
Major share of occurrence of climate extremes is
due to floods; and cyclone which has most
devastating impact has least share.
Total number of climate extremes considered in the
study is significantly increasing in India.
Except cyclone and gale all the extremes depict
significant increasing trend.
Maharashtra is the leading state in total number of
events and floods while Rajasthan, Bihar and
Andhra Pradesh are leading in heat wave, cold wave
and cyclone respectively.
Conclusions (cont.)
•Almost all the states depict increasing trends in
heatwave and flood occurrences.
•Assessment of occurrence of the climate extremes
needs more spatio-temporal details for the study and
formulation of policy for impact, vulnerability and
adaptation of climate sensitive sectors and regions.
Conclusions (cont.)
•Developing countries such as India have low
adaptive capacity to withstand the adverse impacts
of climate change due to the high dependence of a
majority of the population on climate-sensitive
sectors, such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries,
coupled with poor infrastructure facilities, weak
institutional mechanisms and lack of financial
resources.
•India is therefore, seriously concerned with the
possible impacts of climate change.
•The assessment of climate change impacts, and
vulnerability and adaptation to climate change,
require a wide range of physical, biological and
socioeconomic models, methods, tools and data.
Conclusions (cont.)
•The methods for assessing the vulnerability, impact
and adaptation are gradually improving, but are still
inadequate to help policy-makers formulate
appropriate adaptation measures.
•Policy-makers must formulate plans to turn
disasters into opportunities
•The response to natural disasters, must be for
changing underlying conditions for the better, rather
than focusing on a superficial rebuilding of what
existed before.
•The underlying problems of poverty, poor
construction and lack of economic security need to
be addressed more comprehensively.
Thank You!