Transcript COOL Climate OptiOns for the Long term

The COOL project
Introduction & Outcomes
Willemijn Tuinstra
Wageningen University, The Netherlands
IHDP Open Science Meeting Rio de Janeiro 2001
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
COOL Facts
• Part of the Dutch National Research Programme on
Global Air Pollution and Climate Change
• January 1999-July 2001
• Joint effort by an interdisciplinary team of several
institutions: Institute for Environmental Studies, VU
Amsterdam; National Institute of Public health and
the Environment (RIVM), Wageningen University,
Utrecht University, Ecofys, Netherlands Energy
Foundation and others.
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
COOL Goals
• Supporting the development of long-term climate
policy in the Netherlands in a European and Global
context.
Aspects
-Stakeholder participation -->Sectordialogues
-From "Future Visions" to strategic Sector Plans, making
use of “Backcasting”
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Main Features of COOL
• Long term (2050) and radical reductions
(-80%)
- Climate policy strategy needs long term vision
- Far reaching reductions are needed (structural change)
- Long term visions have short term implications
• User driven: dialogue setting
• Back-casting approach
• Three levels: National, European, Global
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Three Dialogues
• National Dialogue
- 4 sector groups:Buildings, Energy/Industry,
Transport, Food production
• European Dialogue
- 2 sector groups: Energy/Industry, Transport
• Global Dialogue
- 1 group: Negotiators & NGO's involved in the UNFCCC
process
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Back-casting vs forecasting
• Problem in need of
solution
• Broad scope for human
choice
• Analyse conditions for
futures to materialise
• Broad array of methods
• Stimulates creativity
• Dominant trends; likely
futures
• Narrow focus on
changing trends
• Sensitivity analysis for
dominant variables
• Strongly mathematical
model oriented
• Risk of extrapolating
trends
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Back-casting in COOL
• Constructing visions of long-term future (e.g. low GHG
future or climate targets)
• Construction of pathways to establish the vision
 Future history writing (how do we get to vision)
 Mile stones/accomplishments that have to be made
 Identifying barriers and opportunities
• Designing of strategies (e.g. for emission reduction)
 How to deal with barriers and how to make use of
opportunities
 Formulating conditions
 Evaluating options and short-term actions
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
National Dialogue
• Sector group participants from private sector,
environmental organisations, trade unions, local govt
and national govt; independent chair
• Each sector group met ca. 6 times
• Starting point were 2 alternative “Low GHG Visions”
for 2050, developed by the scientific support team
• Back-casting: develop strategic plans identifying
feasible options and conditions to be fulfilled
• Products:
• Sector “plans”
• Recommendations for Dutch Climate Policy Strategy
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
European dialogue
• Participants from private sector, environmental
groups, European Commission, national governments
• Two sector groups met 4 times during 4 workshops
• Starting point were “Low GHG Visions” for 2050
• Linking long term EU sector strategies to long term
EU Climate Policy
• Back-casting approach
• Products: feasible options for long term policy and conditions that are to be
fulfilled
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Global dialogue
• 4 meetings with one group; participants involved in
UNFCCC process from governments, environmental
groups, industry
• Long-term issues related to ultimate objective of
Climate Convention (stabilisation of GHG
concentrations)
• Back-casting: evaluate short and medium term
implications (Kyoto +“second commitment period”)
• Products:
– feasible approaches to consensus building on long
term issues
– (computer) tools to facilitate decision making
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Conclusions NL
• –80% technological feasible
• doubts about feasibility without causing or
increasing other societal problems
• societal, political, institutional and
psychological barriers
• major technological breakthroughs are
needed
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Conclusions Europe
• 80% reduction is technically feasible in 50 years
• Major bottlenecks: institutions, prices, behavioral
changes, enlarging the EU
• Initial efforts have started in oil companies, car
manufacturers, electricity producers
• EU need a long term vision
• Mechanisms for leap-frogging of accession countries
needed
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Conclusions Global
Conditions for change:
•
•
•
•
•
A broad public awareness of the climate change problem and a belief that there
are feasible, acceptable and affordable solutions.
Clear and effective global and national climate policies, providing incentives to
companies and consumers giving a price to carbon emissions, both national and
international.
Developed countries will have to show the way, by developing and implementing
new technologies (e.g. fuel cell car, PV) and adjustment of lifestyles.
Wide scale and effective transfer / diffusion of modern technological knowledge
to developing countries and integration of climate policies into sustainable
development.
Some support to fossil fuel dependent developing countries to restructure their
economies, develop new energy resources and technologies and to soften the
regional consequences of reduced fossil fuel production.
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
More information
• Http://www.wau.nl/cool
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001
Teamwork
Bridging the gap
between science
and policy together!
That’s COOL!
IHDP Open Science Meeting, 6-8
October 2001