Transcript Slide 1
Incorporating climate change into restoration planning Tim Beechie NOAA Fisheries, Seattle The ESA salmon context • ESA legal context – Salmon recovery planning and climate change – Consultations and climate change • NOAA science efforts address: – Vulnerability of populations – How do we adapt restoration plans and actions to be successful despite climate change? Adaptation: decision support framework • Q1: What habitats limit salmon recovery? • Q2: Does climate change alter habitats limiting recovery? • Q3: Does the restoration plan reduce climate change effects? • Q4: Does the restoration plan increase habitat diversity and salmon resilience? Watershed assessment Landscape processes Humans How have habitats changed and altered biota? Habitat conditions Salmon Watershed assessment What are the root causes of habitat change? Landscape processes Humans Habitat conditions How have habitats changed and altered biota? Salmon The restoration plan • A restoration plan should: – Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines – Generate a list of needed restoration actions – Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population Beechie et al. 2013 The restoration plan • A restoration plan should: – Identify causes of habitat and salmon declines – Generate a list of needed restoration actions – Determine which restoration actions are most important to recovery of the salmon population Beechie et al. 2013 Climate change assessment How does climate change affect all of this? Landscape processes Climate change Habitat conditions How have habitats changed and altered biota? Salmon Summer rearing sensitivity <10°C 10-14°C 14-18°C 18-22°C 22-26°C 26-30°C >30°C Below threshold Near threshold Above threshold Ameliorating climate change effects • Literature review to see if restoration actions can: – Reduce a peak flow effect? – Reduce a low flow effect? – Reduce a stream temperature effect? Beechie et al. 2012 Increasing resilience • Literature review to see if restoration actions can: – Increase habitat and species diversity so the ecosystem can better withstand climate change effects? Beechie et al. 2012 Increase habitat diversity Groundwater channel Mainstem habitats only Pond Mainstem Levee Waples et al. 2009 Flood refuge Side-channel Restoration actions and climate change Restoration action Temperature increase Low flow decrease Peak flow increase Increase resilience Longitudinal connectivity Y Y N Y Floodplain connectivity Y N Y Y Restore incised channel Y Y Y Y Restore in-stream flow Y Y N N/Y Riparian rehabilitation Y N/Y N N Sediment reduction N N N N In-stream habitat N N N N Nutrient enrichment N N N N Restoration actions and climate change Restoration action Temperature increase Low flow decrease Peak flow increase Increase resilience Longitudinal connectivity Y Y N Y Floodplain connectivity Y N Y Y Restore incised channel Y Y Y Y Restore in-stream flow Y Y N N/Y Riparian rehabilitation Y N/Y N N Sediment reduction N N N N In-stream habitat N N N N Nutrient enrichment N N N N Closing points Q1: Identifying the most important restoration actions is critical for cost-effective restoration Q2: Climate change may alter the importance of key restoration actions Q3: Many restoration actions can reduce climate change effects on stream flow or temperature Q4: More connectivity and more dynamics are important for ecosystem resilience to climate change