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Emerging Trends and Risk Hotspots Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots Andrew Hartley Dr. Andrew Thow Prof. Alyson Warhurst November 2008 Produced by Produced by Andrew Hartley [email protected] Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Maplecroft • Risk advisory to NGOs, governments and business • Work in partnership with our clients • Academic rigour and methodologies Building capacity based on best practice standards Address concerns and expectations of stakeholders Creativity in presentation and delivery A multi-cultural team of over 30 professionals Proven track record of projects with blue-chip corporations, UN organisations and NGOs. Experience in sectors including humanitarian, retail, mining, energy, banking, technology, logistics, transportation, ICTs Long-established relationships and advisory to key clients • Risk, Responsibility and Reputation Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Climate change and human vulnerability: Mapping emerging trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian actors Dr Andrew Thow, Prof. Alyson Warhurst, and Mark deBlois March 2008 In collaboration with CARE International, 7-9 Chemin de Balexert, 1219 Chatelaine, Geneva, Switzerland Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Climate Change and Humanitarian Risk Hotspots • Recent history of natural disasters • How is the climate predicted to change? • How do we assess risk? • Assessing current humanitarian risk hotspots: a GIS approach • Implications for humanitarian organisations • What measures can be taken to mitigate against these risks? Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Recent history of natural disasters • • • • • During 2005 and 2006, natural disasters killed 120,000 people - 271 million affected - $250 billion in economic losses Human and economic costs are increasing 97% of disaster related deaths occur in developing countries Economic losses as % of GDP are heaviest in lower income countries Potential to have a significant impact on achieving Millennium Development Goals Knowledge still poor about contributing factors especially where global risks conflate e.g. climate change; water, food and energy security; health; education, financial inclusion Produced by Produced by 3 2.5 Billions of People • 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1984-1993 1994-2003 Period Number of people affected by natural disasters is increasing. (source: World Bank, 2006. Hazards of Nature, Risks to Development) Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only How do we assess risk? Hazard Flood Cyclone Drought • • Vulnerability + Natural, human, social, financial, physical Risk = Flood risk hotspots Cyclone risk hotspots Drought risk hotspots Impact of a humanitarian disaster is related to the degree of exposure to a particular hazard, and Vulnerability of a population is determined by a range of social, economic, political and environmental factors (e.g. poverty, governance, conflict, urbanisation, resource security, climate change etc.) Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Assessing Risk: A GIS Approach Hazards Group Theme Temperature trends Projected trends Precipitation trends Produced by Produced by Areas projected to temperature increase Areas projected to undergo change in precipitation Future scenarios Source(s) Year yes IPCC, WBGU, MPI Various yes IPCC, WBGU, MPI 20802099 Floods Distribution of flood mortality risk Change in extreme precipitation qualitative yes Tropical cyclones Distribution of cyclone mortality risk Distribution of tropical storm tracks qualitative Drought Distribution of drought mortality risk Change in maximum dry periods Future dynamics of drought risk qualitative yes yes Group 1 Hazards Current climate hazards GIS Layer IRICS (Columbia University), Dartmouth Flood Observatory , UNEP/GRID, EM-DAT, MPI. Hadley IRICS (Columbia University), Dartmouth Flood Observatory , UNEP/GRID, EM-DAT, MPI. Hadley IRICS (Columbia University), Dartmouth Flood Observatory , UNEP/GRID, EM-DAT, MPI. Hadley 2005 20712100 2005 2005 20712100 20412070 Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Temperature trends Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Precipitation trends • In a warmer climate, global average precipitation will increase by ~ 1-2% per degree of warming How is the climate predicted to change? • Dotted areas denote >90% agreement between models • Considerable changes are likely, but in many significant regions, models do not agree Projected changes using A1B scenario for the period 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999. (source IPCC after Tebaldi et al) Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Current Climatic Hazards Source: Dilley et al. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A global risk analysis. World Bank and Colombia University, 2005 Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Current Climatic Hazards Global Warming Art, 2008. http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Tropical_Storm_Map_png Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Assessing Risk: A GIS Approach Vulnerability Group Theme Natural Physical Agricultural suitability Agricultural suitability for combination of staple crops no Land degradation Distribution of soil degradation no ISRICI 2005 Distribution of mortality rate infants no CIESIN 2000 Distribution of child malnutrition no CIESIN 2002 Human development index National index for HIV, TB, malaria, malnutrition no 2008 Governance National index no Conflict risk National index Forward looking Displacement National index no GDP Sub national GDP no Road infrastructure Market accessibility no UNDP WHO, UNAIDS, Maplecroft World Bank, OCHA Global Focus Model ICG, Uppsala University, Maplecroft UNHCR, Maplecroft CIESIN, World Bank, CIA Fact book VMAP0 Digital Chart of the World Road coverage National index no Telecommunication Produced by Produced by WWDRII, IPCC AR4, FAO, Alcamo FAO GAEZ, GLC 2000, IPCC WGII Year qualitative Health Financial Source(s) Distribution of water stress Human Social Future scenarios Water availability Poverty Group 2 Vulnerability GIS Layer National index no IRF 2007 2000 2007 2007 2007 2007 2006 1997 20002005 World Bank no Development Indicators 2007 Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only (WDI) Overall Human Vulnerability Overall human vulnerability based on a combination of natural, human, social, financial and physical factors Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Overall Human Vulnerability: Analysis and limitations Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Sudden Onset Hazards: Flood Risk Hotspots • Intensity and duration of droughts is likely to increase • Areas affected are also likely to expand Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Sudden Onset Hazards : Cyclone Risk Hotspots • Intensity and frequency of cyclones is likely to increase, due to rising sea surface temperatures • Projections of future distributions of cyclones from GCMs are very uncertain Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Slow Onset Hazards : Drought • Intensity and duration of droughts is likely to increase • Spatial distribution of droughts is unlikely to change significantly in the next 30 years Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only All Hazards Hotspots Combined Map showing cumulative humanitarian risk hotspots for all three climate-related hazards studied – floods, cyclones and drought. Areas at risk for more than one type of hazard are considered to be of most concern for humanitarian actors. Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Risk Hotspots and Population Density Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Risk Hotspots and Population Density Change Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Key findings and the road ahead Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Key findings 1. The spatial distribution of humanitarian risks from flooding, cyclones and drought will remain largely the same in the future 2. Current areas of humanitarian focus remain critical 3. Sudden onset events are likely to be more frequent and have greater impact 4. Human Vulnerability - most important factor in determining the impact of future events 5. South East Africa and South and South East Asia are likely to suffer from an intensification of multiple hazards 6. Climate change impacts on humanitarian risks are likely to be further impacted by risk of conflict, particularly around areas of high water and food insecurity 7. Efforts should be focused on reducing human vulnerability and on improving the ability of communities to adapt to even small changes in climate as they occur 8. By understanding the patterns of different global risks we can get a more accurate understanding of current risk hot spots and emerging trends Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only Thank you... For more information please visit www.global-risks.com ... Or contact me directly Andrew Hartley [email protected] Produced by Produced by Note: Information in this presentation is anonymous and for demonstration purposes only