Transcript Document

Saint Petersburg Meeting
February 8 – 9, 2012
ЛОПР: ограничить ущерб от опасных природных
явлений на побережье
NRAL: to limit damages from natural hazards
at the coast
Peter Koltermann
Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory NRAL, Faculty of Geography,
Moscow State University
Global hydrological cycle: small is not insignificant for extremes
Goals and Objectives




To undertake comprehensive research which will
identify and fill the gaps in our understanding of the
nature and impact of extreme events in the coastal
zones
To identify the mechanisms driving the intensity of
extreme hazardous events in the coastal zones in
European Russia
To identify regions most at risk of compound events
To provide risk assessments of these extremes
under climate change scenarios
Expected results
 Regional assessment of long-term variability and trends in extreme events
over coastal zones of European Russia in the instrumental period, present
transitional, and future climates;
 Quantitative analysis of the regional and large scale mechanisms driving
coastal hazards in a changing climate, including storm surges, extreme sea
levels, hydrometeorolgical hazards (floods), soil conditions and
groundwater storage;
 Quantitative estimates of changes in coastal environment, geochemistry,
water quantity and quality (implying, in turn, limits of the amounts of
drinkable water) under changing climate conditions over European coastal
zones due to the impact of hydrometerological hazards;
 Regional measures of risk to environment, water resources and their
management (such as potential limits of water availability), life conditions,
marine structures and economy under climate change for selected coastal
areas in European Russia.
Terminology
Терминология
• Hazard: threat
Опасное явление: угроза
• Risk: how much the threat can affect me
Риск: какова угроза для меня
• Vulnerability: how much am I protected from the
hazard ?
Уязвимость: насколько я защищен от опасности?
• Preparedness: what can I do to reduce my
vulnerability ?
Готовность: что я могу сделать, чтобы уменьшить
мою уязвимость?
Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty
of Geography, MSU, Moscow
Hazards, Extreme Events, Risks
• Hazards: exceptional natural events
– Storms, waves, storm surges, sea ice, flooding
• Extreme events
– Deviations from the normal variance, rare, infrequent
• Threat
– Danger for people, development, infrastructure,
investment
• Risks
– Potential to cause damage, severe impact
• Vulnerability
– Status of protection from threat Vulnerability
• “Low probability – high impact”
Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty
of Geography, MSSU, Moscow
Elements of Risk: Hazard,
Vulnerability, Preparedness
Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty
of Geography, MSU, Moscow
Juan Carlos de Villagran
Risk Assessment
• Quantify the hazard Hj
• Quantify the vulnerability Vj
• Estimate the Risk Rj
• Risk
Ri,…,j = Vi,…j x
Hi,…,j
• Hazard and Risk Mapping
• Evaluate and interpret both kind of maps
Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty
of Geography, MSU, Moscow
Vegetation mapping in the Astrakhan Nature Reserve area of the Volga delta records the
rapid shoreline changes during sea level fall and more moderate infill during sea level
rise over the last century (Overeem et al. 2003a, 2003b).
Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty
of Geography, MSU, Moscow
Changes in the duration of European wet periods
normalized occurrence anomalies
fraction of wet days due to wet spells (%)
duration of wet spells (days)
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
a
0
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
ocurrence of wet spells (%)
-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
c
b
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
years linear trend in the fracion of wet days
-2.0
0.00.10.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
1.4
1.8
0.6
1.0
2.0
-1.4-1.0-0.8
-2.0-1.8-1.6
-1.8-1.4-1.2
-1.0-0.6-0.4
-0.6-0.1-0.2
0.2
It is not the effect of changing
number of wet days!!!
Net effect of the number of wet days
(Monte-Carlo simulation of the growing
number of wet days, % per decade)
1%
2%
3%
0.17±0.10 0.31±0.19 0.47±0.25
Linear trend in the WP duration: 1950-2008
Zolina et al. 2010,
Geophys. Res. Lett.
Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011
Methodology
f x ( x)
Historical Data Bases
z  g ( x)
fZ ( z)
Coastal impacts
Hazard - Uncertainty
R
Risk
Assessment
E( z)
Exposure
risk
V ( z)
Vulnerability
exposure
The “risk triangle” after Crichton (1999)

R


Castaneda
f Z ( z )E ( z )V ( z )dz,
To do
• Develop standards for risk evaluation
• Hazards do not stop at a border
– Standardize terminology, exchange of data and
information
• Close co-operation with all partners
– Authorities, agencies, private stakeholders,
science
• Integrate Risk Assessment into planning and
operation
• Money spent on early risk consideration is
well spent. Much less than cleaning up
AFTER a disaster strikes
Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty
of Geography, MSSU, Moscow
Для этого
• Разработка стандартов для оценки рисков
• Опасные явления не останавливаются на
границе
– стандартизация терминологии, обмен
данными и информацией
• Тесное сотрудничество со всеми партнерами
– органами власти, учреждениями, частными
заинтересованными лицами, наукой
• Интегрирование оценки рисков в планирование и
эксплуатацию
• Деньги, потраченные на заблаговременное
рассмотрение риска, потрачены не зря. Это
гораздо меньше, чем затраты ПОСЛЕ стихийного
бедствия
Peter Koltermann, NRAL, Faculty
of Geography, MSSU, Moscow
Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011
Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011,
Tohoku tsunami, 11 March 2011, Shin-shi railway station,
Structual damage Ying Xiu, WENCHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE OF 12 MAY 2008
z = x1 + x2 + x3 + x4
Flooding level= MSL+ astronomical tide+ storm surge+ wave run-up
parallel isobaths (Snell’s law) + Stockdon et al. (2006)
500 years return level (m)
f z (z)
Castaneda
Long-term trend of annual maxima of flooding
level (cm/year)
f ' z (z)