Transcript Securing America’s Passenger Rail Systems

Water Management and
Climate Change in the USMexico Border Region
Robert Lempert
Senior Scientist
RAND
September 27, 2008
Climate Change Poses Significant Challenge for
Resource Planning the US-Mexico Border Region
• “Stationarity is dead”
– Many organizations already include climate (often implicitly) in
their decisions
– Amidst all the uncertainty one thing we do know for sure -tomorrow’s climate will not be like the past’s
• Changes in West are likely to include:
– Increased temperatures
– Changes in precipitation patterns
– More intense storms
– Declining snow pack and summertime river flows
• Without proper planning:
– Supply expectations may not be met
– Demand may grow faster than can be accommodated
– Infrastructure may fail
climate -
Planners in S. California, for Instance, Face a
Range of Possible Future Climate Conditions
Summer-time temperature change
(2000- 2030)
No change
Hotter
Likely range
0
+.1C
+2.1C
Winter-time precipitation change
(2000 - 2030)
Much drier
Wetter
Likely range
-19%
0
+8%
Results based on statistical summary of 21 of the world’s best
Global Climate Models
Water managers also face many similar, if not
more, disruptive uncertainties
climate -
Our Work With California Water Agencies Suggests
Lessons for US-Mexico Border Region
• Resource managers can no longer assume future
climate will be like the past
• Despite deep uncertainty, sufficient information
exists to support prudent action today
• Effective response options are available
• Legislatures may have to help ensure:
– Access to appropriate data and information
– Funding for demonstration projects and new infrastructure
– Appropriate incentives and perhaps some regulatory
changes
climate -
Conducted Vulnerability and Options Analysis
for Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA)
– IEUA currently serves 800,000
people
• May add 300,000 by 2025
– Water presents a significant
challenge
climate -
Conducted Vulnerability and Options Analysis
for Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA)
– IEUA currently serves 800,000
people
• May add 300,000 by 2025
– Water presents a significant
challenge
– Current water sources include:
• Groundwater
56%
• Imports
32%
• Recycled
1%
• Surface
8%
• Desalter
2%
climate -
Conducted Vulnerability and Options Analysis
for Inland Empire Utilities Agency (IEUA)
– IEUA currently serves 800,000
people
• May add 300,000 by 2025
– Water presents a significant
challenge
– Current water sources include:
• Groundwater 56%
• Imports
32%
• Recycled
1%
• Surface
8%
• Desalter
2%
Focus of IEUA’s 20 year plan
climate -
Our Research Focused on Two Key Questions
• Are IEUA’s plans vulnerable to assumptions about
uncertain future conditions, including climate
change?
• Which actions should IEUA do now and which can
they defer to later to address the threat of climate
change?
climate -
We Identified Three Types of Assumptions That
Could Impact the Performance of IEUA Plans
Natural
Processes
Performance of
Management
Strategies
Costs of Future
Supplies and
Management
Activities
• Future temperatures
• Future precipitation
• Changes in groundwater processes
• Development of aggressive waste-water
recycling program
• Implementation of groundwater replenishment
• Imported supplies
• Water use efficiency
climate -
We Identified Three Types of Assumptions That
Could Impact the Performance of IEUA Plans
Natural
Processes
Performance of
Management
Strategies
Costs of Future
Supplies and
Management
Activities
• Future temperatures
• Future precipitation
• Changes in groundwater processes
• Development of aggressive waste-water
recycling program
• Implementation of groundwater replenishment
• Imported supplies
• Water use efficiency
climate -1
We Identified Three Types of Assumptions That
Could Impact the Performance of IEUA Plans
Natural
Processes
Performance of
Management
Strategies
Costs of Future
Supplies and
Management
Activities
• Future temperatures
• Future precipitation
• Changes in groundwater processes
• Development of aggressive waste-water
recycling program
• Implementation of groundwater replenishment
• Imported supplies
• Water use efficiency
climate -1
IEUA Faces a Wide Range of
Possible Future Climate Conditions
Summer-time temperature change
(2000- 2030)
No change
Hotter
Likely range
0
+.1C
+2.1C
Winter-time precipitation change
(2000 - 2030)
Much drier
Wetter
Likely range
-19%
0
+8%
climate -1
Our Simulation Model Assessed Performance of
IEUA Plans in Different Future States of World
IEUA Plans
Performance
of plans
Model
System data & climate forecasts
Scenario B
Plan suffers shortages in
adverse future climate
400
400
350
350
Surplus
300
Imports
250
200
Local Supplies
150
Groundwater
100
50
0
2005
2015
2020
Year
2025
Temp: +0.7oC Precip: +3%
2030
Shortage
Dry-year yield
Surplus
300
Imports
250
200
Local Supplies
150
100
Groundwater
50
Recycled
2010
Annual supply (taf)
Annual supply (taf)
Scenario A
Plan generates surpluses in
benign future climate
0
2005
Recycled
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Year
Temp: +1.6oC Precip: -10%
climate -1
IEUA’s Ability to Implement Its Plan and The
Agency’s Future Costs are Also Uncertain
• Estimates of agency’s likelihood of
achieving its recycling and ground
water goals
• Future costs of alternative sources
of supply
Shortages
1,860
Desalted groundwater
Imported (Tier 2)
Imported replenishment
Imported (Tier 1)
Recycled replenishment
Groundwater
Cost component
Storm-water replenishment
Recycled
Saved through efficiency
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Levelizedcosts for 2005 and 2015 ($ per af)
climate -1
Simulation Suggests that Climate Change
Exacerbates Other Risks to IEUA’s Plan
Ran simulation 1,000 times
for many different
combinations of uncertain
factors
In 656 cases IEUA’s
plan has low cost
In 344 cases IEUA’s
plan has high cost
What factors explain these high cost cases?
Factors considered
Key Vulnerabilities to IEUA Plan
Performance towards recycling goal
Miss recycling goal
Performance towards replenishment goal
Future climate
Adverse future climate
Amount of new conservation
Amount of groundwater infiltration
Effect of climate on imports
Any reduction in groundwater
infiltration
climate -1
Our Research Focused on Two Key Questions
• Are IEUA’s plans vulnerable to assumptions about
uncertain future conditions, including climate
change?
• Which actions should IEUA do now and which can
they defer to later to address the threat of climate
change?
climate -1
Response Options May Help IEUA
Address These Vulnerabilities
Each Option Has Benefits and Costs
• Efficiency reduces
demand but imposes
costs on customers
and requires customer
participation
• Recycled water use is
a drought-proof supply
but requires significant
public support
• Improved groundwater management increases resilience
to shortages but requires significant cooperation and
faces unknown costs
climate -1
Should IEUA Act Now or Later to
Reduce Potential Climate Vulnerabilities?
In 2015, 2020, 2025, ….
NO
Monitor, and take
additional action if
supplies drop too
low
Act now to
augment
In 2015, 2020, 2025, ….
2005 Plan?
YES
Implement
additional
efficiency,
recycling, and
replenishment
Monitor, and take
additional action if
supplies drop too
low
climate -1
We Evaluated Nine Strategies Under
200 Scenarios Reflecting Key Uncertainties
Current Plan Forever
UWMP + DYY and recycling
UWMP + replenishment
UWMP with updates
UWMP + DYY and recycling with updates
UWMP + replenishment with updates
UWMP + efficiency
UWMP + efficiency with updates
Static options
Update options
UWMP + all enhancements
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Number of Scenarios (PV Costs > $3.75 billion)
climate -1
Just Allowing the Current UWMP to Update
Reduces Vulnerability Substantially
Current Plan Forever
UWMP + DYY and recycling
From 120
Down to 30
UWMP + replenishment
UWMP with updates
Still vulnerable to:
• Precipitation declines
• Declines in imports
• Costs of imports
UWMP + DYY and recycling with updates
UWMP + replenishment with updates
UWMP + efficiency
UWMP + efficiency with updates
Static options
Update options
UWMP + all enhancements
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Number of Scenarios (PV Costs > $3.75 billion)
climate -2
Implementing Efficiency and Other Options Now
Reduces Future Vulnerabilities Even More
UWMP with updates
UWMP + DYY and recycling with updates
UWMP + replenishment with updates
UWMP + efficiency
Static options
UWMP + efficiency with updates
Implementation
becomes
more
challenging
Update options
UWMP + all enhancements
0
10
20
30
40
Number of Scenarios
(PV Costs > $3.75 billion)
climate -2
Implementing Efficiency and Other Options Now
Reduces Future Vulnerabilities Even More
UWMP with updates
UWMP + DYY and recycling with updates
UWMP + replenishment with updates
UWMP + efficiency
Static options
UWMP + efficiency with updates
Implementation
becomes
more
challenging
Update options
UWMP + all enhancements
0
10
20
30
40
Number of Scenarios
(PV Costs > $3.75 billion)
IEUA should make more near-term efficiency investments;
monitor performance and adapt as needed down the road
climate -2
US-Mexico Border Region Can and Must
Begin Adapting to Climate Change
• Resource managers can no longer assume future climate
will be like the past
– Impacts of climate change may create significant vulnerabilities in
agencies’ operations and plans
• Despite deep uncertainty, sufficient information exists to
support prudent action
– New planning methods may prove necessary
– Key is identifying near-term actions that are robust over a wide
range of plausible futures
• Effective response options are available
– Inland Empire Utilities Agency should increase investment in nearterm conservation, monitor carefully, and prepare to take further
actions
– Other agencies may require additional near-term responses
climate -2
climate -2
Analysis Suggests
Three Such Driving Forces
• Conducted statistical, cluster-finding analysis over all the model runs to identify the factors most
strongly associated with shortages in 20 Year Plan
Meet recycling goal
Miss
Meet
Exceed
Miss
Meet
Exceed
Meet replenishment goal
Future climate
Drier
Wetter
-5%
+20%
-20%
0%
Weak
Strong
New conservation
Reduced groundwater infiltration
Climate on imports
Explains 127 (of 180) low surplus cases
climate -2
Simulation Model Evaluated IEUA’s Current
Plan Under Many Different Scenarios
IEUA Water
Management
Options
Simulation
Model
Option
Performance
Uncertainties
climate -2
Scatter Plots Summarize Supply and Shortage
Costs for Each Scenario for Current Plan
Current Plan Forever
4.0
PV supply 3.5
cost
($ billions)
3.0
2.5
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
PV shortage cost ($ billions)
climate -2
Scatter Plots Summarize Supply and Shortage
Costs for Each Scenario for Current Plan
Current Plan Forever
4.0
PV supply 3.5
cost
($ billions)
Scenario B
• Significant warming and
Scenario A
precipitation decrease
• $3.4 billion in supply
cost
• $1.9 billion in shortage
cost
• Modest warming and
minimal precipitation
decrease
• $3.3 billion in supply
cost
• $0 in shortage cost
3.0
2.5
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
PV shortage cost ($ billions)
climate -2
Scatter Plots Summarize Supply and Shortage
Costs for Each Scenario for Current Plan
Current Plan Forever
4.0
PV supply 3.5
cost
($ billions)
3.0
(200 Scenarios)
2.5
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
PV shortage cost ($ billions)
climate -2
The Current Plan Performs Poorly
Under Many Possible Future Conditions
Current Plan Forever
4.0
(120 of 200 Scenarios)
PV supply 3.5
cost
($ billions)
3.0
$3.75 billion
cost threshold
2.5
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
PV shortage cost ($ billions)
climate -3
Statistical Analyses Suggested Three Major
Vulnerabilities to the IEUA Plan
Current Plan Forever
4.0
(120 of 200 Scenarios)
1. Strong declines in
precipitation
PV supply 3.5
cost
($ billions)
2. Reductions in
imported supply
3. Changes in
groundwater
replenishment
3.0
$3.75 billion
cost threshold
2.5
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
PV shortage cost ($ billions)
climate -3