Transcript Slide 1

Predictability and Model Verification of the Water and Energy Cycles:
Linking Local, Regional and Global Scales
Principal Investigator: Duane Waliser
Science issue: Quantify our simulation and prediction capabilities of the
water cycle and estimate its predictability, considering regional to global
scales.
Approach: Examine climate simulations and hindcast/forecast data sets
from global models and use satellite data for verification quantities.
Satellite-based data: GPCP, CMAP, AIRS, ISCCP, GLDAS, OAFlux,
TRMM, SSMI, MLS, CloudSat, GRACE.
Models: NCEP CFS, NASA GEOS-5, CMIP-3/IPCC
Analyses: NCEP 1&2, ECMWF
Study Period: 1979 and later for simulations and weather/short-term
climate forecasts, 20th and 21st century for CMIP3/IPCC
NOTE: The late arrival of GEOS5 products drive effort into other
synergistic studies on the water cycle and climate variability (e.g, MJO).
Project Publications:
MODELING, PREDICTION AND PREDICTABILITY
Waliser, D. E., K. Seo, S. Schubert, E. Njoku, 2007: Global Water Cycle Agreement in IPCC AR4 Model Simulations, Geoph. Res. Let., 34, L16705, doi:10.1029/2
Waliser, D., J. Kim, Y. Xue, Chao, Y., A. Eldering, R. Fovell, A. Hall, Q. Li, K. Liou, J. McWilliams, S. Kapnick, R. Vasic, Fs. De Sale, and Y. Yu, 2009, Simulating t
The impact of snow albedo and multi-layer snow physics, Bienniel California Climate Change Center Report, CEC-500-2008-XXX. To be submitted to a s
Change.
Kim, J., Y. Chao, A. Eldering, R. Fovell, A. Hall, Q. Li, K. Liou, J. McWilliams, D. Waliser, Y. Xue, and Sarah Kapnick, 2009: A projection of the cold season hydroc
century under the SRES-A1B emission scenario, Bienniel California Climate Change Center Report, CEC-500-2008-XXX. To be submitted to a special is
Jiang, X., D.E. Waliser, H.L. Pan, H. van den Dool, S. Schubert, 2008: Internannual prediction skill and predictability of the global water cycle in the NCEP Couple
In Preparation.
Gottschalck, J., M. Wheeler, K. Weickmann, F. Vitart, N. Savage, H. Lin, H. Hendon, D. Waliser, K. Sperber, M. Nakagawa, C. Prestrelo, M. Flatau, W. Higgins, 20
Operational Model MJO Forecasts: A Project of the CLIVAR Madden-Julian Oscillation Working Group, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc., Submitted.
Goswami, B.N., M. Wheeler, J. Gottschalck, and D. E. Waliser, 2008, Intraseasonal Variability and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research, WMO Fourth Intern
Monsoons, 20-15 October 2008, Beijing, China. To appear as a WMO Tech. Report.
Sperber, K.R., and D. E. Waliser, 2008: New Approaches to Understanding, Simulating, and Forecasting the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Bulletin of the American M
10.1175/2008BAMS2700.1.
OOBSERVATIONS AND MODEL VERIFICATION
Schwartz, M. J., D. E. Waliser, B. Tian, J. F. Li, D. L. Wu, J. H. Jiang, and W. G. Read, 2008: MJO in EOS MLS cloud ice and water vapor. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35
doi:10.1029/2008GL033675.
Waliser, D. E., B. J. Tian, M. J. Schwartz, X. Xie, W. T. Liu, and E. J. Fetzer, 2008: How well can satellite data characterize 1 the Water Cycle of the Madden-Julia
Lett., In Press.
Seo, K.-W., D. E. Waliser, B. J. Tian, J. Famiglietti, and T. Syed, 2009: Evaluation of global land-to-ocean fresh water discharge and evapotranspiration using spa
Hydrology, 373 (2009) 508–515.
Fetzer, E. J., W. G. Read, D. Waliser, B. H. Kahn, B. Tian, H. Vomel, F. W. Irion, H. Su, A. Eldering, M. d. l. T. Juarez, J. H. Jiang, and V. Dang, 2008: Comparison
Vapor Observations from the Microwave Limb Sounder and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder. J. Geophys. Res., 113, D22110, doi:10.1029/2008JD010000.
Jiang, X., D.E. Waliser, J.-L. Li, B. Tian, Y. L. Yung, W. Olson, M. Grecu, W.-K. Tao, S. E. Lang, 2008, Characterizing the vertical heating structure of the MJO usi
Special Issue, In Press.
Waliser, D. E., and M. Moncrieff, 2008, The Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Science Plan: A joint WCRP - WWRP/THORPEX International Initiative. WMO/TD
WWRP/THORPEX - No 9. WMO, Geneva, Switzerland.
Couhert, A., T. Schneider, J.-L. Li, D. E. Waliser, A.M. Tompkins, 2009: The maintenance of the relative humidity of the subtropical free troposphere, J. Climate, In
NEWS linkages:
Contribute to NASA-MAP Subseasonal Project: PI S. Schubert
Collaborate w/ Olson, Tao & L’Ecuyer on MJO TRMM Heating Retrievals
Collaborate w/ Liu on MJO and Moisture Convergence Retrievals
Collaborate w/ Pan & v.d.Dool on NCEP CFS Water Cycle Predictability & Skill
Connect to CLIVAR MJO Working Group and WCRP/WWRP YOTC Program.
Contribute Water Cycle Climate Changes to California Energy Commission
Longitude-pressure
distribution
of
seasonal mean total heating (units: K
day-1) based on (a) EC-IFS 24h
forecast; (b) ERA-40 reanalysis; (c)
TRMM/TRAIN
algorithm;
(d)
TRMM/CSH algorithm. The seasonal
mean is calculated from October 1998
to March 1999. All variables are
averaged
over
equatorial
zone
between 10oS-10oN. Jiang et al. 2009
Time-pressure distributions of total heating
contributed by convective (a, d), stratiform
(b, e), and radiative (c, f) components
based on EC-IFS forecast (left) and
TRMM/TRAIN
estimates
(right).
All
variables are averaged over the equatorial
eastern Indian Ocean (75-95oE; 10oS10oN; units: K day-1) . Jiang et al. 2009.
Lessons learned
What worked: TRMM-based estimates are beginning to be useful to describe
heating althogh models don’t routinely output. Multi-sensor estimates of major
water components beginning to describe hydrological cycle in large-scale
phenomena such as MJO.
What did not work: Lack of comprehensive water and energy cycle
components provided from conventional model hindcast/forecast and IPCC
AR4 data sets. Significant challenges remain on closing water cycle budget
from satellte observations for the large time and space scales e.g., MJO.
Updated: 8/24/09