Transcript CLIMATE RESILIENCE – Balancing sound energy initiatives

CLIMATE RESILIENCE – Balancing sound
energy initiatives against future challenges
MICHAEL JEFFERSON
Professor of International Business and Sustainability,
London Metropolitan Business School; and
Visiting Professor, Department of Economics and International
Studies, University of Buckingham, UK.
[email protected] [email protected]
CLIMATIC CHANGE - 1
• Human attribution is complex.
• Mean global near surface temperatures have risen 0.76º C
since 1900, but with no steady upward pattern apart from
the period 1970 – 2000. Since 1970 the centennial rate of
increase has been about 1º C.
• Atmospheric concentrations of most so-called
‘greenhouse’ gases have risen steadily, especially for
carbon dioxide over the past 250 years (by almost 40%).
• Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are, nevertheless, still
only 0.039% of the dry atmosphere and other ‘greenhouse’
gases still only 0.004%.
• In the total atmosphere water vapour and clouds are
believed to account for between 36% and 70% of the
‘greenhouse’ effect; ‘albedo’ is another contributor; carbon
dioxide for between 4% and 9%; and tropospheric ozone
for between 3% and 7%
CLIMATIC CHANGE - 2
• Natural variation, especially solar variation, should not be
ignored.
• Impacts of cloud formation and future uptake of carbon by
land and oceans poorly understood. [The Royal Society]
• Human attribution should include population increase,
urbanisation, deforestation, food and water demands, as
well as fossil fuel uses, other raw material and industrial
processing, and lifestyles.
• Potential sources of conflict include population
movements, water ‘wars’, food scarcity, interruption or
cessation of important services (transportation, heating,
lighting, cooling).
• Uncertainty over prospects and projections, from extent of
warming to impacts of extreme weather events.
• A 4º C rise in mean near surface global temperature could
have catastrophic consequences.
• Need for resilient responses, covering potential climate
change and other likely challenges – such as ‘peak oil’.
RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC CHANGE
• The scientific debate has become too politicised.
• The climate change negotiating process is too cumbersome, key
parties too divided, and clearly ineffectual.
• In addition to the many Annex I countries that have greatly increased
their emissions since 1990, emissions embodied in exports are not
being adequately addressed. For example, over 33% of China’s CO2
emissions are now embodied in exports, mainly to Annex I countries.
As a result, some Annex I countries claiming reduced emissions
arguably have not done so.
• Instead of treating climatic change as “the utmost priority” it may be
more fruitful, and achieve positive results more quickly, to refocus our
goals; take a more pluralistic approach; separate out energy and
climate policy; place more urgent emphasis on tackling carbon black
emissions, aerosols, methane, and tropospheric ozone which are more
short-lived climatic forcing agents than CO2, the halocarbons, SF6,
and nitrous oxide.
• As part of the urgent responses listed, the Montreal Protocol
provisions should be modified to encompass climate-warming but nonozone depleting gases.
• Urgent steps are needed to safeguard tropical forests and discourage
forest degradation.
THE ENERGY SUPPLY DIMENSION
• How best can we maintain modern energy services to
those who have them already, and provide them for those
who do not have access to them?
• The greatest threat we face on the energy supply front –
whether electricity or transportation fuels – is a lengthy
period of supply disruptions, non-availability, and price
escalation. Will we even be able to sustain current
standards of useful energy provision?
• Recognition is required that the availability of conventional
oil resources will be constrained by the ‘peak oil’
challenge; and alternative sources such as shale oil
(including shale gas attracting euphoria and complaints),
tar sands, and heavy oil are costly to extract, require
energy- and water-intensive processes, and have severe
environmental implications.
• Where water shortages are severe and solar insolation is
high, solar energy offers great advantages. Before we
consider solar energy, other forms of renewable energy are
considered.
GLOBAL RENEWABLE ENERGY IN 2009
• Renewable energy accounted for 19% of world primary energy use in
2009, but 13% was represented by traditional biomass and only 6% by
‘new’ renewables. Of this 6%, over half was from large hydropower.
• Hydropower contributed 15% of world electricity generation, ‘new’
renewables 3%.
• Of the ‘new’ renewables excluding large hydro, wind power provided
just over 52% of the total; small hydro nearly 20%; modern
biomass/biofuels 17%; solar 7%; and geothermal 3%.
• In 2009 wind power increased its installed capacity by 38 GW (25%
over 2008). Solar collectors for hot water/space heating increased its
installed capacity by 24% over 2008.
• Germany accounted for 47% of the solar PV market in 2009, followed
by Spain (16%), Japan (13%), and USA (6%). Both Germany and Spain
have cut back their subsidies. CSP capacity in USA and Spain now
totals over 1GW. Germany has built 50 MW CSP capacity and there is
revived interest in the Desertec concept, to provide electricity by UHVDC transmission from CSP installations in North Africa to Europe.
• Ethanol production increased by 13.5% in 2009 over 2008, and
biodiesel production increased by 40%.
RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS – a summary
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Geothermal – significant, but localised and elsewhere.
Large Hydro – significant at regional level, but elsewhere.
Estuarine barrages – destroy local ecology, and elsewhere.
Tidal stream – significant at local level, but elsewhere.
Wave – modest significance, and largely elsewhere.
Ocean Thermal – steady power source, but limited by need
for wide water temperature difference, costs, need for
proximity to markets, and environmental concerns.
● Biomass – woody biomass sources are widespread
outside the Arab Middle East, but compete for land and
water resource needs of food production.
● Biofuels – corn, bagasse, and palmoil are among the
preferred sources but their contribution to total
transportation fuel use is and will be modest, and their
exploitation using first generation biofuel technologies
causes environmental concerns, and competes with food
production needs. There are doubts whether 2nd/3rd
generation technologies (especially scaled-up closedsystem algal biofuel technologies) will prove fruitful.
RENEWABLE ENERGY OPTIONS - continued
• Wind power – variable, contribution frequently exaggerated, requires
back-up from other steady sources. Even where the wind resource is
claimed to be large it is usually not quite what it is made out to be. In
the Arab Middle East winds are generally short-lived (the Shamal,
Quas, Khamsin, Simoun, Ghibli, Haboob, Levante), although gentle
breezes close to sunset are more widespread and sustained near
coasts.
• In Egypt it is claimed that wind speeds can reach 10 m/s, especially in
the Gulf of Suez, and installed wind energy capacity now exceeds 430
MW. However, wind speed atlases for the Arab Middle East suggest
mean wind speeds are below 6 m/s at 80 metres above surface level
everywhere except near coast-Morocco and the SW edge of the
Arabian Peninsula.
• The traditional wind tower (barjeel, badgir, kashteel, malgaf) is an
excellent device for using gentle breezes when they occur. Traditional
– vernacular – architecture in the Arab Middle East has much to offer in
seeking climate change resilience, which modern Western design and
materials do not yet offer.
THE OBVIOUS PREFERENCE - SOLAR
• Solar PV has a significant rôle to play where solar
insolation is high – such as in the Arab Middle East.
• Solar Thermal – Concentrating Solar Power – using
parabolic mirrors and salts to assist storage, has
enormous potential. This potential is huge not only in
terms of potential volume of electricity generation to meet
regional needs but also, using UHV-DC transmission,
potentially for export to countries with lower solar
insolation (e.g. in Europe from North Africa).
• Passive Solar – the traditional – vernacular – architecture
of the Arab Middle East in its layout, thickness of walls, use
of flowing water, and response to needs for light and shade
is profoundly resilient to climatic change. From the riyads
of Morocco through the magnificent towering houses of
Sana’a, to the Sheikh Saeed House in Dubai, the former
Palace in Sharjah, and the Sheikh Isa bin Ali, Bait Sayadi,
and Bait al Jasrah houses in Bahrain.