Transcript Some Advice Received from the Academy

“The Biofuel Delusion” + reflections
on teaching ecological economics
With application to ZeroCarbonBritain 2030 (CAT)
Nick Bardsley, University of Reading
"The Biofuel Delusion"
Source: Giampietro and Mayumi (2009) The Biofuel Delusion;
hereafter ‘G&M’
Ecosystem Metabolism
• In a zoo:
– 4 tigers / 10,000m2; 250kg each = 0.1kg/m2
• Zoo maintains distance from
thermodynamic equilibrium by importing
food (operating as open system)
• Equivalent forest area supporting 4 tigers
= 5000 x 10,000m2 = 50km2
Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/pagetitre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.html
Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/pagetitre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.html
Source: Mario Giampietro and Kozo Mayumi: http://ourenergyfutures.org/pagetitre-The_bizarre_story_of_the_Liquid_Biofuels-cid-17.html
A Biofuel Society?
• Fossil fuel scenario = 20 GJ/capita/yr→
metabolic rate ES
= 2 000 000 000 J/hr
= 2,000 MJ/hr
(840 GJ/capita/yr) & (10hrs/capita/yr)→
metabolic rate ES
= 84,000, 000 000 J/hr
= 84,000 MJ/hr
We would need to boost the power level in the
energy sector by a factor of 40 (source: G&M)
So how much could biofuel substitute for fossil fuel?
Source: G&M
MacKay (2008): Sustainable
Energy Without the Hot Air
• Biomass
– Harvestable power = 100 W/m2
– η = 2% (max); 2 W/m2
– realistically 0.5 W/m2
Smil (2003): max. 0.05W/m2: biofuels: energy
for energy, infrastructure
Estimates of Land Use and Labour
Requirements with O/I at 1.1/1
• Italy: 121GJ/c/yr
 30% of liquid transport fuel = (corn ethanol)
94% of work hours in the energy sector
>7x land currently in agricultural production (G&M)
• USA: 300GJ/c/yr
 10% of liquid transport fuel = (corn ethanol)
48% of potential labour supply hours
>31 x land currently in agricultural production (G&M)
• Zero Carbon Britain 2030: 112.6 tWh/yr = 0.4EJ/yr Net
 Gross liquid fuel supply requirement of 4.4EJ
247,000,000t odm/yr = 15m ha = >2.5x arable land in GB ~70% land
Assumes i) conversion of odm to LF powered by odm
ii) 16 t/ha/yr Miscanthus yield = top of the stated range (1-16t)
(own calculations)
This shows a net injection of energy from biofuels. But this implies a gross output of
biofuels 11x this amount if the output/input ratio is comparable to that of first generation
biofuels (1.1/1). Internal 'energy for energy' loops are not shown. (Diagram from
ZeroCarbonBritain 2030, p368)
What properties would '2nd gen'
biofuels need to do better?
"When looking for an alternative energy source to
oil, it is completely irrelevant whether the
output/input ratio is 1.5/1, 1.2/1 or 1.8/1.
Any energy source with an output/input of energy
carriers below 5/1 has little chance of becoming
a useful energy source for modern society."
Giampietro & Mayumi (2009, p236)
•
I’ve been unable to locate peer-reviewed O/I figures for
Miscanthus accounting for the energy-for-energy loop
Conclusion
• G&M = an impossibility theorem for agrobiofuels
• bar for '2nd generation' biofuels set very high
• burden of proof is on proponents to demonstrate
very high O/I ratios, spatial accommodation,
independence from ff
• OR restrict to a minor role in a peak-oil economy
• Liquid transport fuel and land use in ZCB appear
to need rethinking
On trying to teach climate change
(ecological) economics
• "The Real World! Eurrrrrrghhhhhhhh!!!
…….. I actually don't think they [NGOs,
think tanks, other disciplines] are closer to
the real world than we are."
– Reader in economics (mainstream)
– Context: leaving an economics department
without an economics job lined up
– Implication? we can understand the real world
best by prioritising modelling abstractions
• “you have to be very careful when you are
criticising things people make a living from”
– It's actually rare for academics to debate
fundamental issues … it's not quite the done thing!
– It’s not just a feature of economics departments
Currently: Lecturer in Climate Change Economics,
University of Reading
Introduced new MSc
2011/12
External referee: Richard
Douthwaite
Compulsory modules in:
i) ecological economics of
climate change
ii) Climate change policy
and governance
Dangers of Indiscriminate Fundraising in Academia
• The School established, in an incremental and
piecemeal fashion, a relationship with Libya. Before a
global company embarks upon a relationship with a
foreign partner, a due diligence assessment should be
conducted. No similar exercise took place in this case.
The links were allowed to grow, unchecked and to a
degree unnoticed, until their effect was overwhelming. In
October 2009, the LSE’s Council resolved that the links
should be monitored carefully in future. That monitoring
came too late. By October 2009 the relationship with
Libya had been well established.
– Woolf Report (2011) section 1.13
Disciplinary Reinforcers
• Research
– The RAE (aka REF)
– Mono-disciplinary grant review panels
– Mainstream enshrined in government e.g. "Green book"
• Teaching
– Covering absences
– External examiners
– Best known approaches, institutions attract applicants
– Labour market (govt departments, business; mainstream
economics = technological optimism)
Disciplinary Reinforcers
• General
– Power asymmetries within Universities; increasing
minimum grant sizes
– Understaffing: no time to learn anything new!
Robert Ulanowitz: Ascendency
B
A
C
F
D
E
Robert Ulanowicz: Ascendency
B
A
• Tendency for ecosystem
linkages to become more
concentrated over time
• Emergence of mutuallybeneficial sub-systems; these
become more prominent
F
D
E
• The most 'cooperative'
elements are most robust, less
cooperative elements fall away
"Ecology: the Ascendent Perspective"
Why bother?
Students are highly appreciative of courses that theorise and engage with
real world issues and processes, as opposed to teaching modelling
developed in isolation from facts and data