Transcript Riding out the Storm Adapting to the Precipitation Impacts

Projected Climate Impacts
and Adaptation Strategies
for Wisconsin’s Urban Areas
UWM – School of Freshwater
Sciences
All Things Water
September 14, 2010
David S. Liebl
UW-Cooperative Extension,
and
UW-Engineering Professional
Development
DNR
Photo: WDNR
Overview
• Wisconsin’s Changing climate
• Expected Impacts
• How we can adapt
Recent Warming of the Atmosphere
Source: IPCC 2007
Predicting Climate Change
What General Circulation Models (GCMs) tell us
Temperature:
Warms by 2-6C (3-10F)
by end of century
Precipitation:
Less certain and
seasonally dependent
Steve Vavrus, CCR
Acting on Climate Change
in Wisconsin
Mitigation:
Governor’s Task Force on Global Warming
addressed ways to reduce greenhouse
gas emissions
Adaptation:
Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change
Impacts (WICCI) addresses ways to adapt
to consequences of climate change
Wisconsin Initiative
on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)
Mission:
Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin
natural resources, ecosystems and regions.
Evaluate potential effects on
industry, agriculture, tourism,
and other human activities.
Develop and recommend
adaptation strategies.
www.wicci.wisc.edu
WICCI was created by a partnership of
the UW-Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies
and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources.
Understanding our changing climate
We’ve been measuring temperature and rainfall in
Wisconsin since 1870
1930
WI Cooperative Weather Stations
2008
Change in Annual Average Temperature from 1950 to 2006
State average
1.5°F warmer
(from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)
Extreme Temperature Trends
Change in the frequency of
<0°F nights per year
from 1950 to 2006
Decline in extremely cold
winter nights, especially in
northwest Wisconsin
Change in the frequency of
≥90°F days per year
from 1950 to 2006
Very little change in hot
summer days
(from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)
Change in the Length of the Growing Season
In Days from 1950 to 2006
Increase of
up to 4 weeks
(from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)
Change in Annual Average Precipitation (inches) from 1950 to 2006
Statewide 15%
increase
(but highly variable)
(from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)
No reliable data
Potter, et al.
Potter, et al.
Earlier arrival of spring in Wisconsin
Bird migration
Vegetation
Geese Arrival:
29 days
Baptista first bloom:
18 days
Cardinal first song:
22 days
Butterfly weed first bloom:
18 days
Robin arrival:
9 days
Marsh milkweed first
bloom: 13 days
Source: Bradley et al., 1999
55 ecological indicators of spring occurred (on average)
1.2 days earlier per decade from 1936 to 1998.
So…we live in a changing climate
What will the future bring?
Using Climate Models to Understand the Future
General Circulation Models (GCMs)
simulate the effects of incoming and
outgoing thermal radiation on global
climate, and include:
Atmosphere
Clouds
Oceans
Topography
Rainfall
Etc.
IPCC 2007
WCCI Climate Modeling
• Used 14 Global Climate Models (GCM’s) from IPCC 2007 assessment
• Verified using historical Wisconsin weather station data
• Provides a statistical range of probable climate change
GCM grid
Downscaled (8x8 km) grid
Downscaling:
Focus global
projections to a
scale relevant to
climate impacts
in Wisconsin
Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison
Downscaled GCMs
vs.
Historic data
Wisconsin temperature
and precipitation for
14 GCMs for 1980-1999
Black line = Observed
temperature and precipitation
Dave Lorenz
Predicted Annual Temperature Change
Projected Change in Annual Average
Temperature (°F) from 1980 to 2055
Probability distribution of
14 GCM Projections
50% probability
temperature
(plotted on maps)
90% chance of
exceeding this
temperature
Wisconsin projected to warm by
4 – 9 °F by mid-21st Century
10% chance of
exceeding this
temperature
Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison
Projected Change in Seasonal Temperatures
Spring
Winter
1980 to 2055 (°F)
Fall
Summer
Warming is most pronounced in winter
Projected Temperature Extremes
Projected change in the frequency of
<0°F nights per year
from 1980 to 2055
Fewer extremely cold
winter nights
Projected change in the
frequency of ≥90°F days per year
from 1980 to 2055
More hot summer days
Projected Change in Precipitation from 1980 to 2055
Change in Annual Average (inches)
Probability Distributions of 14
Climate Model Projections by Month
Models predict winter and
early spring will be wetter
Models uncertain about
amount of summer rainfall
Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison
Increase in Intense Precipitation
Increasing in frequency
5.6 days/yr
1.0 days/yr
0.2 days/yr
Moderate increase in intensity
2.42 inches
Steve Vavrus
Heaviest rainfall events (>5” in 24 hours) Not predicted to increase substantially in number or intensity
Potter, et al.
Predicted changes in monthly
temperature and precipitation to 2090
Predicted changes in monthly temperature and precipitation to 2090
A word about uncertainty
While we cannot predict the
future, we can estimate the
risk (probability) from
changing climate…
Understanding the risk and
potential consequences
supports good decisionmaking.
David Lorenz, CCR
Summary of Predicted Climate
• Confident in a rise in nighttime and winter temperatures
• Expect a significant increase in rain during winter
• Moderate increase in frequency and intensity of rainfall
What does this mean for
Wisconsin Communities?
Average temperatures increasing 4-9°F by 2050
= More Heat Waves
WICCI Human Health Working Group
Warmer summers
= Reduced Air Quality
Projected increases in ozone in Chicago (Source: Holloway et al. 2008)
High Water Impacts
June 1-15, 2008
38
810
161
2,500
River gauges broke records
Square miles of land flooded
Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage
Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated
$34M in damage claims paid
Source: FEMA, WEM
Urban Flooding
Flooding of streets, homes and
businesses may become more
frequent as rainfall patterns
change.
Critical infrastructure is also at risk
from high water events, e.g. City
of Reedsburg POTW required
$800K in repairs.
Photo: WDNR
Photo: Robert Mckean / Zuma Press
Upland runoff and sanitary sewer overflows
- Drinking water contamination
- Beach closures
- Wetland and aquatic habitat damage
Changing lake levels
Lake Superior
“The general scientific consensus is that
water levels of Lake Michigan and
Lake Superior will decline on average..
...while continuing to exhibit large
inter-decadal variation, as in the
past 100 years.”
- WICCI Coastal Communities Working Group
Lake Michigan
Coastal Erosion
Warmer and wetter winters =
- Increased infiltration;
- More freeze/thaw cycles;
- Increasing coastal erosion;
- Bluff collapse and landslides.
Photos: D. Mickelson
How will Wisconsin
adapt to climate change?
Photo: WDNR
Adapting to Climate Change
Humans have always adapted to climate.
Heat waves
Low lake levels
But predicted changes lead us into unknown territory.
WICCI and Adaptation
Mitigation is the idea that we can avoid, prevent or minimize
undesirable things happening in the future.
Adaptation is the idea that changes are occurring or will occur, and we
can manage the impacts of those changes.
WICCI recommends a risk management approach
Climate presents hazards of varying severity and likelihood.
Encourage no-regrets strategies
- Clear present benefit
- Building future capacity
- Don’t gamble on uncertainty
- Flexibility to respond to new information
Successful Adaptation Strategies
– Update our design process
– Identify our vulnerabilities
– Long-range planning
– Education and research
– Better information
Our designs are based on experience (i.e. history)
The records used may actually reflect
a drier period (1938-1958).
Largest Daily Rainfall
Madison, WI
Mississippi River at Clinton
1 10 5
4
8 10 4
Discharge
(cfs)
5
3
Rainfall
(inches)
2
4 10 4
2 10 4
1
0
1860
6 10 4
0
1880
1900
1920
1940
Year
1960
1980
2000
2020
1880
1900
1920
1940
Year
We are designing for a historic climate.
1960
1980
2000
Heavy Rainfall
Between 1950 and 2007
more than 135 rainfall events
greater than 5" were recorded
across the state.
Heavy rainfall can happen
anywhere, now and in the future.
Photo: DNR
Liebl and Schuster
Vulnerability Analysis
“Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced
recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of
vulnerabilities…..”
- WICCI Stormwater Working Group
Consider:
– Floodplains and surface flooding
– Areas of groundwater flooding
– At-risk road-crossings
– Stormwater BMPs
– Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration
– Emergency response capacity
– Wells and septic systems
– Hazardous materials storage
Photo: City of Antigo
Photo: Joe Koshollek, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Promote long-range planning
- Planning for impacts 25 or 50 years out is challenging
- Adaptation to low-risk, high-cost events requires political support
- Use simulations to understand high water impacts
- The next generation of planners needs to be trained today
Education and Research
- Periodically reevaluate and revise climate
and hydrologic design models and criteria.
- Develop tools to distinguish the hydrologic
effects of human activities from climate
change.
- Evaluate and improve strategies for
managing high water.
- Establish curriculum to build professional
capacity among water resource managers.
Better Information is Needed
- Real time stream-flow data
- Robust groundwater monitoring
- Fine scale rainfall data
- Detailed understanding of sub-watershed characteristics
- Updated estimates of flood profiles
Adaptation Strategies for Milwaukee
Vulnerability
Stormwater,
Flooding
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Air Quality

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Public Health


Built Environment
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Adaptation Options
Conduct public education on water usage, rain barrels,
and rain gardens.
Expand capacity of sewers and/or pursue alternative
operational procedures for POTW.
Apply best management practices; stormwater
retention, permeable pavement, and buffer strips.
Increase tree canopy.
Increase transportation alternatives.
Increase use of co-generation for power production.
Improve warning system for extreme weather events
and air quality advisories.
Conduct public education on climate related health
threats to urban areas.
Improve energy efficiency of buildings and homes.
Apply green infrastructure; green roofs and
high albedo surfaces.
Ensure buildings, roads, and bridges can withstand
extreme weather events.
- WICCI Milwaukee Working Group
Assistance to communities
Extension outreach to provide local decision-makers with climate
adaptation capacity.
Identify areas and infrastructure in the community that are
vulnerable to large storm events.
- Economy
- Environment
- Infrastructure
- Land use
Funded by NOAA through Wisconsin Sea Grant,
with UW-Extension and UW-Madison College of Engineering
WICCI Take-home Messages
Our climate has and will continue to change.
Wisconsin’s urban communities are vulnerable.
We have adapted, and can continue to adapt:
– Update our design process
– Identify our high water vulnerabilities
– Long-range planning
– Education and research
– Better information
Synthesis of climate impact
assessments by WICCI
Working Groups.
Initial recommendations on
adaptation strategies for
decision-makers.
www.wicci.wisc.edu