Transcript Titel

EDORA:
European Development Opportunities
for Rural Areas
Led by: UHI Millennium Institute, Inverness, Scotland
Co-ordinated by: Andrew Copus, NordRegio
Presentation by: David Meredith, Teagasc
Presentation Structure
• EDORA: An Overview
• Future perspectives through the medium of
regional potential
• The Conditionality of Potential (Drivers and
constraints)
• Role of regional innovation systems in
leveraging regional potential
EDORA: An Overview
• Partners
– 16 in total
– 3 UK based (MAP)
• Timeline
– Commenced 2008
– Completion 2010
• Final report due Summer 2010
• Budget: €700,000
Project Objectives
…to develop a better understanding of the
development opportunities and challenges
facing diverse types of rural areas in Europe.
…to support targeted policy development, relating
(inter alia) to job creation and social change.
… support the practical implementation - across a
range of policy fields – of spatial development
principles which have evolved out of … the
Fifth Cohesion Report, and the Territorial
Cohesion Green Paper.
The EDORA Approach
• Rural data availability is strongly influenced by the
agrarian rural development tradition.
• Whilst this is of certain relevance to NMS, being
driven by data availability risks “slipping into welltrodden paths…” with the result that new forms of
RD are ignored.
• EDORA applies a hybrid “deductive/inductive”
approach:
– establish territorial concepts and theory as basis
for the development of a strong evidence base
that supports empirical analysis and an
assessment of the policy implications.
EDORA’s Structure
•
•
•
•
•
Drivers of Change
– Detailed thematic review
Grand Narratives
– Synthesis of various drivers of change into three ‘Grand
Narratives’
Typology Development
– A tool for:
• assessing the spatial distribution of rural change
• the development of future perspectives and identification of
policy considerations
Future Perspectives
– Evaluation of the potential implications of the drivers of change
on rural region’s development trajectories
Policy Implications
– Assessment of existing and emerging policy gaps in the face of
contemporary trends and prospective future challenges
Future Perspectives
•
Econometric modelling limited in the extent to which it takes into
consideration unforeseen events, e.g. financial crisis.
•
Raises the question as to the significance we should ascribe to such
‘Black Swan’ events.
•
Scenarios enable one to develop alternative, plausible narratives of
the future.
•
Foresight activities take major uncertainties as the building blocks
of a conceptual framework within which to consider possible
alternative futures.
•
Within EDORA we were asked to consider the possible futures of
rural regions within the EU.
Approaching the Future
•
•
•
Identification of meta drivers of change
– Detailed thematic review
– Expert group
• Climate and Energy
Climate
– Significant implications for economic activities in rural areas
given:
• Importance of economic sectors dependent on specific
environmental conditions (including tourism)
Energy
– Peak oil will pass (if it has not already) around 2020
• Implications for rural areas stem primarily from
– Higher transport costs
– Dispersed settlement
– Energy requirements of traditional industries
• Implications vary according the type of policy pursued
ranging from ‘clean coal’ – renewable energy sources
Climate
•
It is not necessarily ‘climate change’ that will drive change but
policies aimed at mitigating the negative impacts of climate change
that will affect rural areas in the period to 2030
•
Greater recognition of the costs of disruptive weather events (floods
/ drought / storms) will facilitate State and EU initiatives designed
to mitigate the negative impacts of a warmer global climate
•
These initiatives will have significant implications for rural regions
• Land use
– – greater demand for space to develop renewable
energy
– – conflict over changing land use
• Settlement patterns
– – Will there be a need to concentrate development in
CTVs
• Economy
– – Food security issues
Energy
•
Peak oil will be reached during the time period covered by these
scenarios.
– Post 2020 will be characterised by the prolonged(?) decline of oil
/ gas production
– Heightened awareness of the need to diversify energy supplies
– Energy security issues will increasingly dominate EU and
National policy debates
•
A number of possible futures are imaginable
– Clean Coal
– Nuclear
– Renewable
– Magic Bullet? Hydrogen / Cold fusion
•
Depending on where the emphasis is placed and the viability of any
of these solutions rural areas might be empowered or
disenfranchised.
Future Contexts
Incremental
Fundamental
Climate Policy
Energy Sources
Climate Policy
Energy Sources
Renewable
Fossil
Future Contexts
1. Nuclear
2. Rural Revival
3. Fossil Future
4. Factory Floor
Fossil
Fundamental
Incremental
Renewable
2. Rural Revival
•
•
•
•
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Rural regions are repositioned within the EU and national economies
by virtue of the increasing significance of land in the rise of the
‘Green Economy’
Production of increasingly scarce resources, energy and food,
revitalises all types of rural economies
Increasing emphasis is given to regional and national food security
with the EU devolving greater responsibility to national governments
for the strategic development of their agri-food sectors.
– This development mirrors increasing consumer awareness of the
environmental consequences of intensive food production and
associated dietary changes.
The location of energy generation capacity in rural regions
encourages the redistribution of industry seeking lower production
costs.
Energy production results in significant infrastructure development
which spills over into the broader regional economy increasing
accessibility and quality of life.
4. Fossil Future
•
•
•
•
•
Resistance to renewable energy production in rural areas results in
continued dependence on conventional sources
High fossil energy costs associated with rural industry and dispersed
settlement patters make rural regions increasingly uncompetitive.
Food production systems diverge into intensive and extensive
systems – in both instances returns to producers are marginal.
There is a continued need to subsidise farmers to ensure food is
produced. Periodic food shortages occur at times of high energy
prices.
Rural regions become increasingly insular with fewer opportunities
for travel (decline of tourism)
Population decline affects many rural regions
Thank You for Listening