Transcript US Army Corps of Engineers CP2a Sustainability Activities

Climate Change and
Navigation: EnviCom TG3
Presented by:
Kate White, PhD, PE
USACE Institute for Water Resources
Chair, PIANC EnviCom Permanent
Task Group on Climate Change
Navigating the Environment:
Managing Risks and
Sustaining the Environment
New Orleans
28 October 2009
US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG®
Observed Climate Change
Projected Climate Change
BUILDING STRONG®
Climate Change Commitment
PIANC and Climate Change
 PIANC is the global organization providing guidance for
sustainable waterborne transport, ports and waterways
 It is time to act
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Significant changes in climate and their impacts are visible regionally,
and are expected to become more pronounced in the next decades
Changes in the water balance and the discharge of rivers bring pressure
on the reliability of inland navigation in the future
Changing ice conditions bring new perspectives for marine/polar
navigation
Every infrastructure project has to deal already today with the possible
impact of climate change
 The European Commission recently developed the concept of
climateproofing,
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Defined as “Ensuring the sustainability of investments over their entire
lifetime, taking explicit account of a changing climate.”
This may become an important driver in all future planning processes
BUILDING STRONG®
PIANC and Climate Change
 First step: Task Group 3
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Mandate: Review of climate change drivers, impacts, responses
and mitigation for navigation sector
Started in March 2007 and finished in April 2008
Members represent a broad cross-section of disciplines: climate
change specialists (meteorologists and forecasters), hydrology
experts (water balance and discharge specialists),
oceanographers, hydraulic engineers in the field of maritime and
inland navigation
Countries: Germany, United Kingdom, USA, France, Norway
Corresponding: Belgium, Spain, Australia, Japan, South Africa
 Second step: EnviCom Permanent Task Group on
Climate Change
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Kickoff October 2009
Terms of Reference
BUILDING STRONG®
PIANC TG3
 Strategy
► Review
of existing literature :
• Create a common ground within PIANC
• Identify areas where PIANC should develop technical
guidance about climate change for the navigation sector
• Communicate that PIANC has recognized the challenges of
climate change
► Climate
mitigation
• How can the navigation sector contribute to the reduction of
greenhouse gas emissions?
► Climate
adaption
• How will the navigation sector be affected and what
adaptation strategies and measures are necessary?
BUILDING STRONG®
TG 3 Report
 Printed May 2008:
“Waterborne transport,
ports and waterways: A
review of climate
change drivers, impacts,
responses and
mitigation”
 Chairman: Dr. Hans
Moser, Federal Institute of
Hydrology, Koblenz,
Germany
 Secretary: Dr. Peter
Hawkes, Hydraulic
Research, Wallingford, UK
BUILDING STRONG®
TG 3 Report
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Identification of the relevance of climate change for
maritime and inland navigation
Summary of the realistic impact scenarios (e.g.
environmental, technical, economic, political) by
documenting the existing uncertainties with the use of
climate models. The report shows potential impacts on
navigation, distinguishing between maritime and inland
navigation
Summary of examples where climate change already
creates problems for navigation
Discussion on mitigation: how the navigation sector could
contribute to reduce climate change impacts (e.g. reduction
of CO2 emissions and alternative fuel concepts) and
support navigation as an environmentally sound and
sustainable mode of transportation
Discussion of adaptation: assessing climate impacts and
responses to prepare the navigation sector for the projected
climate scenarios with the aim of adapting navigation
infrastructure, equipment and daily practice for future
sustainability
BUILDING STRONG®
TG3: Dealing with uncertainty
global
climate
regional
climate
regional
climate
impact
GCM
downscaling
runoff
model
regional
measures
for mitigation
range of uncertainty
greenhouse
greenhouse
gas emissions gas
concentration
BUILDING STRONG®
TG3: Dealing with uncertainty
ecosystem
function
water
quality
uncertainty
sediment
transport
waves
wind
sea level rise
temperature
sediment
transport
runoff
precipitation
temperature
water
quality
ecosystem
function
extreme values
variability
(inter-, intra-annual)
mean values
small spatial scale
large spatial scale
complexity
BUILDING STRONG®
Maritime Navigation
Drivers
Potential Impacts
 Increase in power and reach
of storm surge, coastal
flooding, spray zone and
erosion patterns
 Change in magnitude and
duration of storm surges
and incidents of water over
sea wall structures
 Wave attack at a higher
water level reducing the
energy loss of breaking
 Changes in frequency,
duration and intensity of
storms
 Change in the sea level
range (and other sea state
parameters)
 Ice and icing
 Changed dredging requirements
 Low land flooding
 Increased vulnerability/degradation of
structures
 Permanent loss of sand offshore and
onshore
 Less viable industrial land to enlarge
ports
 Retreat of coastal landscapes
 Problems in maneuvering
 Reduced capacity of natural systems
to recover
 Access to Polar Regions (NW and NE
Passages open all year)
 Potentially more ice at river outlets in
the north
 Potential northward relocation of fish
Inland Navigation
Trends and projections for extreme climatological and
hydrological events (after Table SPM.2, IPCC, 2007d)
Phenomenon and direction
of trend
Likelihood that the trend
occurred in the late
20th century (typically
post 1960)
Likelihood of future trends
based on projections
for 21st century using
SRES scenarios
Warmer and fewer cold days
and nights over most land
areas
Very Likely (decreased
frequency of coldest
days and nights, coldest
10 %)
Virtually certain (warming of
the most extreme days
and nights each year)
Warmer and more frequent hot
nights over most land
areas
Very Likely (increased
frequency of hot days
and nights, hottest
10 %)
Virtually certain (warming of
the most extreme days
and nights each year)
Relevance to
navigation
Form of precipitation
(snow/rain);
presence or absence of
ice
Associated with
drought
Warm spells/heat waves.
Frequency increases over
most land areas
Likely
Very Likely
Associated with
drought
Area affected by droughts
increases
Likely in many regions since
the 1970’s
Likely
Associated with
droughts
Heavy precipitation events.
Frequency (or proportion
of total rainfall from
heavy falls) increases
over most areas
Associated with floods
Likely
Very Likely
Predicted changes in precipitation (in percent) for the period 2090–
2099, relative to 1980–1999, for December to February (left) and June to
August (right); white areas are where less than 66 % of the models
agree in the sign of the change and stippled areas are where more than
90 % of the models agree in the sign of the change (reproduced from
IPCC, Meehl et al., 2007, AR4 WG1, Figure 10.9)
BUILDING STRONG®
A1B simulations: (top row) annual mean, DJF and JJA fractional change in precipitation
from 1980-1999 to 2080-2099, averaged over 21 models; (bottom row) number of models out
of 21 that project increases in precipitation (after IPCC, 2007d, Figure 11.12), superimposed
over map of navigation from DOT freight analysis
Tows delayed during ice conditions, Melvin Price Locks and Dam,
Mississippi River, February 2007; ice build-up in the lock caused one
tow to become stuck, temporarily shutting down the lock; later, width
restrictions were implemented
BUILDING STRONG®
TG3 Conclusions
 The navigation sector could contribute to a reduction in GHG
emissions by improving efficiency, employing alternative fuels,
and emphasizing navigation as an environmentally-sound
mode of transportation
 Climate change adaptation alternatives are less well-studied,
and often depend on local governmental requirements; the
navigation industry can institute proactive management and
planning in an effort to speed navigation-related climate
change adaptation measures and reduce vulnerabilities
 Ideally, the navigation community will employ adaptive
planning, operational, and infrastructure decision-making that
take into account natural and social system features and the
impacts of incremental changes over time.
 A comprehensive systems approach that allows continuous
upgrades as new knowledge emerges and new engineering
practices are developed will support satisfactory system safety
and performance under the dynamic conditions and in the face
of nonlinear processes associated with climate change
BUILDING STRONG®
PTG CC
 Objectives
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Provide a common and basic platform for all PIANC commissions
to build up their work plans regarding climate change
ID relevant aspects of climate change for maritime and inland
navigation
Summarize where and how climate change and natural variability
impact the navigation sector, including knowledge and technology
gaps to drive future scientific research
Provide information related to climate change adaptation for the
navigation sector
Information related to climate change mitigation potential (focus on
inland navigation mitigation measures)
Develop guidance on how PIANC should deal with climate change
in detail in the future (roadmap)
Knowledge management and technology transfer related to
climate change between PIANC Commissions, and between
PIANC and other organisations devoted to navigation, waterways,
and port infrastructure, as well as other stakeholders
PTG CC
BUILDING STRONG®