Transcript Humanity’s Footprint: The Land Use Solution

Land Use Stabilization
Wedge: Mitigating
Climate Change Through
Land Use and
Transportation Planning
John R. Nolon
© 2008
Part I: Our Footprints:
Carbon, Land, Building, Water
Climate Change
IPCC Consensus Climate Change is Real
and Humans Contribute
Largest Contributor to Climate Change
= CO2 Emissions
US is Largest CO2 Emitter in the World
(China?)
Transportation Sector = 33%+
Socolow’s Stabilization Wedges
 Energy
Efficiency
 Demand Reduction
 Capture or Sequestration
 Helps Organize Approach
 Who
 Based
Can Act
on Existing Technologies
The Land Use Stabilization Wedge
Shift Human Settlements to Reduce Use of
Vehicles – Zoning and Planning
 Energy Efficient Buildings and Appliances
– Zoning and Code Amendments
 Wind and Solar Energy – Facilitated by
Zoning
 Protection of Undisturbed Lands – Local
Env. Laws = Sequestration
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It Could Get Worse! The Next 100
Million
 100
Million by 2043
 70 million New Homes
 100 Billion Square Feet of Nonresidential development
 Where this goes on the land is
critically important
Overall Impact: Development
“Opportunities”
66%+ of Development on the
Ground by 2050 Will be Built
between Now and Then
What we have here is a planning
challenge, in need of a strategic
approach.
Current Planning Paradigm
The Business as Usual Approach
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Suburban zoning creates single-family homes on
individual lots
Markets and zoning produce 2600 sq. ft. homes
Vehicle Trips/day + 7-15
VMTs Are Increasing @3X Growth in Population
Impervious coverage/lot = c. 9000 sq. ft.
No local energy efficiency requirements
Past Decade: 60% of Households Chose to Live in
Single-family neighborhoods
Urban Sprawl Created by Local
Planning
Zoning Districts Prescribe Low Density
Pattern in Suburban and Exurban Areas
 Developers Apply for Subdivision and Site
Plan Approvals
 Uncoordinated With Transportation
 Slowly the Municipally-Created “Plan” for
the Region is Built Out = Sprawl
 The Phantom Region is found in the
provisions of local zoning codes
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DoE Forecast: Business as Usual
 59%
Increase in Driving Between 2005
and 2030
 Outpaces 23% Projected Increase in
Population
 Overwhelms Both Gains in Vehicle
Fuel Economy and Lower Carbon
Fuel Content
The New Demography
Aging – Empty Nesters (40 million)
 Never Nesters/Singles (26 million)
 Young Immigrant Households
 60% of 100 Million will be inclined toward
Urban Living – 20 million households
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Shifting Ground by Planning for
Compact Development
Compact, mixed-use development features:
 smaller residential units
 can be more affordable,
 can offer bike and walking paths to
 retail and services and to
 schools and recreation, and, in some areas
 transit stops.
Two Types of Compact
Developments – TED and TOD
TED: Compact Development: 7-15 du/
acre. Requires fewer or shorter vehicle
trips but most are not served by
transit…yet = Less Driving.
 TOD: Higher Density Urban
Development: 15-40 du/acre - connected
to a transit stop and integrated with it =
Less Driving.
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Impact on Climate Change
Shifting 60% of New Population to
Compact Development will save 85
Million Metric Tons Per Year of
CO2 Emissions by 2030 (based on gradual
increase of average density from 7.6 to 13 du/acre)
Growing Cooler: ULI et al.
Why the Carbon Footprint is Lighter
Fewer Cars
 Service and Goods Within a Short Walk
 Transit and Parks Within a Short Walk
 Dwelling Units:
 Are Smaller
 Share Heating and Cooling
 Have Less Exposure to the Elements
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Shifting Ground: 60%
Half to TED and Half to TOD
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100 Million = 40 Million Households
Shift so that 60% chose either TED or TOD
Shifts 8 Million Households from Single Family
Pattern to TED or TOD
If half chose TOD, we need places for 4 million
households (10 million people) in Transit
Oriented Developments at Higher Urban
Densities
CO2 Saved Due to Shift of 4 Million
H.holds (10 Million People)
National Average CO2 Emissions: 25
metric tons
 Estimated TOD CO2 Emissions: 10 metric
tons
 Savings Per Person: 15 metric tons
 10 Million X 15 mt = 150 Metric Tons
Saved
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Impervious Coverage
Pollution – The Water Footprint
 Single
Family 1 Acre: 8713 sq. ft/unit*
 Hudson Park South: 370 sq. ft/unit
 Difference
8343 sq. ft./unit
 X 4 Million =
Less 33 Billion sq.ft
*EPA Estimate
Stormwater Runoff
Flooding – The Water Footprint
 Single Family 1 Acre* 18,700 cubic
feet/year/unit
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Hudson Park South: 266 units on 2.26
acres
229 cubic feet/year/unit
 18,
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471 cubic feet less
X 4 million households = 74 Billion
cubic feet less
*EPA Estimate
Potable Water Used
Shortages in 36 States - The Water
Footprint
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Single Family Homes Use 28
gallons/day/capita*
More than Multi-family Because of Outdoor
Use
28 X 10 Million People x 365 days
100 Billion Gallons/Year Less
* U.S. Public Health Service Estimates
The Building Footprint
Natural Resource Consumption
Fossil Fuel Used in Manufacture and
Construction
Single Family Homes: 2600 sq. ft.
 TOD Housing:
1500 sq. ft.
 Difference:
1100 sq. ft.
 X 4 Million:
4.4 Billion sq. ft.
Less Material and Construction
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Benefits of Lighter Footprints
Reduced Driving
 Reduced Size of Homes
 More Thermally Efficient Buildings
 Reduced Use of Building Materials
 Less Development on Undisturbed Land
 Less Water Use, Pollution, and Flooding
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Part II: Planning the Land Use
Stabilization Wedge
Northeast Climate Impacts
Assessment
 Municipal
Zoning Laws and Local
Incentives One of Top 3 Options for
Mitigating Climate Change
 Can Provide Low-Emission
Transportation Alternatives
 This requires Re-planning Human
Settlements: Shifting Ground!
Zoning Implements TOD and TED
Objectives and Standards
Evidence of Local Zoning Implementing TOD
and TED – carefully coordinated with present
and future transit services – is emerging.
Experimental Stage: What “Existing Land Use
Technologies” are There & How are They
Working?
Signs of Intelligent Life
The Land Use Solution
 Yonkers,
New York
 Bloomington, MN
 South Salt Lake City, Utah
 Town of Malta, New York
 Chapel Hill. North Carolina
 Austin, Texas
Common Elements
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Transit Area Defined – Present or Future
Transit Area Development Standards
Codified into Law
Mixed-Use, Compact Developments
Streamlined Approval Process
Incentives to Developers
Public Investments
A TOD Case Study
Yonkers Land Use Plan
Master Plan for the Waterfront
 Amended with Hudson Park Project in
Mind
 Plan Contains Development Details
 Plan Contains Performance Objectives
 Plan Approved by City Council
following Public Participation
Yonkers Zoning
Waterfront Area Zoned PDR
 PDR = Planned Development and
Redevelopment
 PDR Allows As of Right All Development
Details Contained in Developer’s Site Plan
 Site Plan Must Conform to Waterfront
Plan
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Environmental Review
 Generic
Environmental Impact
Statement Prepared on Waterfront
Plan
 Development Details and Impacts
Mitigated
 Citizens Involved in SEQRA
Process
Site Plan Approval
 Developer’s
Conforming Site Plan
Approved by Planning Commission
 Site Plan Requires No Further
Environmental Review
 Site Plan Approved
 Development Review Process
Streamlined
TOD Elements of Plan
Create Connection Between the Renovated
Train Station and the Waterfront (MetroNorth)
 Promote Mid-Rise, High Density
Development
 Include Restaurant and Retail On Street
 Include Office Development
 Improve Public Access and Activity on the
River (Scenic Hudson Easement)
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PDR Zoning - Summary
Waterfront Master Plan Approved by
Council
 Site Plan Approved by Planning
Commission
 Site Plan Conforms to Master Plan
 Upon approval of the site plan the uses
and building details contained in it “are
deemed to be the permitted uses and
dimensional requirements of the district.”
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Intergovernmental Planning
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Local Zoning and Planning
MTA Support and Cooperation
Federal Transportation Funding
County Recreation Funds and Plan
State Brownfields Regulations, Funding, and Tax
Incentives
State Empire Zone Tax Credits
Private Sector Risk Taking
TED in Malta, NY
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Downtown Overlay Zoning Adopted
Mixed-Use Town Center
¼ mile Radius – TND Design and Layout
Promotes Walkability – 5 Minute Standard
New developments “should be located within
1,320 feet of an existing or future transit stop.”
Compatible with Capital District Transportation
Plan
More To Come
 Data
Calculations Are Preliminary
 Ordinances Being Posted:
www.landuse.law.pace.edu
 Go there for Commentary and
Ordinances
 Contact me: [email protected]
Planning for a New Direction