Transcript Desert Outlook and Options for Action

GEO for World Deserts
Chapter 5 Outline
Desert Outlook and Options
for Action
September 7, 2005
Chapter Outline
1. Outlook for desert development
2. Sustainability and human well-being in
deserts
3. Closing remarks: options for action
1. Outlook for desert development
• Development scenarios: future trends for
water, biodiversity and land degradation
• Population dynamics and projections on
resource demand
• Human well-being and desert vulnerability
• Driving forces for foreseen changes
• Possible actions to be taken to generate
desired outcomes
2. Sustainability and human wellbeing in deserts
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Determinants of well-being in deserts
The maintenance of ecosystem services
The evolution of traditional knowledge
Adaptation of new technologies
Capacity building for desert sustainability
Public participation and socio-economic
organization
1. Outlook for desert
development
Development scenarios: Water
Current issues
• Exploitation of non-renewable water
resources
• Water conflicts and cooperation
• Quantity and quality
• Year-to-year variability
Future trends?
• Difficulty in estimating renewable water resources
• Climate change – increased aridity, decreasing water
resources?
• Growing population – growing demand
Dryland area by basin
Source: http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/
Virtual water flows
Source: http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/
Projected water supply in major watersheds in drylands, 2025
White, R. P. and Nackoney, J. (2003) Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services:
web-based geospatial analysis. World Resources Institute – p. 37
Development scenarios: Biodiversity
Current issues
• Status of biodiversity in drylands
• Inter-relationships between land degradation, climate
change and biodiversity
• Role of agro-diversity
Future trends?
• Lack of natural resource inventories
• MA projections: conversion of grassland
into other uses (agricultural, urban)
• Conservation challenges
Development scenarios: Land
degradation
Current issues
• Vulnerability of drylands to climatic and anthropogenic
stresses
• Extent of land degradation/ desertification (e.g.
GLASOD)
• Degradation in oases: salinization etc.
• Examples of land rehabilitation: Mortimore, Tiffen, Reij,
…
Future trends?
• Population pressures and climate stress likely to
increase  how to counter their impacts?
"Dust Bowl" in the 1930's
Picture from the National Archives. Source: http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/land_deg/land_deg.html
Gully erosion in an arid environment
Source: http://skagit.meas.ncsu.edu/~helena/gmslab/reports/CerlErosionTutorial/denix/Models%20and%20Processes/Gully.htm
Machakos – then and now
Iveti Hills June/July 1937
Iveti Hills January 1991
Tiffen, M., Mortimore, M. and Gichuki, F. (1994) More People, Less Erosion: Environmental Recovery in Kenya, John Wiley, Chichester. – p. 8
Population dynamics and resource
demand
• Population in drylands significant and
growing, despite environmental challenges
• 94% of dryland population currently live in
developing countries (Noin, 1998)
 resource demand on the rise
• Age structure and demographic transition
• Relationships between population,
resource demand, environment (Malthus,
Boserup, etc.)
White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services:
a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 5
White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services:
a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 9
Average animal population growth rates per country
Source?
Source: http://proutworld.prout.org/features/images/pgrow3.jpg
Human well-being and desert
vulnerability
• Human well-being  in how far dependent on
natural environment?
• Drylands as non-equilibrium ecosystems
• Biophysical and socio-economic vulnerability
• Vulnerability vs. resilience
 Global
climate change
 Anthropogenic impact
• “Differential” vulnerability (of human
communities)
Paradigm
nonequilibrium
Evolution of ecological paradigms
Threshold model
???
State-and-transition
model
equilibrium
1970
Succession model
Time
Importance of succession model
Succession model (Clements, 1916) Provided a planning
and management tool for much of the past century
• management objective: achieving an equilibrium
condition under an equilibrium grazing policy
• concept of carrying capacity: stocking rate at which
sustainable grazing pressure is achieved
Source: Westoby, Walker and Noy-Meir, 1989: p. 266
Alternative models
Threshold model (Holling, 1973 ; May, 1977 ; Hurd &
Wolf, 1974 ; Noy-Meir, 1975)
– Boundaries separate multiple equilibrium states in time and
space
– Sufficient modification of disturbance regime: threshold from one
stable state to an alternative stable state is crossed
– Ball and cup analogy
Source: Briske, Fuhlendorf and Smeins, 2003: p. 604
Alternative models
State-and-transition model (Westoby, Walker, and NoyMeir, 1989)
• Capacity and flexibility to integrate both equilibrium and
non-equilibrium vegetation dynamics
• Multiple dimensions encompassed
Source: Briske, Fuhlendorf and Smeins, 2003: p. 604
Source: http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html
Driving forces for foreseen changes
• Anthropogenic global warming: effect on
drylands not yet clear (evidence for both
increase and decrease in rainfall – depending on
season and region)
• Natural climatic cycles based on global
patterns of pressure cells: e.g. El Nino etc.
• Population growth: particularly in the
developing world
• Economic globalization: winners and losers
 Complication due to multiple exposure
Possible actions to be taken
• Poverty alleviation (esp. among
vulnerable households and women)
• Strengthening adaptive capacities and
local institutions (e.g. promoting
diversity; facilitating flexible use of labor,
etc.)
• “Partitioning” as a result of globalization
= global version of oasis economy
2. Sustainability and human
well-being in deserts
Supplementary
Concept of sustainability
• Brundtland Report (1987): “development that meets the
needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own needs”
• “Triple bottom line”: environment, economy, social equity
• Keywords: carrying capacity, maximum sustainable yield
How does this concept apply to drylands?
• Non-equilibrium dynamics
• Pulse-reserve model in ecology (Noy-Meir, 1973)
• Boom-and-bust economy
 A new definition of sustainability for drylands?
 How to buffer the “bust” in a boom-and-bust economy?
Source: http://www.camelworld.com/images/PICT1505.JPG
Determinants of well-being in
deserts
• Water availability
"In every drop of water there is a grain of gold." (Uzbek proverb)
 “By means of water, we give life to everything.” (Quran 21:30)
 "You can live without love, but not without water" (Talmud)
• Water conveyance and other infrastructure
(energy, transportation, markets)
• Policy framework (esp. water and land
tenure), social protection etc.
The maintenance of ecosystem
services
• How to value ecosystem services? – cost of
substitution
• Are they economic goods or human rights?
• Appropriate management decisions require
– reliable information on condition and trends of
ecosystems
– knowledge on possible consequences of alternative
choices
– enabling conditions to implement decisions
The evolution of traditional
knowledge
• Traditional knowledge  static or “backward”
• Guiding strategies: flexibility and opportunism
• Benefits from long presence and accumulated
“cultural wisdom” in very close contact with
environment
• Solutions local in scale (e.g. rainwater
harvesting) and site-specific
• Often sustainable, but…
 Do these strategies offer room for desired
“development”???
Adaptation of new technologies
• Renewable energy? (wind farms; solar farms;
etc.)
• Biotechnology?
• Closed environments?
• New technologies vs. socio-cultural background
(technologically suitable  socially or culturally
adapted)
• Maintenance issues
Capacity building for desert
sustainability
• Combining traditional knowledge and
scientific findings
• Not only bringing science to people:
outreach, workshops, community
involvement
• but also bringing people into science:
providing opportunities for higher
education for desert dwellers
Public participation and socioeconomic organization
• Decentralization
• Empowerment of local people as decisionmakers
• Participatory, “people-centered” appraisal
techniques (Chambers etc.)
3. Closing remarks: options for
action
Closing remarks: options for action
• What is economically feasible (different deserts in
different part of the world have different possibilities) vs.
what is ecologically desirable
• Preserving status quo in ecosystems vs. adapting
societies to changes in them
• Self-sufficient desert livelihoods/economies vs.
dependence on regional/global exchange processes
(“partitioning”)
• Salvation through new technologies? e.g. desalinization
of seawater
• Salvation through globalization?
• Or “precautionary principle”?
Tourism
Energy exploitation: wind
Source: http://donb.furfly.net/photo_cd/l/b86.html
Energy exploitation: solar
KJC Operating Company, Mojave Desert, California
Oasis economy
Deserts – not a barriers but conduits for trade
Closed environments