Transcript VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATON UNDER NATCOM

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VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATiON
Amit Garg
International Climate Change Conference, Johannesburg
October 19, 2005
Source: India’s Initial national Communication to UNFCCC
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The Setting
India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km)
Diverse physiographical features
Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains,
peninsular plateau and islands
Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but
support 16.2% of the worlds human population
Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon
Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity
and ecological regions
Under such diverse natural conditions, a billion people speaking different
languages, following different religions, inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in
harmony under a democratic system
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V & A activity under NATCOM
 Modeling of climate projections using GCMs and RCMs
Projected temperature, rainfall, extreme events
 Assessment of impacts and Vulnerability; different sectors
Water resources
Agriculture/crop production
Forests and natural ecosystems
Coastal zones
Industry, energy and infrastructure
Health; malaria
 Preliminary assessment of adaptation strategies
 Identify constraints to V&A assessments and adaptation
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V&A – Institutional Arrangement
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What are the projected changes in temperature on a regional scale?
Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2
Source: India’s Initial National Communication, 2002
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What are the projected changes in precipitation on a regional scale?
Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2
Source: India’s Initial National Communication, 2002
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Climate Projections: Summary
Maximum temperature: increase by 2-4°C during 2050s in regions above
25oN.
Minimum temperature: Increase up to 4oC all over the country.
May exceed 4°C over southern peninsula, northeast India and some parts of
Punjab, Haryana and Bihar.
Monsoon Rainfall: marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS)
: Large changes during non-monsoon months
Number of rainy days: Decrease in the number of rainy days over a major
part of the country. More in western and central part (by more than 15 days)
while near foothills of Himalayas (Uttaranchal) and in northeast India the
number of rainy days may increase by 5-10 days.
Extreme Rainfall events: overall increase in the rainy day intensity by 1-4
mm/day except for small areas in northwest India where the rainfall intensities
decrease by 1 mm/day.
Cyclonic storms:
projected
Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is
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What are the projected changes in river water availability on a regional
scale?
River basins of Mahi, Pennar,
Sabarmati and Tapi are likely to
experience constant water
scarcity and shortage.
River basins of the Cauvery,
Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are
likely to experience seasonal or
regular water stressed conditions
Acute physical water scarce
conditions
Constant water scarcities and
shortage
Seasonal / regular water stressed
conditions
Rare water shortages
Source: India’s Initial National
Communication, 2002
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Agriculture
 Agriculture productivity will be impacted due to
Changes in temperature and rainfall
Rise in CO2 concentration in atmosphere
Occurrence of pests and disease
 V&A ASSESSMENT INCLUDED;
 Changes in food production with respect to rainfall
 Effect of increase in temperature and CO2 on simulated grain yields
(rice)
 Impact of climate change on productivity of irrigated wheat
National assessment based on climate impact modeling not yet feasible
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Impacts of climate change- findings
Projection of a general decrease in rice yield with increase in
temperature
Wheat yield are projected to decline from 4% to 24% in different
regions
- (under scenario of; CO2of 425 ppm and 2o C warming)
Doubling of CO2 & warming (3o C) accompanied with reduction in
rainfall will lead to;
- reduction in yields of several dry-land crops
Loss in farm-level net revenue predicted
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Forestry Sector
National level modeling undertaken to assess impacts of climate change on forest
ecosystems;
 applying the climate projections derived from HadRM2
 using BIOME 3 vegetation response model
Results
Shift in forest types / boundary:
 75% of grids with forests are expected experience changes in forest
types
 70% of Dry savannah is likely to change to Xeric Woodland
 Dry moist savannah in in the North-Western parts, is likely to change
to Xeric Shrub land
 Moist savanna -located in North-East and parts of the Southern India
is likely to be converted into Tropical Seasonal Forest
Productivity:
Increase in net primary productivity (NPP) in more than 75% of the
grids with forests
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Biodiversity
Climate change is projected to increase species losses, particularly due to shift in
forest boundaries
Habitats of many species will move north ward from their current locations
Upward migration of plants in the Himalayas could reduce the alpine meadows and
related vegetation, thus impacting the habitats of several high altitude
mammals including wild sheep, goat, antelope and cattle.
Increase in precipitation over northeastern India leading to severe floods could
place the wildlife in Kaziranga National Park at risk
Present vegetation map
Expected biome types
under climate projections in
2050s.
Dry savannah
Xeric Shrub land
Xeric woodland
Tropical Seasonal Forest
Boreal Evergreen
Present Biome Types
under CTL run
Tundra
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Natural Ecosystems
Broad preliminary national level assessment of impact of climate change on natural
ecosystems (no modeling attempted)
Results
Grasslands: Under enhanced CO2 and increase
in temperature, C4 species are likely to have a
predominance over C3 plants.
Mangroves: Mangroves just next to the sea will
be submerged due to SLR and plants with high
salinity tolerance will survive
Increased glacier-melt bringing larger quantities
of fresh water will favor mangrove species with
least tolerance to salinity
Present distribution of natural
ecosystems in India
Coral reefs: Increase in temperature would lead
to bleaching of Corals and submergence due to
SLR
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Health: An Overview
Impact of climate change on incidence of malaria in India is assessed
Results
It is projected that by 2080s, malaria will penetrate elevations above 1800
meters and some coastal areas.
10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector
breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000.
The transmission windows in northern states of Jammu and Kashmir and
the western state of Rajasthan are likely to increase by 3 to 5 months
In the southern states, however, the window is likely to shorten by 2 to 3
months
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Adaptation Strategies
 Preliminary assessments made for different sectors;
including assessment of current policies and
programmes in relation to vulnerability
 Most technologies & measures to address current
stresses are also relevant to adapt to climate change
(water, forest, agriculture, etc.)
 Additional technologies & measures needed to address
climate impacts
 Further analysis needed to identify; adaptation
technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs
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Features / Limitations
 Impact assessment is made using climate change projections
using a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario
(IS92a)
 Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level
 Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional
level (forests, crop production, water)
 Limited data availability
 Limited time (<12 months) and resources
PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF V&A MADE UNDER THE
NATCOM PROJECT
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Future - V & A
 Need for improved and reliable regional climate models and
climate projections for impact assessment
 Need for improved climate change impact or response models
- Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated
 Appropriate data generation for modeling
 Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of
vulnerable regions, socio-economic systems
 Development of adaptation strategies
 Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained research
teams
 Financial and institutional support needed
www.natcomindia.org
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