Transcript Planning for Drought: Moving from Crisis to Risk Management

Managing Drought:
A Roadmap for Change in the
United States
Dr. Donald A. Wilhite, Director
National Drought Mitigation Center
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln U.S.A.
Managing Drought and Water
Scarcity in Vulnerable Environments:
A Roadmap for Change in the U.S.
Report online at
http://www.geosociety.org/
The Cycle of Disaster Management
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience.
proactive
reactive
Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes.
Components of Drought
Risk Management
(natural event)
Are there
trends in
exposure?
(social factors)
What factors
are affecting
vulnerability?
What is ‘drought?’
A deficiency of precipitation from
expected or normal that extends over a
season or longer period of time and
results in water supply that is insufficient
to meet the needs of human activities
and the environment.
Simply stated, it’s when ‘demand
exceeds supply’ but . . . . .
% Area Affected
1930s
1950s
Key observations:
• Drought—normal part of climate
• Average annual spatial extent = 15%
• Peak spatial extent = 65%
• Year-to-year variability
• Recent pattern over two decades
1987-present
Previous ‘Calls for Action’
General Accounting Office
Western Governors’ Association
National Academy of Sciences
Great Lakes Commission
American Meteorological Society
Interstate Council on Water Policy
National Drought Policy Commission
National Drought Policy Commission
Report to Congress in
2000 in response to the
National Drought Policy
Act of 1998.
Recommended creating
a National Drought
Policy.
National Drought
Preparedness Act:
2001, 2003, 2005.
Why the sense of urgency?
Multiple severe droughts since 1996 have
had severe impacts and have raised
concern about increasing vulnerability.
U.S. population is growing rapidly,
especially in the water-short western
states and the southeast.
Water demand is increasing dramatically,
conflicts between water users are
increasing.
21%
28%
30%
20%
66%
26%
40%
20%
31%
23%
2000
2001
2002
Improving drought management is a national issue!
2003
2004
2006
Why the sense of urgency?
Water supplies are fully or overappropriated in many river basins.
All levels of government are poorly
prepared for drought—reactive, crisis
management approach.
Existing water laws and institutions are
based on outmoded values and goals.
Drought plans exist at
the
• state, river basin,
local and tribal levels
of government.
• Response oriented
• Lack of coordination
Bottom Line:
No national drought plan or policy currently exists.
Why the sense of urgency?
Climate change is likely to increase the
frequency, severity, and duration of
drought.
Increasing temperatures, increased
evaporation, increased heat stress/heat waves
Changes in precipitation amount, intensity,
distribution, and form, increased variability
Reduced snowpack, stream flow, ground water
recharge, lower reservoir levels
Temperature trends (°F per century) since 1920
cooler warmer
3.6°F
2.7°F
1.8°F
0.9°F
PNW warmed
+1.5o F during
the 20th century
Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997
Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western
North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49
Portland, Oregon
Portland’s water
needs by 2040
will increase by 60
mgd, 40 mgd from
regional growth;
20 mgd from
climate change
impacts.
Climate change
impacts on water
supply
16%
Climate change
impacts on water
demand
18%
Impact of population
growth on demand
(no climate change)
66%
Science and Policy
Recommendations
Implement a national drought policy as
called for by NDPC and drought
mitigation planning at all levels of
government.
Include the potential impacts of
projected changes in temperature and
precipitation due to climate change in
drought risk mitigation planning.
Science and Policy
Recommendations
Create a new ‘national water culture’ that
promotes sustainable water management
practices to meet long-term societal
needs.
Broad educational initiative to foster partnerships
between levels of government, universities, and
public.
Increased public education on the need for longterm drought mitigation and water resources
management.
Science and Policy
Recommendations
Engage stakeholders within common
hydrologic basins in water and drought
management planning.
Foster place-based science with
community stakeholder involvement as
part of public education and outreach for
natural resources decision makers,
integrating local climate and water
information and climate projections.
Science and Policy
Recommendations
Maintain and enhance existing data
networks and data sets, enhance timely
delivery of data and information to
decision makers and the public.
Fully fund and implement the National
Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
Foster development of sector-based decision
support tools for natural resource managers,
agricultural producers, and policy makers.
NIDIS passed by
Congress in late 2006.
Implementation Plan
issued by NOAA in
June 2007.
Multi-agency and
organizational effort.
Drought Portal under
development.
Science and Policy
Recommendations
Encourage use of risk-based approaches
for assessing multiple potential future
climate and water management scenarios.
Support research that improves
fundamental scientific understanding of
drought, i.e., causes, predictability, impacts,
mitigation actions, planning methodologies,
and policy alternatives.
Science and Policy
Recommendations
Value water at its full worth in the
development of water resource
management and drought mitigation plans.
Harmonize roles and responsibilities of
cooperating institutions and reduce
conflicts to achieve more effective decision
making.
Fragmentation of responsibilities within and
between levels of government constrains effective
drought management.
It’s time for action!
http://www.geosociety.org/
Visit the NDMC
drought.unl.edu
[email protected]